NWC 2024 Statistics Loss

I’ve got the third article in our senior statistics loss series. This time around we cover the NWC. I’ve previously covered the SCAC and the SCIAC. As a reminder as to why I do this:

Through the years, I’ve noticed that when it comes to DIII, it’s the Points that matter and really nothing else translates into wins and losses. Programs seem to more easily replace setters and liberos than hitters so when we see a Points loss of around 45%, we get concerned. (Points are kills + aces + blocks.) We’ve also seen that the bigger programs are more easily able to replace those losses because of their ability to recruit and because of the talent on their bench. Still, even the biggest programs will struggle with Points losses start to exceed that 45% mark.

Remember that we still have Super Seniors out there so these statistics are always going to be off for some schools. I also hope that I get a few emails/comments from NWC fans/coaches/players that let me know who is coming back.

Here are the statistics lost to senior graduation in the NWC sorted by Points Lost:

At first glance, the NWC will be seeing a lot of new liberos this season. They always have really good ones and one reason is that they do a great job at recruiting Hawaii, which seems to grow them like pineapples (I do love pineapple). Can I just stop down for a second and just think about Maui Gold Pineapples? I miss them so much. We don’t get them here in Texas, unfortunately. Our pineapples come from Costa Rica and they are just not the same.

Alright, back to what is important and looking at points lost, we see three teams that hit that magical 45% mark. That’s a red flag for George Fox, Whitman and Puget Sound. I noticed the liberos at first, but the setters also take a hit this year with 6 teams losing at least one setter. The NWC is typically a one team conference when it comes to the NCAA Tournament and you can see that with the Points/Set numbers. It goes further than that, of course, because this conference is so isolated and they really only get 2 weeks to play outside of conference. They really need one of these schools (at least) to increase their travel budget so they get 3 weeks away from the northwest (and then do really well). As it stands, they just have to watch their champion go and upset a 2 seed in the tournament only for it to be forgotten come next year’s selection.

Looking at the teams and starting with George Fox and yelp. That’s a lot of points to lose and then to lose your setter and libero is quite a hit. GFU only had 15 on the roster and look to lose up to 7 to graduation. They do have two 200+ point players returning in Emily Bragg and Addison Robertson, but if they lose NWC Player of the Year, senior Kassandra Staton, then I think they will really struggle next season.

Whitman is another program that tends to have a smaller roster (only 13 played in 2023). They “only” lose three players but it’s their two 6-roation outsides and their setter so huge problem there. Their highest point player returning only had 159 last season. The Blues will be looking for offense that is for sure.

Puget Sound is not a program with a small roster. The Loggers had 24 players contribute in 2023 with 6 of them listed as seniors in the NCAA database. So, they lose a significant chunk of points but they seem to be better positioned to compensate for those losses. Looking at their Points/Set and the bigger issue may be closing that gap to the 2023 leaders. They need to recover what they lost but also pickup an extra 1.5 Points/Set in the process. Still, this team has a slew of first-years and sophomores and you have to think a number of them are ready to step up.

Pacific Lutheran is coming off an undefeated NWC season and an impressive showing in the NCAA Tournament but they are finally losing those Super Seniors that came back to make that possible. The Lutes are another team with a large roster (22) and they are returning outstanding players in Olivia Evaro, Claire Hindman and Elle Thomas so they have a nice base to work from next season. It will be fascinating to see who picks up the mantle from libero Halle Hetzler (a personal favorite).

It’s kind of funny to see Whitworth right next to Pacific Lutheran in Points Lost as these teams always seem to be paired together (typically in the standings). Usually, one loses more points to graduation so you know the other will be the favorite in conference. That’s not the case this year as 2024 looks to be pretty wide open based on these numbers. Whitworth had 15 players contribute last season but I never worry about them as they recruit well and seem to do a great job with transfers. The database lists 4 seniors with the big hole to fill being middle Kaity Barr. It was nice to see her recover from her 2022 injury and have such an outstanding senior season.

Getting down to the teams that are most likely losing just one (or less) significant offensive threat but three of them finished below 0.500 and all four had less than 15 Points/Set. Starting with Lewis & Clark and they only had 12 players contribute last season. Their big issue is losing Izzy Willis and her 334 points but it also doesn’t help to lose libero Katie Shimaura. So, yeah, they lose just one significant offensive threat but she meant so much to the team’s success.

Pacific had a down season as they typically are in the top half of the conference but not in 2023. They always have a large roster and can also pull from their JV program. They will be losing their setter in Emily Cheavtharn but the big offensive loss is Alison Brown (250 Points). What will help the most is the return of a healthy Mara Murphy but they do need more contribution up and down their roster. I’d bet a lot that this will be a bounce back year for the Boxers but I’m not sure they have enough to win conference.

Linfield was a nice story in 2023 going from 8-15 in 2022 to 8-15 in 2023. Why is that nice? Well, I had them with a 74.4% Points Loss in 2022 so to maintain their level of play with so much going out the door points (no pun intended) to a program that is becoming more stable. Their only loss this year looks to be setter Claire Johnson, which will be tough to replace but the points look to be remaining. This is a young team that has the chance to really build and anything less than 0.500 would have to be a disappointment in 2024. No pressure.

Our final team is Willamette, which put together a good season and definitely out performed their Points/Set number to gain one of the four spots to the inaugural NWC Tournament. Another small roster team with 13 players contributing but no offensive starters seem to be leaving. I’d be higher on them if they weren’t losing setter Emma Porter and libero Shyla Sato who were the glue to that 2023 team. Still, our research says replacing a Porter and a Sato is easy! (I’m sure Coach Hallock does not agree.) It will be interesting to see if Willamette can make that happen and build on their fine season. I’m a little worried that even with just 8.3% Points Loss that the Bearcats could be the exception to our research and it wouldn’t surprise me if they hold steady or even drop a win or two next season.

I’ve added Points/Set to my articles this year and it’s a little interesting that this conference ranges from mid 13s to mid 16s. Just 3 Points separate the top of the standings to the bottom. Again, small margins but even adding just 1 point a set is so hard to do. You really need the team, as a whole, to improve or get one or two players really stepping up. You never know which team has a future All-American sitting on their bench waiting for their chance, but that is a rare event when it happens. Willamette does stand out a bit with a 14-10 record at 14.43 Points/Set where a team like Pacific had a much worse record but was better in Points/Set. Whitman also has a worse record while being just 0.31 Points/Set behind.

I’ve got the ASC to go (plus UC Santa Cruz) and then I dive into the teams nationally. I did get a Juniata report (Yikes! They are out doing Trinity, it seems) but nothing from Hope, yet. Don’t make me activate my Latvian Hackers!