NCAA Tournament Field of 64 (Again)

With the first regional rankings out that include all of the criteria I thought I would make my third attempt at filling out the NCAA Tournament field of 64. The process used this time was to go through each of the conferences with an automatic qualifier and select an early champion based on who was leading the conference. There were five conferences where a tie existed or the most likely outcome was a tie but there was no head-to-head advantage between the teams. The champions I’m using in these cases are Bowdoin, UW-Eau Claire, Greenville, IWU and Trinity. (In the case of Trinity, I selected them because I think Colorado College is a more intriguing at-large selection.) All of the Pool A bids are listed at the bottom of this post.

Next came my Pool B (Independents) bids and they went to Thomas More and Cabrini. I mean Marymount. [When I started this exercise I did give the bid to Cabrini because they just beat Marymount. At the end of the exercise, after Marymount essentially blocked Carnegie Mellon from selection, I realized that the Mid-Atlantic Region is telling me they are going to pick Marymount for the Pool B bid over Cabrini. Looking through it I get it but it’s close. They will probably play again and look out if Cabrini wins again. I’ll warn the Mid-Atlantic right now that you’d better move Marymount down your rankings because if they don’t get the Pool B bid they will be a blocker for the Pool C bid. Oh, and yes, I had to repeat my work over because of my error here.] That’s 45 selections in the book and that leaves us with just our 19 at-large (Pool C) bids to go.

Awhile back I looked at the at-large teams from last year and what their average criteria percentages were for record, SOS and ranked wins. (Yes, I know that percentage of ranked wins is not something the RACs are supposed to consider. I’m doing it here just as a quick way to select some teams.) The teams that exceeded all three of these averages and now receive my first 5 at-large bids are Saint Benedict, Hope, Christopher Newport, Chicago and UW-Whitewater. I was worried a bit about CNU but they do have a ranked win against Wittenberg so no complaints from me. I’m down to 14 at-large bids and things get tough as I prepare for a lot of comparisons.

As I start the criteria comparison process, I immediately see that most of these are going to come down to ranked wins, so I begin to list all of the ranked wins and losses. The first teams up for comparison are St. Thomas, Otterbein, Carnegie Mellon, Carthage, MIT, RIT, BSU and Colorado College. After looking at ranked wins/losses (and unranked losses), I’m not impressed with Otterbein, MIT and RIT. I’m on the fence with Carthage and BSU leaving me with St. Thomas, Carnegie Mellon and Colorado College. Remember, that’s just one criterion.

After going down the list and looking at all the criteria, St. Thomas, Carnegie Mellon and Colorado College are really a notch above the others. Colorado College has a really poor SOS so I double-check them against some of the other teams and their ranked wins compensate for their poor SOS. I decide to bring all three teams into the tournament. The Central normally gets 2 at-large bids and almost immediately they have reached their “allotment” with Saint Benedict and St. Thomas. Let’s see if they can claim more this year.

I add in Bethel, Muhlenberg and UT-Dallas. I’m on the fence with these three team’s ranked wins and I suddenly realize I don’t love anyone’s ranked wins. And only 11 more at-large bids to go!

Bethel looks better to me than Otterbein and Muhlenberg (lost to Bethel earlier). They also look better than Carthage but Carthage is interesting because although their ranked wins record was 2-8, they played a lot of really good teams in those 8 losses. On the flip side their two ranked wins are only over MW8 and S4. MIT’s ranked wins are mostly from the New England Region at not very high – NE4, NE6, NE7, NE10, NE11 and NY7. Their two losses are NE1 and NE5 with two unranked losses (although both moved into the rankings at the expense of two teams MIT already beat). After going through the list, and although I just added them for consideration, Bethel is in and breaks the 2 at-large selection glass ceiling for the Central.

I add in Augsburg from the Central and they already have one of the better wins as they took down UW-Eau Claire earlier in the season. In the previous comparison, the only team close to Bethel was UT-Dallas and I like them a bit more than Augsburg so they go in and I add Chapman to the mix.

