NPI Rankings (Week 4)

Time for our weekly NPI discussions. I’ve got the NPI dumps for both Ned and the Latvians and they agree. Nice to see. This doesn’t mean the NCAA will agree but I think we should be pretty darn close. I have updated the 2024 NPI Rankings with the Latvian’s data (but it could be either).

I think when you look at the list at the top, you are happy with the names presented. It feels good, right? The problem with NPI is in the margins. It will be the last 5 or so teams that make the at-large cut where things will get hairy. It’s really no different than if we had stayed with the old system. We never argue over the first 15 teams. So, I’ll take a look at that in a second.

First off, we have Juniata with a large lead and that shouldn’t surprise anyone. MIT had a nice run of late and are undefeated so the big news here is that NPI doesn’t hate New England this year. I do think it helps that some of the teams have travelled this year and that teams have gone there for matches. No one should be upset with UWO, Johns Hopkins, UWW or Millikin.

Marietta is the first team that should raise an eyebrow but when you look at what they are doing that hesitation goes away. I’ve included the Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Marietta’s is 0.577. Not the best that we would see for an at-large team but still good. We see Hope next, which is fine and then some interesting teams surrounding Emory (who has been racing up the rankings as they play better teams). Gettysburg, CWRU, Hanover, Washington & Lee and Colby are all fascinating but I do have 3 of them in my rankings and if someone wanted the other two, I’m not going to complain too much. Hanover’s SOS of 0.553 is a bit of a cringe and W&L’s 0.535 is probably a non-starter based on last year’s criteria. Still, these teams are winning and NPI loves winners.

The school that really raises a concern to me is Trine (SOS of 0.505). We’ll have to see where they fall at the end of the year but if you have them on the schedule you have to be happy as a win will give you a nice NPI bump.

Some interesting tidbits out of the NPI rankings:

• Harwick is the lowest ranked undefeated team at 54.94.

• Gust Adolphus is 0.500 but will still give you a QWB if you beat them.

• UC Santa Cruz is a double-digit loss team with an NPI over 50 (51.26).

• Linfield is the highest rated winless team.

• Gust Adolphus and Trinity have the 7^th and 8^th highest SOS but both would not make the NCAA Tournament per NPI.

• The five teams that have played opponents with the highest combined NPI are:

1. Juniata

2. Northwestern

3. Hope

4. Gust Adolphus

5. Johns Hopkins

• There are currently 60 teams that will give you a QWB.

It should be noted that we are now to the part of the season where bad wins will start falling off as most teams have 10 or more wins.

One of the things Ned does is indicate which teams would win the conference based on NPI, which would then give us our 21 at-large teams. Here’s who he had (note that teams leading their conference in NPI are assumed to get the automatic qualifier):

1. UW-Whitewater

2. Gettysburg

3. Emory

4. WashU

5. Franklin & Marshall

6. Chicago

7. Virginia Wesleyan

8. Calvin

9. Mary Hardin-Baylor

10. North Park

11. Trine

12. Chris Newport

13. Smith

14. Ithaca

15. Babson

16. UW-Platteville

17. NYU

18. CMS

19. Springfield

20. Whittier

21. UW-Eau Claire

Teams left out were Ohio Northern, Trinity, Otterbein, Gust Adolphus, Bowdoin, Carnegie Mellon, Transylvania and UW-Stevens Point.

 There is the rub.

There are some losses on those teams left out but a number of them are impressive losses. Trine on the other hand has a nice 5-set win over Rhodes. A Rhodes team that is 8-5 with a loss to LeTourneau and a 5-set win against Concordia (Texas). Anyone taking Trine over any of those teams left out? No? Well, you don’t count.

From the list, the top 43 schools ranked according to NPI will get into the tournament if it was held today. The other 21 schools are automatic qualifiers with lower NPI numbers. Ohio Northern misses out to UW-Eau Claire for the last at-large bid by 0.25 points. If they had decided NOT to play Juniata, they would be in. How messed up is that? Why is that a thing?

Regionally, New England gets 3 teams in. Region VIII gets 6 teams in. Region V, who has had the best string of success lately getting teams in that are questionable, get 1 in. Region X gets 3 in. There would also be 3 teams from the SCIAC, which would make the regional decision interesting. Do you use 5 flights to bring someone to La Verne or CMS? Remember one of those flying in would be a top 8 team. I think you do.

Speaking of the Protected Top 8, we have:

1. Juniata

2. MIT

3. UW-Oshkosh

4. Johns Hopkins

5. UW-Whitewater

6. Millikin

7. Marietta

8. Hope

UW-Whitewater should enjoy their flight to the second New England Regional.

I’ll see if I can think of more NPI fun this week to write about. Vacation was good but it’s also good to be back.