National Review

This article keeps growing in scope so I’ve given it a new name. I hope no one else is using it. Our New England friend, “Ned”, has updated his Quality Win Index (QWI) now that the ranking services he uses have become a little better. Some were using 2020 data (or needed 2020 data) to work correctly. Since I have a fresh QWI update and I’ve been looking at some of the top teams nationally with regards to Points/Set and Hitting Percentage, I thought I would wrap it all up into one little package. Of course, I can’t forget about Hitting Percentage so I have that, as well.

What this all becomes is really another way to look at the schools nationally and it gives you three different viewpoints. You’ll see a number of the schools show up highly in each viewpoint and that’s probably a good indication of the quality of those teams. Where there are discrepancies are also interesting to note.

Let’s start with the little exercise I did that looks at the AVCA Top 25, the D3VbWest Top 25 and adds some additional teams in for good measure. I then look up their Points/Set and Hitting Percentage numbers and see how they rank in those two categories. A 1 means you are the best in that statistical category. Then I add up the two numbers and you get a total. Lowest number wins.

Here are the standings:

I think I removed Chicago and added UW-Stevens Point and Springfield. There may be other changes I have forgotten about but there are now 32 teams we are looking at. Why did I remove Chicago when the AVCA has them ranked? I just decided in a weak moment that I didn’t want to promote their silliness. (Their numbers were really bad compared to the other teams in this list and they don’t provide an XML format so I got annoyed.)

Looking at the top of the list, we have four teams that are high in my rankings and the AVCA rankings. We also notice that there are only two teams that have reached the elite level of 18+ Points/Sets on the season (CMS and Hope).

Coming in at number 5 and a team I’ve been championing is UC Santa Cruz. They are currently unranked by the AVCA. Following them are teams we are familiar with until we get to Otterbein (9^th). I have them ranked but the AVCA does not. Springfield follows and I’ve just added them to my rankings and I assume the AVCA will later today. Christopher Newport comes in at 15 and they are not currently ranked in either place. When we get to QWI, you’ll see why that is (in my case). Wartburg sitting at 22 is kind of surprising but I’ve been mentioning in my rankings that their statistics haven’t been all that good. Still, you have to respect the wins. QWI will put their spin on this, which is interesting when you see their ranking here. Mary Hardin-Baylor sits 23, which is why I’ve struggled to rank them higher. Wait until you see their QWI score. Emory at 26^th is why I have them a lot lower than the AVCA. Millikin currently brings up the rear and is one reason why they were dropped from my rankings this week (lots of losses is the other).

In summary, we can see how these teams are performing offensively with out regard to who they played. QWI attempts to show us how teams are performing accounting for who they played.

For those that don’t remember the QWI article from August (or previous years), it takes each team’s schedule into consideration and determines where each opponent is ranked in various ranking services. It then gives points for beating quality teams while giving no points for beating teams that are of lesser quality (trying to be politically correct here). Quality is defined by the ranking services.

What Ned did was break the schools out by Regions so I’ll paste that data in here and talk about each briefly. At the end, I’ll try to summarize it on a national level.

Here we have Region I, which was formally part of the New England Region. Wesleyan comes out on top with the 70^th best QWI score in the nation. I’ve harped about how do I know how good the New England schools are because they are not travelling this year, it appears that the ranking services are also having a difficult time with it.

Region II is also part of what was the New England Region. I love negative scores in these types of things. Giggle. Springfield, just entered into my rankings, is tops with the 67^th best QWI score in the nation.

Region III was part of the New York Region. Remember that the reorganization of 8 regions to 10 was basically splitting up New England and New York. I often make light of the quality of the New York volleyball programs but according to QWI, they are better than New England!

Region IV was the other part of what was the New York Region. We finally have some contenders here! NYU, who I have in my Top 10, comes in at 31 nationally. Statistically, they were 8^th but this says they are not beating a lot of quality teams. Could the statistics be elevated because they are playing poorer teams? I think that’s an argument you could make throughout this list and one I could have made for the New England teams.

We’ve got a number of the old Mid-Atlantic teams here in Region V. Johns Hopkins is the AVCA #1 team and my #2 team. They come in 7^th here so not too bad. Juniata, who is ranked highly by the AVCA and who I just put back into my rankings, sits outside the Top 25 here. Their weaker schedule was a concern of mine when I put them back into my rankings.

Region VI is the old South Region. I’ve been complaining about Emory all season and here they sit at 68^th! Good enough to lead a New England Region, I guess, but that is not what Emory is known for historically. Chris Newport’s number here is why I’ve struggled to rank them despite good statistics.

We are over half way through the Regions and there has been only 1 Top 25 QWI team listed so far. The talent lies in the Great Lakes, Central, Midwest and West, it seems. Here is Region VII, which was formally the Great Lakes Region. Seven teams in the Top 25 when it comes to quality wins. You may wonder why Muskingum, with a 15^th rating here, isn’t ranked by me. Well, although they have some quality wins, they have a number of losses, too. That’s where things get tricky.

Region VIII is the old Midwest Region and we have a lot of WIAC teams here. Eight teams in the Top 25. These teams are not shy about scheduling tough opponents and then go out and have success. Then when they play inside the region, they are rewarded for playing quality teams. It breeds upon itself when it comes to the QWI. I complain about Chicago’s statistics but they are playing one of the tougher schedules in the nation.

The old Central is brutal tough this year per QWI. Region IX is led by our nation’s leader in Wartburg. I’ve been worried about their statistics but maybe it’s because they are playing the toughest teams? As long as they are beating them, I can’t shouldn’t complain.

Region X is the West Region of year’s past. Speaks for itself. Again, UC Santa Cruz has played a decent schedule and performed. Pomona-Pitzer and La Verne are hampered by their records (still have to win). One thing to note here. Where is Mary Hardin-Baylor? Number 9 in the AVCA? Undefeated. Their schedule is, for lack of a better word, weak this year. It’s a get over Covid season so I get it. The QWI is not as forgiving, however.

So, in summary, the national rankings favor the teams not on the East Coast or in the South right now. Teams that schedule against those teams are going to do well in the QWI. You are going to do great if you beat those teams. I think this is a great tool to gauge how tough a team’s opponents are and can be combined with Points/Set and Hitting Percentage to get a real feel for the top/elite teams.

One thing I want to mention to my new readers. You’re getting a lot of information about stuff the NCAA doesn’t care about. I care about it. I think it’s part of the art of selecting the best teams in the nation when it comes to the at-large process. The NCAA only cares about their selection criteria and those criteria are biased towards regions where you have lots of teams to round out your schedule. So, come November, don’t be surprised when teams from New England are being selected over teams that are doing well in the Points/Set, Hitting Percentage and QWI statistics.

Lots of information so let’s go for the overload. Forget everything you’ve just read and focus only on these 11 teams. These are the leaders in Hitting Percentage as of Sunday and they are the ONLY teams that have any chance of winning the national championship this year.

You go Caltech!