NCAA Tournament Selection – Part 2

* Note – This was written prior to the matches yesterday. There were a number of matches nationwide that could impact these selections. Just deal with it.

Almost a month ago I created the NCAA Tournament field of 64 and today we do the same exercise again and hopefully get a little closer to the final product. Last month I had a list of 111 teams and I figured at least that number would go down this time around but I’m looking at a list of 119 teams now. I didn’t really scrub the teams but still I’m surprised it went up. I came up with the 119 by looking at the conference standings of the 43 conferences that receive an automatic qualifier and jotting down the leaders. In 14 cases there was a tie at the top between two or more teams so they all made the list of 119. I then added teams that had really good records. Finally, I added in the top independents and the end result is 119 candidate teams.

As I mentioned last time, there are 43 automatic qualifiers (Pool A) for the NCAA Tournament. There has been some conference chaos this season which has resulted in teams moving from conferences that had an automatic qualifier to other conferences (some without an automatic bid). This, in turn, meant that the NCAA increased the number of independent teams that will get a bid (Pool B) from one to two. Finally, that means with this increase that the at-large bids (Pool C) decreased from 20 to 19.

The North Atlantic Conference, which consists currently of only 6 teams, has yet to start conference play so I went with the team with the best record – Maine Maritime. As I said above, there were 14 cases where there was a tie for the top spot so far this season. I only listed one of the teams in my Pool A list (at the bottom of this post) and I didn’t want to list the other teams. You’ll just have to know intuitively that when I listed Mount Aloysius that this could also be Penn State-Behrend.

So, I’ve got my list of Pool A bids and I decided to go with the same two teams I had a month ago for the Pool B bids – Thomas More and Marymount. Now only the hard part of picking the 19 Pool C (or at-large) bids remained.

As I did last time, I used the average number of at-large bids each region has been receiving over the last few years. Here are the numbers:

• Central – 2 Bids

• Great Lakes – 2

• Mid Atlantic – 2

• Midwest – 4

• New England – 3 or 4

• New York – 2 (was 0)

• South – 0 to 2

• West – 3 or 4

These bid totals range from 18 to 22 and you know we only have 19 this season. New England has really seen their bids increase over the last 4-years and New York over the last 2-years much to the dismay of anyone that likes to see the top teams make the tournament. The South really only would get a bid if Emory didn’t win the UAA but the region has gotten stronger recently. The West seems to be getting squeezed a bit but you also have my bias to contend with on this point.

Starting with the Central and my initial thought is that the bids are going to come out of the MIAC. There is a tie in this conference but the Pool A bid went to Gustavus Adolphus. That leaves Saint Benedict, Saint Thomas Augsburg and Bethel. Heck, they even have Saint Olaf but it’s just too many teams and we’ve got too few spots. Then I remember that I still have WUSTL to deal with since I gave the UAA to Chicago. Right now I’m hoping I can circle back to the Central and give them an extra bid. For now, I’m giving the two Central bids to WUSTL and Saint Benedict. St. Ben’s gets the nod because their SOS is higher than St. Thomas and Augsburg and they have a head-to-head over St. Thomas. Obviously, this bid is very fluid depending on what happens the rest of the way.

The Great Lakes also have two bids and the teams under consideration are Alma, Hope, DePauw, Ohio Northern, Baldwin Wallace…heck, the entire OAC, I guess. Alma, DePauw and most of the OAC get eliminated pretty easily, which leaves me with Hope, Ohio Northern and Baldwin Wallace for two spots. The poor Baldwin Wallace SOS gets them kicked so the bids go to Hope and Ohio Northern.

The Mid Atlantic is a bit of a problem. I have a number of teams under consideration for their two spots but each team has issues. If Johns Hopkins was healthy then they probably get one of the spots but they are on their third setter right now with the hard part of their schedule coming up. I finally decide on Eastern who has a pretty good record and a great SOS. (Side note for the West Region…DeSales leads the MAC Freedom which is where Eastern also plays. DeSales just came west and lost to both Whittier and La Verne. I’m not sure either gets in from the west but both DeSales and Eastern may. Bleah.) As for the second spot, I’m holding on to it for now. Whoa! Alert! Whoop Whoop…Dive Dive! I forgot Carnegie Mellon! Curse the UAA and the trouble it causes me. They get the second spot.

I’ve got four spots to play with in the Midwest but there are always a lot of good teams. As I start my list I notice some of the old standbys are having down years and I only come up with a list of 7 teams. I quickly eliminate two of them and really I only love Whitewater. I decide to add Carthage and Aurora but figure a third WIAC team won’t get selected (fool me four times NCAA shame on me). Make no mistake, Carthage and Aurora have issues but someone is getting the bids. I decide to hold back a bid from this region.

