NPI Rankings (9/1/25)

Big thanks to the Latvians for the NCAA Power Index (NPI) data. “Ned” also does a great job with it and it’s good that we have two sources so we can compare the work. I have created a 2025 NPI Rankings page and it currently has the updated numbers through yesterday’s matches. The numbers are only from the Latvians and (as of last night) no comparison was done with Ned. We should be good but our biggest problem has been some duplicate or missing data in the NCAA results. For instance, I know that we are missing Austin College results. Once the NCAA cleans up their results, the numbers will be correct. For now, this is the best we can do. Oh, and we had this problem last year and things got cleared up.

As we saw last season, the early NPI Rankings will be all over the place especially the first week. Just enjoy the madness. This is why the NCAA didn’t want to release the official numbers but I think you all are stout enough to handle it. You all are made of good stock. Please no angry letters to the editor.

First thing you NPI experts will notice is that the numbers are low. Our at-large cut-line last year was just under 60 and right now we have no one above that number. In fact, I think only Otterbein would qualify for an at-large last year based on their NPI this season. As more matches are played, the number will grow. Once we start hitting the 10-match minimum, the numbers will start jumping up because we start throwing away bad wins. Teams will also have a chance to compensate for losses once we move past the 10-match margin.

I’m going to back up a bit because I always get new readers so let’s do some NPI 101.

• NPI is the system adopted last season to determine at-large teams to the NCAA Tournament.

• It’s a formula-based system. There is NO human interaction.

• The formula works on a match-by-match basis meaning that you get a match NPI that you then average with your other matches to get your total.

• The parameters (or dials) used in NPI are:

  • Win%/SOS = 20/80

  • Quality Win Bonus (QWB) = 55.5

  • QWB Multiplier = 0.600

  • Minimum Wins = 10

• The formula when winning is 0.2 + (0.8 * Opponent NPI) + QWB Value

• The formula when losing is 0.8 * Opponent NPI

  • QWB Value is added when beating a team with an NPI 55.5 (QWB) or higher.

  • The value is calculated by subtracting the QWB from the opponent’s NPI and multiplying it against the QWB Multiplier (0.6).

  • The NCAA multiplies the result by 100 to normalize it. (They don’t think you can handle decimals.)

If you want, do a search on NPI or formula and past articles will come up. There is also an NPI article you can access from the left side menu (or pull down) that covers a lot. The last thing to mention is that the formula will go through iterations until the winning and losing team’s numbers for their match stabilize. Ultimately, every match will impact every other match so every match has to be redone whenever there is a new result. We call that rippling. There are a lot of iterations and a lot of rippling in this selection system.

Congratulations for making it this far!

On to the rankings and we see that Otterbein, Ohio Wesleyan, WashU, North Park and Vassar are the Top 5 teams. You’ll notice a direct correlation between a team’s NPI and the Opponent NPI right now. There isn’t much rippling going on with the numbers. Oh, and New England College currently is in last place among the teams that have a DIII result.

Some interesting tidbits out of the NPI rankings:

• The highest team with a loss is Carnegie Mellon.

• There are three one-loss teams in the Top 50.

• The highest two loss team is Messiah.

• The lowest ranked team with a win is Dallas.

• There are a number of 0-1 teams ahead of teams that won (starts at ranking 225).

• No teams have a QWB because no one has beaten a team 55.5 or higher.

We’ll be able to do more fun with the numbers as more matches get played. Also remember that not everyone plays the first week. We have 363 teams in the rankings but there are over 400 playing DIII volleyball. Oh, teams that only played non-DIII matches will also not show up as those matches do not count in NPI.

(Update – I did get an update that fixes the Austin College issue, but everything was written and being lazy, I held off. It will get rolled in on the next update. It did not change the Top 5. It basically impacted only their tournament lowering everyone’s NPI because AC went 4-0.)