Chapman is interesting because with their loss to Cal Lutheran this week they are going to move down next week but for the purposes of this exercise they have a very poor SOS and very poor ranked wins. I believe the West could be done with Chapman blocking Cal Lutheran and La Verne. This would also mean only 6 bids for the West Region, which hasn’t happened since they were realigned with the Texas schools.

New round of comparisons and I take Augsburg over Otterbein, but it’s close. Another close comparison with Carthage but they move through only to be stopped by MIT. MIT has a better record and SOS so the ranked wins don’t come into play. (I went back and compared MIT with Otterbein and it comes down to ranked wins there and whether you prefer garbage or sewage better. MIT still wins this comparison.) Oh, and that brings in Babson and more problems exist with ranked wins.

I take Augsburg down the list and guess who stops me…Babson! The New England Region just knows how to play this selection game better than anyone in the country. They don’t leave their region and they make sure they can rank more teams than anyone. If you can eliminate head-to-head and common opponent then you just need to do well in two of the last three criteria (and you have a leg up in ranked wins). Note to West Region – Cal Lutheran gave JWU their only loss and will hold a common opponent advantage with most of their region. Neither MIT or Babson gets through with Cal Lutheran up for consideration. With all that I just said and with my “Chapman is going to block the West Region” stance a few paragraphs up, Chapman trips up Babson. Slightly better record but a much worse SOS. The tipping point is a ranked win over Cal Lutheran is just better than what Babson has. With that said I would probably take BSU over Chapman and Carthage has a head-to-head over BSU. Time to slow my roll and see if I can figure out this mess as I’m pretty close to just adding 5 teams here.

I put pen to paper and I figure out who beats who out of this mess and two teams beat everyone but one team and that’s Augsburg and Babson. I put both teams into the tournament. Six spots left to go and I’ve got 4 Central Region teams in the tournament.

St. Olaf gets added but that looks like that’s it for the Central Region as Olaf has a very poor SOS and ranked win record, which is very hard to overcome. Next team to go up is Wellesley and they are coming off a victory over Babson this week (which doesn’t count in this exercise). My new handy-dandy chart tells me that Muhlenberg is the team to go down the list with but they get taken out by Wellesley (better record and SOS) but Wellesley loses out to Birmingham-Southern. My chart reminds me that Carthage beats out BSU but they don’t beat out anyone else. I take BSU and I put the Midwest Chair on mute. Washington & Lee joins the party but it doesn’t appear they have enough on their resume to be selected.

This round is easier because I can see from my chart that Muhlenberg, Wellesley and Chapman are all going to go in but the ordering is important. For the sake of time, I’m just putting all three in. That leaves two spots to be filled.

Lots of teams to add and the first is Eastern (good record, average SOS and poor ranked wins). Wesleyan gets added and frankly they could be the next team to go in as they have a really good record and SOS. Finally I add Cal Lutheran and they probably have two of the best wins in the nation as they have beaten JWU and CMS. I look through the teams and there is a group that is really close but when I get to Cal Lutheran I notice that with their SOS and quality ranked wins they can win a comparison against anyone left for consideration so they go in.

The last round is here and I add La Verne from the West Region but there isn’t a chance they get another selection (although it wouldn’t add a flight if CMS hosts the regional). The teams under consideration are St. Olaf (no chance), Otterbein, Eastern, Carthage (I just remembered to take the Midwest Chair off mute), Wesleyan, RIT (considered for 19 rounds), Washington & Lee and La Verne. The St. Olaf SOS just kills their chances. It’s close with Otterbein but I take them to the next comparison. Another close choice with Eastern but I lean towards SOS and push forward with Otterbein. I already know Otterbein takes down Carthage and for grins I determine that they also take down Concordia Wisconsin who has been blocked by Carthage. Honestly, I’m not sure why Carthage is ahead of Concordia Wisconsin as they have the head-to-head and better ranked wins but in this round it didn’t matter. Wesleyan and Otterbein are really close and it could go either way. I look down the regions and no one else is going to jump in so it’s down to these two teams. I’ll go with Otterbein only to align with historical averages better and I think they are a better team. But, if you were going strictly on criteria the edge is probably Wesleyan’s.