I know what you are thinking…I’ve saved an extra bid just to give it to New England! Not funny. New England typically gets three at-large bids and sometimes four. Again, not funny, but that’s what it is. I put together a list of 12 teams! You see, I’ve learned not to discount any New England team no matter how ridiculous their selection may seem to me. I quickly narrow down the list because I know the New England RAC Chair focuses on excellent records with excellent SOS numbers. That leaves me with Wesleyan, Tufts (name value and great SOS), MIT, Wellesley, Babson and Wheaton. I don’t see four teams coming out of the NEWMAC but nothing would surprise me with this region. Give me Wesleyan, MIT and Babson.

I can only come up with four teams for the New York region but this region is the most likely to get someone in that has no right to be selected. I’ve got RIT, Vassar, Genesco and Rochester. I can’t force the bile down my throat enough to pick two so I’m going only with RIT.

With Chicago winning the UAA, Emory is going to need an at-large bid. I’ve got a list of four others (Washington & Lee, Bridgewater, Hendrix and BSU) but none of them stand out for the rare 2 bids from the South event.

The last region is the West and I’ve only got 14 bids allocated, but as I’ve said most of the season I’m not sure we’ve got more than 3 bids in us this year. The results from Tuesday even made this more of a mess after Redlands beat Chapman and Cal Lu beat La Verne. Colorado College is an easy decision and they are in. Next up would be Whittier based on my West Region RAC predictions. They are a hard sell without a better record but their resume is very similar to Carthage and I put them in. Next up is Chapman and I think if they get a spot they would have the lowest SOS of the Pool C teams. I just can’t do it at this time. Honestly, Cal Lutheran has the best argument nationally with their JWU win. They basically take down the entire New England region with that win but they didn’t even make my Top 8 so they are never considered at this point. La Verne was the 8^th team in my prediction but I can’t put them in at this point, either. Going with just the two from the West for now.

Here is what it looks like after my first pass:

• Central – WUSTL and St. Benedict

• Great Lakes – Hope and Ohio Northern

• Mid Atlantic – Eastern and Carnegie Mellon

• Midwest – Whitewater, Carthage, Aurora and TBD

• New England – Wesleyan, MIT and Babson

• New York – RIT and TBD

• South – Emory

• West – Colorado College, Whittier and TBD

That’s only 16 teams listed and, ideally, I’ve got 19 spots. Here were the teams I had left after my first pass (the bubble teams as it were):

• Central – St. Thomas , Augsburg and Bethel

• Mid-Atlantic – Johns Hopkins

• Midwest – UW-Stevens Point

• New England – Wellesley

• West – Chapman

When I look at and compare St. Thomas and Augsburg they just stand apart from the rest of the teams. I think they both get in giving the Central 4 bids. Heck, Bethel might deserve it, too, but the chances of the Central getting 4 let alone 5 bids are already too high. Will the West really only get 6 bids? I believe in my heart that a 7^th team will be taken but it probably won’t be Chapman (as it stands today). Maybe Cal Lu gets hot or La Verne or UT-Dallas. With that said, if I had to choose right now who that last team in is based on what’s in front of me then I pull a Captain Kirk and use the Kobayashi Maneuver. I figure at least one regular season conference champion is going to lose in their tournament to a team that wasn’t going to get a bid so my final bid will go to that now disgraced regular season conference champion. In real fake life, the New England Region Chair probably gets Wellesley in. (Funny, but true.) Taking this further, with these results the west doesn’t host a regional and the six West Region teams are used to fill out all open brackets.

This entire exercise might be seen as purely entertainment but I believe this field of 64 is going to be pretty close to what is actually selected come November. I admit that I may have missed a team during my research, the Pool A bids are going to shift in some cases and I certainly don’t have the ranked wins information, yet. In the end, however, this is going to be close. With that said if I’m the Central RAC chair I’m praying that WUSTL wins the UAA (to get the automatic bid) and when selection day rolls around I’m not cowering to anyone else in the virtual room. Right now you’ve got the pocket aces and there is no reason to fold as everyone else at the table is going to be bluffing. The Midwest and West RAC chairs have a lot of work ahead of them to get the historical normal number of bids for their region. History tells us the selection committee will look at the raw numbers and not what constructs those numbers when picking teams. It will be in the interest of every chair from the smaller regions to dive down into the ranked wins/losses of every New England, New York and Mid Atlantic team mentioned in this post and see if this criterion accurately reflex what it’s supposed to mean. I obviously support the West Region and I want what’s best for our teams, but when it comes to selection I simply want the best teams in the nation regardless of location.

Here are the Pool A teams:

Berry

Bluffton

Bowdoin

Calvin

Chicago

Chris Newport

CMS

Concordia (Wis)

Cornell College

DeSales

Dubuque

Eastern Connecticut

Eau Claire

Franklin & Marshall

Greenville

Gust. Adolphus

Hunter

Ithaca

IWU

Juniata

JWU (RI)

Maine Maritime

Merchant Marine

Meredith

Morrisville St

Mount Aloysius

New Paltz

Notre Dame

NW-St. Paul

Otterbein

Pac Lutheran

Randolph-Macon

Southern Vt.

Springfield

Stevens

Stevenson

Stockton

Trinity

UMHB

Wentworth

Westminster

Wittenberg

Worcester St