NPI Rankings (Week 11)

Our 2024 NPI Rankings page has been updated with matches through Sunday. We found error from Saturday’s matches but I assume they will correct it quickly. They have done this in the past. Our rankings page includes a link to the official NCAA data. Remember to update the date on the NCAA page to get the correct data.

Time to look at the Top 8! We actually had a couple of changes during the week, but the end result from last week is that Washington & Lee is in at the 7th spot and Colby is out. During the week, UW-Oshkosh was out and then back in. The margin between Colby and Oshkosh is 0.0724. Here are your Top 8:

1. Juniata

2. MIT

3. Johns Hopkins

4. Emory

5. Hope

6. Marietta

7. Washington & Lee

8. UW-Oshkosh

Colby now sits in the 9th spot followed by UW-Whitewater. It will be interesting to see what Ricky does with this change as it was impossible to remove Oshkosh, keep Colby and have Salisbury. This time we’ve added Washington & Lee but removed Colby. I think it can work but I am but a humble servant when it comes to regional hosting predictions.

With respect to the at-large window, we know the #1 seeds and that’s what’s being used to construct the window. This means we have two conferences where a team outside the window has the #1 seed while a team within the window does not. The first is the CCIW with IWU (1 seed) and Millikin (2 seed). The second is the Commonwealth with Messiah (1 seed) and Eastern (2 seed). If the 1 seeds win then the 2 seeds have an at-large (right now). However, if the 2 seeds win then it would, in effect, open up two additional at-large bids.

Our last team in this week is Eastern at 59.531. This is slightly up from last week’s cut-line of 59.427. You always have to remember that every team that needs an at-large will take another loss. Who you beat in the conference tournament and, more importantly, who you lose to will decide a number of teams’ fate.

I believe Ohio Northern is the only anticipated at-large team to drop out this week. They were replaced by Eastern, who was in the window but had the Pool A bid. With Messiah getting the 1 seed, they needed an at-large bid.

I wanted to look at a few teams and where they might finish if they take another loss and need an at-large. We’ll start outside the window and I will assume high seeds win for estimates.

Southwestern – My Pirates draw McMurry, Colorado College and then Trinity. Their anticipated NPI with a finals loss to Trinity would be 59.2557. Obviously, they get a lower number if they don’t make the finals.

Otterbein – They get a bye for the first round and would draw the 4 seed John Carroll 3 seed Mount Union before losing to Marietta. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.4666 59.5138. (Note – Thanks to the readers for pointing out my error!)

Eastern – They will draw York in the semifinal before getting Messiah. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.0361.

Gallaudet – This team currently has a 1 seed but if they lose, they’ll need an at-large. They will play Penn State-Harrisburg and then Lancaster Bible. Their anticipated NPI would be 58.9790.

Calvin – They get Trine Albion in the semifinals and Hope in the finals. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.7168 59.48. (Note: Albion has a much lower NPI than Trine. This could really hurt Calvin.)

Babson – They are actually the 5 seed so they draw Clark and then MIT and Springfield in the final. I don’t have to do the math with that. They beat MIT and they are in. What happens if they beat Clark but lose to MIT? They would be at 59.8312.

Transylvania – They have a bye in the first round before getting Earlham and then Mount St. Joseph in the final. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.2535.

UW-Stevens Point – They are the #2 seed and get a bye in the first round. They would then get UW-Whitewater and then UW-Oshkosh. If they beat UWW then they are in. Let’s look at what happens if they lose to UWW. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.5756.

Carnegie Mellon – We looked at CMU in our At-Large Window article but we’ll do it again here. They will draw Chicago, Emory and then CWRU. They are in, I think if they beat Chicago so no need to look further. If they lose to Chicago, they would play Rochester. Assuming they win, they would then get a placement match against (most likely NYU). I will look at beating Rochester but losing to NYU. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.2876.

Smith – They will play Wellesley and then Springfield before a final with MIT. Winning those first two matches will get them an at-large. Let’s look at beating Wellesley and losing to Springfield. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.7312.

Chicago – I skipped Stevens. Chicago is playing CMU in the first round so we’ll follow their pattern where they lose in the first round, beat Rochester and then lose to NYU. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.5730.

William Smith – I’m ended my fun here. They have a bye in the first round and then get Clarkson before getting Ithaca in the final. Their anticipated NPI would be 59.8956.

Alright, I did a number of different combinations and I only took two teams outside the at-large window. Teams like Ohio Northern and Whittier have good teams in their conference so making the finals could get them close to that cut-line if not over. What did we learn? Well, it depends on how many spots there are going to be. If we say that Messiah and IWU will win their conference then we can say that Southwestern, Gallaudet, Transy and Eastern have to win their tournament. (Eastern can’t if Messiah does, however.) Otterbein would take Eastern’s spot.

If, however, we say Millikin and Eastern win their conferences then it opens two more spots. If we assume Gallaudet wins their conference then it means all of the teams mentioned are in. What it really means is that Southwestern is the last team in at around 59.2557 and that’s a number I think teams below them can reach. The big thing we learned is that an early loss in these larger tournaments will be death to the teams near the cut-line. We also learned that a number of teams near the cut-line seem pretty safe.

I did get Ned’s projections and he has both Millikin and Eastern winning their automatic qualifiers, which opens up those two at-large bids. He has Otterbein and Ohio Northern getting those spots with the last teams out being Middlebury, IWU and Southwestern. His cut-line is 58.9905, which is lower than I anticipated. I might write more on this in a different article.

Our lowest NPI team with a chance at their Pool A bid is Marymount out of the Atlantic East. They sit at 49.5612 points. They are just ahead of Westfield State at 49.7463. These two conferences have been fighting it out for low NPI all season.

We again don’t see a lot of movement in the window or just outside of it. Gettysburg jumped 4 spots as did Cortland. Springfield did well rising 11 spots and looking like they have secured an at-large. Centre and Smith went up 4 much needed spots. Transy went up 5 spots. Dropping were CMS (5 spots), William Smith (10 spots), UW-Stevens Point (5 spots), Babson (8 spots), Eastern (5 spots) and Ohio Northern (8 spots).

Just to restate the obvious, everyone needing an at-large will take a loss. Teams just have to make sure it’s as late as possible and to the best team possible. Still, it appears that outside of a couple of teams near the cut-line, the field is pretty well set. The CCIW and Commonwealth tournament results will also play a huge role on the at-large field.