Here are your at-large teams (Pool C):

• Saint Benedict

• Hope

• Christopher Newport

• Chicago

• UW-Whitewater

• Colorado College

• Carnegie Mellon

• Thomas

• Bethel

• UT-Dallas

• MIT

• Augsburg

• Babson

• Birmingham-Southern

• Muhlenberg

• Wellesley

• Chapman

• Cal Lutheran

• Otterbein

That’s 4 teams from the Central, 2 from the Great Lakes, 3 from the Mid-Atlantic, 2 from the Midwest (!), 3 from New England, 0 from New York, 1 from the South and 4 from the West.

What are the lessons learned with this exercise? The Central has a number of strong teams so expect them to get more than their normal 2 teams. Otterbein really was a struggle to get in but I don’t think the teams behind them would get in regardless. With that said, Otterbein’s loss this week to Ohio Northern won’t make selection any easier for them. I mentioned at the top that I messed up the Pool B selections and did this exercise twice. Well, Muhlenberg wasn’t selected in my first go-around because Marymount was blocking the Mid-Atlantic. Carnegie Mellon was the 19^th team selected once I bypassed Marymount. Only two teams out of the Midwest doesn’t seem possible but Carthage has a real problem with their ranked wins and low win-loss percentage. They simply played too many good teams and didn’t get enough wins. Concordia Wisconsin has much better ranked wins than Carthage but is worse in both record and SOS. They should be ahead of Carthage because of their head-to-head win but I’m not sure it will help for NCAA selection. New England is going to be New England. There is going to be some changes in their ranking as the ranked wins fall out differently due to results from this past weekend. With that said, expect three if not four at-large bids from them unless the other regions really hammer their lack of quality wins. I don’t see a bid out of New York but they have overachieved the last two years. BSU is in simply because they beat Berry. The Midwest Chair really needs to make sure that BSU doesn’t go in before Carthage because of that head-to-head advantage. If BSU goes in first then Carthage really doesn’t have a shot (as you saw here). I thought Chapman would block the West Region but they got in. They lost to Cal Lu this week so they’ll move down and I think Cal Lu has a really good chance at selection due to that JWU win. It basically messes with the entire New England Region and I’m sure the New England Chair will be happy to let Cal Lu in the tournament to avoid multiple team conflicts that include her teams, Cal Lu and someone else.

Remember that the selection committee may not look at ranked wins the same way I did. If they lean towards percentage and not the quality of wins and losses then expect 4 teams in from New England and one from New York. It will also mean that Carthage will have no shot of getting in and will probably also eliminate Cal Lutheran.

When I look at the bubble teams that didn’t get in the only one that gives me pause is Carthage and to a lesser extent Concordia Wisconsin. I got to see Carthage play in person and they are worthy of this tournament. If they had not played 4 ranked opponents and instead beat up on 4 lesser teams they would be in and that seems like a problem with the selection criteria as opposed to the team.

Here is your Pool A teams:

Aurora

Averett

Berry

Bowdoin

Calvin

CMS

Cornell College

DeSales

Eastern Connecticut

Eastern Nazarene

Eau Claire

Emory

Endicott

Franklin & Marshall

Geneseo

Greenville

Gust. Adolphus

Hunter

Ithaca

IWU

Juniata

JWU (RI)

Maine Maritime

Mary Washington

Merchant Marine

Morrisville St

Notre Dame

NW-St. Paul

Ohio Northern

Penn St – Behrend

Randolph-Macon

Rose-Hulman

Springfield

Stevens

Stevenson

Stockton

Trinity

UMHB

Wartburg

Westminster

Whitworth

Wittenberg

Worcester St