NWC Preview/Predictions

We move on to the NWC today and accurately determine their exact order of finish. Yeah, that’s definitely not going to happen here. I’ve been saying all summer that this conference should be pretty wide open so let’s see if that impression was correct. Remember, after the predictions I have team blurbs for each school.

Here is the agenda for the week (links are provided for my past work):

• Monday – ASC

• Tuesday – NWC

• Wednesday – SCAC

• Thursday – SCIAC

• Friday – West Regional Rankings

NWC

1. Pacific

2. Puget Sound

3. Whitworth

4. Pacific Lutheran

5. Willamette

6. George Fox

7. Linfield

8. Lewis & Clark

9. Whitman

Conference Tournament Champion – None (I bet I get that right!)

Team Blurbs (Records and finish are from 2018)

Pacific (18-8 overall and 11-5 conference – 3^rd Place)

The Boxers have not published their roster but I’ve been told that their core is definitely coming back. That’s the good news but the bad is that they graduated some key players that will lead to a 33.7% points loss, 32.2% digs loss and 82.8% assists loss. Assuming the setting situation gets resolved, these are losses that can be overcome and Pacific is returning the second highest points total in the conference. I really struggled with these first two teams as I think Puget Sound is probably better overall than the Boxers so why did Pacific get the first spot? In the end, I think the Boxers’ core led by Duncan, Ivkovic, Zweifel and Walz is better and for the most part they are more experienced. It’s this experience that should give the edge to Pacific but there are so many variables at play that I’m not really confident. On the flip side, I am a little worried about the easier schedule that Pacific will play leading up to conference play. One or two early surprises/upsets in conference will be enough to bounce a team out of the title race so Pacific needs to be ready for the better teams they will play in the NWC. The true wildcard for the title may come down to who gets the best recruits and which of them can make an impact. I don’t know who will benefit from this but I don’t believe anyone in the West Region will bring in more players than Pacific (includes their JV team).

Key Out of Conference Matches – St. Thomas (MN).

Points Returning – 985

Puget Sound (12-12 overall and 9-7 conference – 4^th Place)

The Loggers are a young group that ended the year with 22 on the roster with only 4 graduating. They’ve announced 8 new recruits for the season so the roster will be even bigger in 2019. It’s safe to say this team is on the rise but the question for me in this article was how high they will get in 2019. Maybe I’m just drinking the sap but I almost picked them for the NWC title and the associated NCAA Tournament berth. The Loggers roster is not published but right now they are returning the most points in the conference and don’t lose much in the way of assists or digs. (They are losing 16.1% of their points.) One concern was how the Loggers finished the year after jumping to an 8-1 conference record only winning one more match the rest of the way. The reason for the drop was due to injuries but did this young team learn from that and will it be deep enough to compensate for injuries if they hit again? I do love like the Loggers’ schedule as they make use of the three open weeks to start the year. They really do ease into the year with some teams they should beat the first week before taking on the best the SCIAC has to offer the next two weeks. I spoke of the recruits in the Pacific write-up and I believe there will be a couple of players for the Loggers that will compete for court time right off the bat. This could be the edge that carries them to the title. I may not know who is going to win this conference but I will tell you what I do know. Puget Sound is building something special and the NWC and the West Region would be wise to take notice.

Key Out of Conference Matches – CMS, Cal Lutheran, Whittier and La Verne.

Points Returning – 1137

Whitworth (19-8 overall and 13-3 conference – 2^nd Place)

The Pirates always seem to be in the race for the NWC title but I believe their graduation losses (especially Jessica Schmautz) will be too much for them to recover from this season. Make no mistake as the Pirates do have some really good talent coming back but they have to make up their 47% points loss and their 38.6% loss in digs. They are playing maybe the toughest schedule in the NWC so their new players will be put to the test early, which should help. The wildcard for the Pirates will be their recruits. They are only bringing in five players but four of them are 6’ or taller including a 6’2” setter. If a couple of these players prove they can play at a high level early then the Pirates could be the favorites for the NWC title. It really is a three-team race and after writing these blurbs I’m convinced the margin between these teams is even smaller than I thought going in. It’s always risky in these previews to go against the teams that have had proven success, which is what I’m doing by not having Whitworth (and Pacific Lutheran) in the top 2 so we’ll see if it burns me in 3-months.

Key Out of Conference Matches – Carthage, Whittier, Southwestern, Birmingham-Southern and Colorado College.

Points Returning – 862

Pacific Lutheran (21-4 overall and 14-2 conference – 1^st Place)

The Lutes have not published their roster but we do know that five players graduated and that group includes three of their best four hitters and their libero. More specifically that’s 56.5% of their points along with 63.9% of their digs. The Lutes are also losing their leader in assists so that’s 51.5% of the assists leaving, as well. These are typically numbers that are really hard to overcome even when the team brings in 9 recruits as the Lutes are doing in 2019. Overall the team is only returning 606 points, which would normally push any other team further down these predictions but the Lutes have proven over the last few years that they can contend. One interesting note about the 2018 team is that they really didn’t score the number of points you would expect from a conference title winner. What they did do well was hold their opposition to a ridiculously low hitting percentage (good for 6^th in nation) and if they can replicate that this season then maybe they have a chance. Again, the problem is their graduating seniors who were part of the best blocking team in the nation and their outstanding libero that kept rallies alive when they long should have died out. Honestly, the more I write this blurb the more I want to move them down a couple of spots but I’m putting my faith in the Lutes mystique.

