NWC Statistics Loss

Looks like the NWC is going to be fun this season. Not to spoil anything below but three of the top 4 teams in statistics loss (worded as a good thing but it’s a bad thing) finished in the top 3 last season. That means the door is open to the entire conference in 2022. With that said, Whitworth and Pacific Lutheran will finish in the top 2 in some order because that’s what they do (since 2013).

I’ve given you the SCAC statistics loss article and the SCIAC statistics loss article so now we set our sights on the Pacific Northwest. Once again, let’s go over some background on what I’m about to go over:

Remember that statistics loss are the statistics lost by the graduating seniors to a program. These are the statistics that need to be replaced just to get back to where you were in the previous year. I’m mainly interested in the percentage of Points lost because history shows us that anything over 45% typically means a worse year to the program. There are always exceptions so save the hate comments if you find your team on the wrong side of this mark. Losses to assists, aces and digs are also tracked but history tells us that finding setters and liberos is easier than hitters.

I will also remind people of the “Super Seniors” (i.e., the players who retain an extra year of eligibility due to the 2020 Covid year). They make this exercise a little tricky because I often don’t know where they will pop up until rosters are released.

For today’s article, let’s go by last year’s order since I kind of spoiled things in the opener.

Whitworth had a great year in 2021 going 21-3 losing to Hope in the first round of the NCAA in four competitive sets. They look to be losing three seniors that will lead to these losses:

• Kills 30.6%

• Assists 51%

• Aces 59.1%

• Digs 45.2%

• Blocks (S/A) 5.6% / 16%

• Points 31.2%

Some scary numbers there (Assists & Aces) but the points loss is manageable. The problem is that their main loss is Maddie Lee who was simply the best player in the NWC last year. The bulk of the losses in kills, digs, blocks and points are from her and Maddie Lee’s don’t grow on trees. (You may think that I spend a lot of time rhyming but it simply comes naturally to me…you see.) What will be interesting to see (for everyone but especially Whitworth) is their recruiting class. A couple of years back they lost over 70% of their points and won their conference because of an amazing recruiting class (that included Lee). Can they do something close to that? Expect a little bit of a drop off for the Pirates in the fall but they should still be one of the favorites for the NWC title.

Pacific Lutheran went 16-9 and finished 2^nd in conference but they are going to be close to that magic 45% mark in points loss. They are losing an amazing setter in Emily Dulaney and 6 seniors in total that result in this:

• Kills 44.8%

• Assists 87.3%

• Aces 20.1%

• Digs 23.4%

• Blocks (S/A) 36.8% / 45.2%

• Points 42%

Those points are going to be tough to overcome. I haven’t talked about Points/Set in any of my “Loss” articles, yet, so let’s do that now. Whitworth averaged about 1 Point/Set more than PLU did in 2021. We now see that Whitworth is going to retain more of their offense in 2022 so it shows the pressure the Lutes will be under in order to recapture the NWC crown. PLU also does a good job at recruiting but right now you’d have to think they are more likely to stumble in the fall then they are to challenge for the title. That’s, of course, if you disregard 8-years of NWC volleyball history.

Puget Sound was our third-place team in 2021 but they are going to suffer the most points loss of any NWC team this year. They are losing 7 seniors including setter Sarah Blumenfeld and outside Jordan Holman. Here are their losses:

• Kills 44.1%

• Assists 64.2%

• Aces 69.1%

• Digs 50.9%

• Blocks (S/A) 51.2% / 39.8%

• Points 47.2%

One thing UPS has going for it is a large roster and a coach that will roll out different lineups so there are experienced players on the team already. Their key is whether those players are ready to step up and take over those rolls that are departing. Back to Points/Set and UPS was right around where PLU was last year. The difference in these two teams will probably come down to which team develops their backups from last year and who recruits better. Regardless, I see these two teams being very close to each other (again) this season.

George Fox tied for fourth last season and if you want a dark horse in 2022 then it’s going to be the Bruins. They are going to suffer the least points loss to graduation in the fall so they should be primed to make a run at the NWC title. They will only lose two seniors and both were defensive players (including the great Sophia Lawrence). Here are the team’s losses:

• Kills 0.7%

• Assists 7.7%

• Aces 30.8%

• Digs 39.2%

• Blocks (S/A) 0.0% / 0.0%

• Points 4.0%

Just 4% loss in points means we should see the Bruins, at least, repeat their success from 2021. Now they were about 1 Point/Set lower than PLU and UPS (and 2 P/S below Whitworth), so they need those teams to fall while they not only maintain, but get better. I’d be surprised if George Fox doesn’t get to that 15.7 Points/Set range this season and that typically gets you in the running. The question for all of these teams is can they get into the 16s? That is what’s going to make this conference so much fun in the fall.

