Looking at the At-Large Window

I had wanted to do a couple of articles this week before life got in the way. So, I present for your consideration, the very rare in-season Friday article. (I’m not sure this has ever occurred during the regular season.)

I talk a lot about the at-large window and the cut-line but these are determined on an assumption that the highest NCAA Power Index (NPI) team will win their conference. The Latvians have now started to incorporate the #1 seed into the mix instead of high NPI team. Right now, the only conference where this impacts the window is the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW) where Illinois Wesleyan (IWU) is the #1 seed and Millikin is the high NPI team. Because IWU is now outside of the at-large window and Millikin is in it, this causes some disagreement with the window and cut-line.

When trying to determine who will get the at-large bids, it’s important to note these cases because, in a sense, an extra at-large bid is out there if Millikin wins their conference tournament. As of yesterday, that bid would go to Otterbein assuming Gallaudet (first team out) wins their conference.

The flip side of this is more insidious. It’s when a team in the at-large window loses their tournament to a team outside of the window. This, in effect, reduces the at-large window. If this happens just once, then Ohio Northern (last team in) is out of the NCAA Tournament. There is a third case where an at-large window team loses their conference but to another at-large team. There is no impact on the window in this case.

There are currently 19 teams within the window that we assume, for the purposes of creating the at-large window, will win their conferences. I thought it might be good to look at how plausible each case looks a week before conference tournaments start.

Before we get to the 19, let’s take a look at the CCIW. IWU went 8-0 in conference while Millikin went 6-2. Millikin took losses to IWU (in 4-sets) and North Central. Both losses were on the road. Their tournament is hosted by the highest seed for each match. Millikin will probably draw Carthage at home. They beat Carthage in 5-sets on the road in their previous meeting. IWU will get either North Central or North Park. They swept North Park at home and beat North Central on the road in 5-sets. You can see how tight this conference tournament is going to be. The CCIW definitely gives us the possibility of an upset by a team within the window and also a team outside the window. Still, I would probably give the edge to IWU playing at home. So, I’m going IWU with 65% confidence. This means I will not expand the at-large window to include Otterbein for the purposes of this exercise.

Looking at the chosen 19, first team up is Juniata who play in the Landmark. They went 9-0 never losing a set. I watched a bit of their match against Scranton (#2 in conference) and it wasn’t close. Juniata with 100% confidence.

MIT plays out of the NEWMAC (I decided I’m not going to write out the full names of the conferences anymore…sorry) and went undefeated. What is interesting is that they have one match left and that’s with second place Smith. A Smith win gives them the conference regular season title. The Smith loss is to Springfield, which is a team MIT swept. I’m giving this conference Automatic Qualifier (AQ) to MIT with 98% confidence.

(These first two are pretty easy but the net result is that I’m not seeing, yet, any change to the at-large window.)

Johns Hopkins plays out of the very tough Centennial Conference that also contains Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg and Swarthmore. JHU is just too good so 98% confidence here. A 100% chance a team in the window wins this conference.

Emory is out of the UAA, which is changing their name to the Oprah Conference, “You get a bid and you get a bid!” The only teams not in the window in this conference are Brandeis and Rochester. I’m 100% sure a team in the window will win this conference. I was curious about how their tournament format might cause a team like Chicago, Carnegie Mellon (CMU) or NYU to get bounced out of the window. Chicago and CMU play each other in the first round while NYU gets WashU. NYU, if they lose, would draw (most likely) Brandeis in their consolation match. They beat Brandeis at home in 4-sets in conference. I definitely give Brandeis a punchers chance in a rematch. I think NYU has too much of a cushion and would still finish above the 60 NPI mark. For CMU, a loss to Chicago but a win over Rochester puts them around 59.64 and dancing on the anticipated cut-line. Chicago is a little better off as they are still above 60 with a loss to CMU but a win over Rochester. Both would have to beat Rochester who would give them around a 62 match NPI for the win! Anyway, everyone within the window in the UAA look safe except, maybe, CMU.

As luck would have it, Ricky was texting me about this very topic and reminded me that the UAA also plays a placement round! After what is described above, they play a 3^rd place match, a 5^th place match and a 7^th place match. If a Chicago or CMU lose and then beat Rochester then they might have to play a team like NYU for 5^th place! Another loss for CMU would definitely drop them from the window. Chicago would be straddling the cut-line. With NPI in place, the UAA may want to look at the need for the placement matches.

Hope will win the MIAA even with Calvin there and inside the window. 100%. Speaking of Calvin who are right above the cut-line, a win over Trine and a loss to Hope probably keep them right around where they are. Just don’t lose to Trine (a team they swept away).

The OAC has a chance for some fireworks. Marietta is the number 1 seed and a lock for the tournament and probably a Top 8 seed, but this is a conference that sees at-large window team Ohio Northern as the 5 seed playing at John Carroll. ONU just lost at John Carroll in 4-sets. They have a chance this weekend to help their NPI but a first-round loss in the tournament probably bounces ONU from the window. Otterbein is the 2 seed and gets a bye. A win in that semi-final probably launches them into window even with a loss to Marietta. 98% chance this conference is won by a team in the window but a swap of Otterbein for Ohio Northern is possible as an at-large.