Key Out of Conference Matches – Southwestern, Trinity, UT-Dallas, Whittier and La Verne.

Points Returning – 606

Willamette (10-15 overall and 7-9 conference – 4^th Place)

The Bearcats looked to be doing fine with senior graduation but they have released their roster and we see a couple of significant losses. That leaves the Bearcats with 16 on the roster and half of those players will be new recruits. The team will need to make up 32.8% loss in points, 32% loss in digs and 88% loss in assists. I will say that since the Bearcats have a traditionally strong New England team on the schedule that they can become my favorite NWC team by beating MIT this season. Oh, I do need to apologize to Natalie Klotz for not including her in the key returners articles (I really blame the NWC for not giving her an award in 2018). She led the Bearcats in points and averaged 3.2 points/set and will be needed even more this season if Willamette wants to crack the top 3. Another important player could be middle Kyana Benjamin who if she earns a position would provide some needed height to the team.

Key Out of Conference Matches – St. Thomas (MN), La Verne, MIT and Colorado College.

Points Returning – 841

George Fox (11-13 overall and 5-7 conference – 7^th Place)

I had the Bruins fourth last year in my preview and they finished 7^th. I should probably be a little miffed at this but I don’t take these things personally. I have them 6^th this season and a spot or two higher wouldn’t surprise me. Of course, if they want to test me and finish lower than I’m predicting again then I’ll probably just make them 15^th in this 9-team conference starting next year moving forward. The Bruins are losing their best hitter due to graduation which contributes greatly to their 39.1% loss in points. They are also losing 42.6% of their assists and 30.8% of their digs. The Bruins continue to be a smaller team with no one as far as I can tell hitting 6’ or more but they are returning the 4^th most points in the conference so we know that won’t hinder them too much. They do need to find a setter to pair up with Laney Search and it appears they only have one coming in as a new recruit. No pressure but she’ll need to be ready or it’s 15^th place from here on out. I would love nothing better than to see the Bruins take a step forward and compete for the NWC title while also doing some damage in the Augsburg Invite where they will play some very tough out-of-region teams.

Key Out of Conference Matches – St. Thomas (MN), UW-Whitewater and UW-Eau Claire.

Points Returning – 850.5

Linfield (6-18 overall and 1-15 conference – 8^th Place)

The 2018 Linfield volleyball season was a tough one in more ways than one. They saw their long-time coach retire the year before and there was definitely some conflict with the new coach. It will be important for this squad to jell early and play together as a team or they will be buried again in this conference. With that said, I do believe they will improve and I would say their ceiling could even be a top 4 finish. The Wildcats are definitely a team that will be interesting to watch in 2019 and an important one for the West Region as they play a tough out-of-region schedule. I haven’t seen the 2019 roster and I have only found 4 recruits so far for them so it will be important for all of their players to return that were on the roster at the end of the season. That more than anything will make or break this team looking towards this season as they do return some good talent.

Key Out of Conference Matches – Concordia (WI), CMS, Gustavas Adolphus and St. Thomas (MN).

Points Returning – 739.5

Lewis & Clark (13-10 overall and 6-10 conference – Tied 5^th Place)

The Pioneers were a success story last season doing damage outside the region and finishing with a record above 0.500. I don’t have their 2019 roster but I do know that they are taking a huge hit due to senior graduation (they will miss Kortney Meyer). The Pioneers will lose 57.9% of their points, 51.9% of their digs and 53.4% of their assists and that’s assuming no underclassmen leave the program. These types of numbers typically indicate a rebuild for a program, which is why I have them in the 8^th spot in the NWC this season.  A lot will fall to Pakaki-Pias as the team will have to become more balanced with the loss of Meyer. They have a number of other players ready to step up and if that happens sooner rather than later then they have a chance to break into that tier of teams ahead of them in my predictions.

Key Out of Conference Matches – St. Thomas (MN).

Points Returning – 538

Whitman (10-14 overall and 6-10 conference – Tied 5^th Place)

The Blues have published their roster that includes their recruits and it includes some good height. The problem for the Blues and why I have them bringing up the rear in the conference is what they lost to graduation (61.7% in points, 34.9% in digs and 66% of their blocks). That points loss number is just HUGE and means they are returning the least amount of points in the conference. I think they will battle with the Pioneers for the last two spots this year as they rebuild towards a contending team. I do like some of their recruits and this could be the key to a higher finish than what I’ve predicted. Again, when it comes to the Pioneers and Blues it’s really about the talent they have lost to graduation and me not really sure how they will overcome those losses.

Key Out of Conference Matches – Saint Benedict, Trinity, Minnesota-Morris, DePauw and Aurora.

Points Returning – 526.5