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I got a new NPI update so the rankings have been updated through yesterday’s matches. I also like to put out a different article on Thursdays so let me play around with the sort feature and see what I can dig up.

First thing I did was look at the number of bids that are hypothetically going to each region. Remember that we assign the automatic qualifier for a conference to the highest NPI team from that conference. We then take the next highest 21 teams in NPI and give them the at-large bid.

Starting with Region I and we see they have 7 bids currently assigned with 3 of those being an at-large bid. The highest team not getting a bid right now is Middlebury at 57.016. All of the at-large bids come out of the NESCAC.

Region II has 4 bids with just one being at at-large spot. Babson is the next highest team without a bid and they are at 56.784.

Region III has 5 bids with only one being an at-large spot. Vassar is the next highest team without a bid at 53.393. William Smith is the current at-large team at 60.544 so it seems like they will be their best and only hope.

Region IV has just 4 bids and all are automatic qualifiers. Their best hope for an at-large bid is NYU who sit at 56.423.

Region V has 8 bids with 3 at-large spots taken. Franklin & Marshall is taking the last of the three spots and they are actually on the cut-line with this update at 57.126. The next highest team is Gettysburg at 55.265.

Tying for the most bids is Region VI with 9. They would have the most at-large bids with 5. The next highest team is Bridgewater (Va) at 57.102.

Region VII has 8 bids with 3 being at-large spots. Albion (more on them later) is the next highest without a bid at 57.065.

Region VIII ties Region VI with 9 bids but only 3 are at-large spots. Next highest team is Carthage at 55.754 so it seems unlikely that another spot will go to this region this season.

Region IX has 5 bids with one being an at-large spot. This region has struggled getting at-large teams in lately so interesting development here. The team is Coe who are at 58.087. The next highest team is St Olaf at 56.862.

Finishing up with Region X and they have 5 bids with just one at-large spot, which goes to Hardin-Simmons. Next up is Hendrix at 56.696. The interesting thing here is that St Thomas is the highest NPI team in the SCAC. If you assume that Colorado College (56.230) is the best team then it will be tight on whether the SCAC can supply an at-large team. More on CC…they are currently using wins over 4 bad NPI teams in their NPI calculation. The SCAC will give them a chance to replace those wins so I expect a big boost for the Tigers in the future. (This is also the reason we see NPI increase over time. The replacement of bad wins in the calculation of many teams.)

Looking at Strength of Schedule (SOS), which was one of the primary selection criteria used prior to NPI, and we see Middlebury (0.642), William Paterson (0.638) and Chris Newport (0.632) as the highest teams that are currently not getting a bid. In the past, teams like this could commit a lot of sins and still find their way into the tournament.

My new favorite calculation is used opponent NPI (uoNPI), which tells us the average NPI of your opponents that are used in the NPI calculation. The three highest teams that are not getting a bid are St Olaf, Chicago and Chris Newport. William Paterson is fourth. Middlebury is 9^th, which I find interesting. Because they only have 9 wins, they are using bad wins from VTSU Castleton. (You must have 10 wins used for the NPI calculation.) Next up for Middlebury is Tufts, Bowdoin, Colby and Wesleyan. They certainly have a great opportunity to put themselves into an at-large spot but that’s a tough stretch of matches.

Something I don’t look at often is Wins Used. Teams with NPIs over 55 that are not currently receiving a bid that have yet to reach 10 wins are Middlebury, Babson, NYU, Chris Newport, William Paterson and St Benedict. These are teams that would seem to be within reach of an at-large spot that could be getting a win in the future that will boost their NPI higher. Something to watch.

The one concern I have with NPI is that low SOS teams can get a bid if they play a poor schedule but win almost all of their matches. Teams above the cut-line with an SOS under 0.525 are no one. Our lowest SOS is St Thomas and Lasell at 0.531. (William Smith and North Park are at 0.532.) Both St Thomas and Lasell are tabbed to receive automatic qualifiers. The team to watch is Albion who have an SOS of 0.460 and an NPI of 57.065. I truly believe that combination is a serious flaw in the usage of NPI as a pure selection tool. Albion is current two spots away from an at-large bid. Albion’s best win to date is Hanover who has an NPI of 53.

Moving away from the NPI information I have and a quick look at the Top 11 in Hitting Percentage. Remember, the national champion in DIII is always in the Top 11:

La Verne sits 27th. Oshkosh sits 30th. Eau Claire sits 13th and Whitewater sits 15th. If you are in Vegas, maybe some money on ETBU looks like the smart play.

That’s all I got. Small slate of matches today but a big conference weekend upcoming!

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