The other fourth place team was Pacific but they look like they are going to have to fight to maintain in 2022. I have them losing 3 seniors including their second-best hitter in Elika Unti and their libero in Haley Walz. Their losses look like this:

• Kills 29.4%

• Assists 6.1%

• Aces 27.2%

• Digs 36.7%

• Blocks (S/A) 53.6% / 43.7%

• Points 30.7%

Sometimes when you look at the losses other than points, you can spot a problem. Those losses in blocks means that two of the seniors are middles and that can be a tough position to replace. They look to have one ready to go but it will be interesting to see who the second middle will be. One big thing Pacific has going in their favor is the outstanding first-year Mara Murphy who led the team in hitting last year. You have to think there is still tremendous growth there and that should help make up some of the hitting losses. If the Boxers can find their middle and get some growth then I think they should be challenging for one of the top spots in the conference.

Willamette and Lewis & Clark tied for 6^th in conference last year but they are going in two different directions when it comes to their seniors. Starting first with Willamette, they are losing only 2 seniors although one is Natalie Klotz. Klotz was their best hitter although she suffered an injury and only played about half of their matches last season. Here is how their team looks:

• Kills 17.8%

• Assists 2.0%

• Aces 11.1%

• Digs 13.2%

• Blocks (S/A) 5.9% / 6.7%

• Points 16.1%

One way not to have a lot of statistic losses is for your best hitter not to play much the previous year, I guess. Willamette had a very small roster so everyone played quite a lot last season. That will only help their growth going into 2022. They were actually pretty close in Points/Set to both George Fox and Pacific last season and I suspect they hang around that same number in 2022. I envision them finishing between 4^th and 6^th. To me, they will need to get some immediate contributions from their recruits to move up and prove me wrong.

Lewis & Clark look to be losing 8 seniors including their outstanding setter in Michelle McGinn. That’s a lot to overcome and it’s not surprising that they exceed the 45% Points loss that I tend to worry about. Here are their numbers:

• Kills 45%

• Assists 89.9%

• Aces 38.2%

• Digs 47.1%

• Blocks (S/A) 56.1% / 60.8%

• Points 45.5%

When a team loses almost half of their squad, you have to be worried. They are also getting a new coach so Lewis & Clark is going to be a bit of a wildcard in 2022. I fear a big step back although they still have some outstanding players on the squad. Recruits are going to play a huge role here and maybe they get a Whitworth type haul this summer and surprise the conference.

Whitman went 6-19 last season but are in the second-best shape as far as returners are concerned. They will need to figure out their setting situation after losing Tate Cadang but this is a team that will be interesting to watch in the fall. Here are their numbers:

• Kills 8.2%

• Assists 87.1%

• Aces 26.8%

• Digs 30.6%

• Blocks (S/A) 7.2% / 13.1%

• Points 10.7%

Whitman has a nice sized roster and 10 players got significant time last year so they should be getting better. I think they will be right in that Willamette area in the fall but with the ability to finish even higher. I’m always impressed by the tenacity of this program and how they play outstanding defense against better teams. Retain and then add some more offense and they could be my surprise team in the fall.

Our final team is Linfield who finished 5-17 and won only one conference match but this was actually an improvement. That sounded kind of rude but I mean to say is that this is a team on the upswing and their statistics loss reflects more upswing to come:

• Kills 18.6%

• Assists 0.8%

• Aces 4.2%

• Digs 9.5%

• Blocks (S/A) 3.3% / 9.5%

• Points 15.5%

Linfield loses two seniors including Regan Dean who was their second-best hitter last season. The team has a number of juniors from last year that are ready to step up but, to me, the key is going to be those first-years and sophomores that didn’t get much time in 2021. Are they ready to step up and contribute? They have a rather large roster and they weren’t far off the Points/Set pace of the teams ahead of them in the standings. Could we see both Whitman and Linfield rise up and surprise some teams in the NWC this season? I’m not counting on top 3 finishes but I think both could end the year in the middle of the pack.

Looking at the conference as a whole and I think this may be the most competitive conference top to bottom in the west this year. We should see the top teams fall back a bit while I see the rest of the teams (outside of Lewis & Clark) climbing. There may not be a lot separating these teams come October. The downside to that is if these schools don’t play well outside of conference early in their schedules, then it pretty much locks them down to one NCAA bid because they may all beat up on themselves. Now, do well early and all heck will break out because I still think it will be very hard for anyone to go undefeated in conference as we saw Whitworth do last year. Again, the NWC is going to be fun.

My last look will be the ASC although I can’t forget about UC Santa Cruz.