(I know I’m doing a little more here than I first intended. NPI is a drug and it’s a habit I cannot quit.)

Colby plays in the NESCAC and went undefeated against teams that are not currently in the window. With that said, this conference does offer a chance that Colby gets beaten although it will have to happen on their home floor as they get the hosting gig if they beat the 8 seed in the first round. The teams that could pull off the upset are Middlebury, Tufts or Wesleyan. I give Colby a 75% chance against that field. (Only Tufts took sets off of Colby and that was at Tufts.)

There are currently 5 teams from the WIAC in the window so 100% chance one of them win their conference tournament. I was going to look at some of the teams that are close to the cut-line but things are crazy here. I think UW-Platteville is safe but they have a match with UW-Stevens Point left. Whether they win or lose, I think they will have to play a 4/5 match against UW-Eau Claire. Losing both and I think they are still above 60 NPI. For UWSP, they have UW-Platteville and then maybe a match against Whitewater. Losing both takes them to the mid-59s and dancing with the cut-line. I think UW-Eau Claire is pretty safe as long as they beat UW-La Crosse this weekend.

The ODAC is led by Washington & Lee and in second is Virginia Wesleyan who are both in the window and between them had 1 conference loss. I’ll give this a 98% chance one of these two teams win the AQ. Virginia Wesleyan looks safe for an at-large bid.

ETBU went undefeated in the ASC and will host the tournament. 99% chance they win their tournament although both Hardin-Simmons and Mary Hardin-Baylor took a set off of them when playing at ETBU.

Salisbury is in the C2C Conference and have to deal with in-window Christopher Newport and out-of-window UC Santa Cruz. I think it’s about 95% chance either Salisbury or CNU win this one. CNU looks safe as an at-large.

The Liberty League has undefeated Ithaca followed by in-window one-loss William Smith. 99% chance one of these two teams wins their tournament. Both teams look safe.

The SCIAC is currently led by CMS who took a single loss to in-window La Verne who is currently second. Your problems in this conference are out-of-window Whittier and Pomona-Pitzer. Whittier took a match from La Verne and the rematch is this weekend. The high seed hosts in this tournament and I’m pretty confident the title will go to either CMS or La Verne. Let’s say around 95% here. La Verne is at 60.88 so they have a bit of a cushion. A win against Caltech and then two losses to Whittier would have them right around the cut-line.

Trinity is the only team in the at-large window out of the SCAC. Southwestern is just under the cut-line and the only other team with a chance at an at-large. I believe the only way Southwestern gets an at-large is if they play Trinity prior to the finals and win. Their conference matchups are not yet set so this may not even be possible. Trinity of late has a 90% chance at taking the title. Colorado College, TLU and Southwestern all have a chance but I think Trinity is too strong right now.

Whitworth is undefeated in the NWC but there was that 5-set win over George Fox that is interesting. They still have matches this week against the 2 and 3 seeds. I put them at 85% to win their tournament but they will be hosting. I just think they will get a tough semi-final match and then a tough finals match.

Cortland is undefeated in the SUNYAC and beat the second seed team in 3-sets away. They are 98% to take this tournament.

Stevens is the number 1 seed in the Freedom but took a loss to Lebanon Valley at home and that’s who they draw in the semi-final. Normally, I’d say this was near 100% for Stevens but let’s go 90% because of that earlier loss. I do not think history repeats here.

Centre will be the number 1 seed in the SAA but just took a home loss to the second seed in Berry. Berry has had a down year but do not count them out here. There is a lot on the line here as Centre sits at 60.06 and have a match against IWU away this weekend. A win pads their cushion and probably secures an at-large but a loss probably make a tournament win mandatory. I think Centre is probably at 85% or so but with an IWU loss it’s possible that if an out-of-window teams upsets them that they will get bounced out of the window. The net result would be no change to the at-large window if that happens.

Our last team and conference to look at are Transylvania and the Heartland. Transy went undefeated in conference and beat the 2 seed in a sweep at home. They will host the tournament so I think they are probably 95% and winning.

What does all of this mean? If you multiple up all of my odds, you come up with a 33% chance that a team in the window loses their tournament to an out-of-window team. That means whomever finds themselves as the last team in on selection day will be sweating it out. If you look at the odds individually, it seems pretty safe that no changes to the window will happen. Yes, there could be some teams dropping out and one or two coming in but that has nothing to do with who wins the conference tournaments. Historically, we just don’t see a lot of at-large bids having to go to a team that lost their tournament to an “undeserving” team. Of course, remember that I gave IWU a 65% chance at winning their tournament even though Millikin has a higher NPI. There is a 35% chance, therefore, that the at-large window could increase by one spot if Millikin no longer needs their at-large and gets the AQ.

We still have matches this weekend and with NPI we know that it ripples. We just have no way to fully quantify future losses and how they will impact everyone else. For the most part, the at-large window that we have defined seems pretty secure. It’s that cut-line and who is just above and just below that provides the excitement.