NPI Rankings (Week 6)

I normally do the Top 25 before the NPI article but this one is more interesting. Let’s dive into the latest update of the simulated NPI rankings.

Juniata is still number one with a 3-point lead over MIT. MIT has a 2-point lead over Johns Hopkins who has a 1.3-point lead over a group of teams. 65 points is where things start to condense and it only gets thicker the lower you go.

Not shown on the rankings page is our tournament predictions. Again, the way this is done is to give the Automatic Qualifier (AQ) or Pool A bid to the team who has the highest NPI in a conference. The rest of the teams in that conference are then eligible for the at-large bid or Pool C bid. There are 21 Pool C bids this year. We currently project the Pool C cut line at 58.01 or where Trinity (CT) sit. They are ranked 44^th in NPI. Remember if a team with a lower NPI wins the AQ then in some cases it means a team could take an at-large bid and the cut line is elevated.

Looking at Pool A bids and the lowest NPI found is Bridgewater State (out of the MASCAC) at 46.15 or 284^th place. Others in the 200s are Gwynedd Mercy (Atlantic East) at 259^th and Maine Maritime (North Atlantic) at 204^th.

In Region X, there are only two teams above the cut line that would not get the AQ. They are CMS and Trinity. La Verne and Southwestern currently have the Pool A bids. ETBU is well positioned as is Whitworth if something unexpected were to happen in those tournaments.

I do want to point out that the Latvians and Ned added back in Ferrum. We originally thought they were ineligible for DIII Tournaments but their SID has indicated that they are.

Looking at the Top 10 and we have new teams in Washington & Lee (7), UW-Whitewater (8) and Colby (10). Babson had a nice jump last week rising from 29 to 16. La Verne rose from 46^th to 31^st. NYU went from 49^th to 35^th. William Patterson went from 54^th to 40^th. Otterbein goes from 53^rd to 41^st. All of those teams are current about our simulated cut line. Teams falling below the cut line this week were Hanover, UW-Eau Claire, Smith, Trine and North Park.

Looking for the big jumps (20 or more in either direction) and we don’t see anything until Lasell who went from 80^th to 45^th. They now sit just under the cut line. IWU is right behind them rising 25 this week. The team highest in the standings with a big fall is Smith. Trine fell 29 spots and is 3 spots behind Smith.

Looking for really big changes and we see Edgewood up 51 spots as they now sit 75. Mount St Joseph rose up 62 spots, Brevard fell 51 spots, Southern Virgnia was up 50 spots and Maime Maritime was up 51 spots. The biggest jump was Caltech who went from 360 to 275. The biggest fall was, indeed, Brevard who went from 121 to 172.

With an eye towards last year selection criteria and the criterion that was most important, Strength of Schedule (SOS), we see Hartwick sitting 61^st with an SOS 0.426. Millsaps sits 89^th with an SOS of 0.432. Plymouth State sits 50^th with an SOS of 0.467. Methodist sits 62^nd with an SOS of 0.475. Bethel (MN) sits 86^th with an SOS of 0.488. Anderson (IN) sits 83^rd with an SOS of 0.491. There are a few more like this. Above the cut line are Washington & Lee who sit 7^th with an SOS of 0.513 and Trinity (CT) who sit 43^rd with an SOS of 0.518. Everyone else is above 0.520.

More to get to today so I’ll end it there.