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Friday Musings
I am about to go silent for a few days as I head to the Happiest Place on Earth. Or was that the Most Expensive Place on Earth? Holy cow, Disney…I have to believe there is some cost cutting that could be done to reduce park tickets and all of your add-ons. The (hot) wife and I are actually heading to the AAU Tournament in Orlando so I’ll get one day (Tuesday) to watch some volleyball and then a few days at the parks. Our niece is playing in the tournament so I’m looking forward to that. Any coaches that want to say hello, I’ll be following the Sports Academy 16 Premier team. I’ll probably show up in all of my Southwestern gear just to freak out the parents who will think I’m a coach. Just ask around for Don Flora and that should get to me. (I’m not good looking enough to pass for assistant Jeremy Ford.)
I’ve done a lot of schedule work this offseason. I think I’ve written more articles this summer than any other summer and that might include the wacky 2021 spring season.
Speaking of schedules, it doesn’t appear that they Oregon Trail Classic made this year. That’s the big tournament for the NWC Oregon teams. Both Pacific Lutheran/Puget Sound and Whitworth have tournaments going but I’m not seeing the Oregon Trail Classic. I’ll harp on it again, but the NWC needs to really coordinate these tournaments and see if we can get as many NWC teams playing as we can. We need to get the conference, as a whole, lifted up.
Speaking of the NWC, I did a schedule analysis blurb on Whitworth and I may have to walk back some of the thoughts I had that NPI had them too high last season because their schedule wasn’t strong. I mean I was correct about that but my premise was that if they had lost the conference final match that they would still get an at-large when their Strength of Schedule was too low. Looking at their schedule this season, they have the same issue but the problem is that the NWC is just so weak. Whitworth will play 10 low-NPI teams but all are conference matches. To fight this issue, Whitworth is hosting their own tournament and then flying out to play some stiff competition. They will get teams like TLU, Pomona-Pitzer, La Verne, Whittier, Northwestern, ETBU and Trinity. That is going to be a tough 3-weeks of matches. Looking at their Opponent NPI, it’s a very low 0.507. If you throw out their low-NPI matches, their number climbs to a really good 0.560. I’m starting to think that the Opponent NPI number should be based off the matches used in the calculation. It shouldn’t include matches that don’t count in the formula. Now, if a team starts using low-NPI results then they get counted. If “Ned” and the Latvians are reading this, I think we should have a separate column for this in 2025. Anyway, I’m just really impressed with what Whitworth is doing this season so I’ll try to be nicer to them.
I published the Johns Hopkins Schedule Analysis but didn’t get an answer back to my email from their new coach, Bayleigh Braswell, prior to publishing. Well, she was nice enough to respond after the fact. In a nutshell, she said their schedule was mainly done before she took over. She had to focus on the first two weekends and any struggles were probably mainly due to being hired in February (not NPI related). I did have some questions about scheduling philosophy and being a new coach and I thought the answers were worth sharing here:
Question: This appears to be another very difficult JHU schedule. Why is it important to challenge your team with these types of opponents?
Answer: “Tough opponents are good at exposing our weaknesses. Being aware of our weaknesses is crucial for improvement. But even more importantly, it’s fun. I only have a non-traditional spring season with this team under my belt, but the biggest thing I’ve learned about us is that we love to be challenged.”
Question: As a new DIII coach, how prepared were you on the new selection method (NPI)?
Answer: “Coming from RPI, I had a good deal to learn. I’m still adjusting. Thankfully, at Hopkins I am surrounded by coaches that are extremely successful in their sports who are eager to help me navigate it.”
Question: What’s it like being a new coach taking over a very successful program?
Answer: “They call it an inheritance for a reason. I am incredibly grateful to Matt Troy, the alum, and everyone who made this program what it is today. It’s not lost on me that this is a special opportunity. We are maintaining the standards and the traditions while I put my spin on things. I want to work hard for this program because I already believe in it so deeply.”
Awesome input from Coach Braswell and I wanted to make sure it had a platform. I already like you more than Matt!
Back to schedules and it appears the SAA went with a mixture of home and away plus pod scheduling. The pods were needed because both Southwestern and Trinity will join this season. The Berry schedule labeled them Tri (when three matches for a team were scheduled over a weekend) and Mega Pod, which I really like. The Mega Pod is at Berry on September 27 and 28th and every team in the conference will be there. Mark this down as another weekend destination for me. I doubt it will play out but so much fun. I’m also a closet Berry fan so it would be like coming home. Just keep rowing.
Alright, travel schedule. I’d like to make the PLU/Puget Sound Tournament over Labor Day weekend. Love the area, it’s where the 2016 Southwestern team started their Final 4 run, Southwestern will be there and I’ve never met Puget Sound Head Coach Mark Massey in person, yet. Southwestern hosts the following weekend and it will be another chance to meet Mark. If I don’t meet Mark this season, then you know I secretly hate him. The problem here is that the Oshkosh Tournament that has WashU, CMS, Emory and Stevens Point is also this weekend. Plus, Ricky said he’d jump out of a cake for my 60th birthday. The following weekend Oshkosh hosts Hope, La Verne and Chicago. Hard to pass that one up. Trinity has Northwestern, Whitworth and ETBU in town that weekend, too. They will host the first round of the new SAA the following weekend but that weekend is devoted to the (hot) wife. There are a ton of fun tournaments on the east coast, too. How many of these will I make? Maybe one, if I’m lucky, but I can dream. Oh…and the Mega Pod!
I’m also circling October 12th for a day trip down to Southwestern. They will play Centre and their new assistant Emma White. Emma was one of my favorite Southwestern granddaughters. I wonder if they will have to towel down the bench area during the match. IYKYK.
For you Dallas Cowboys fans out there, my conditioning program has paid off as I’m pleased to announce my signing with the club. It would be nice if they could remember to add the second ‘e’ to my name.
Finishing up, I have a special shoutout to loyal reader (no one tell me differently), Rylan Vlasich, who verbally committed to UC Santa Cruz. She’ll be there in 2026. Rylan is the daughter of Kurt and Cindi Vlasich. Kurt is the head coach at CMS. Rylan gets some of her VB skills from dad but everything else from Cindi. She can be very thankful for that. I guess we’ll see CMS and UC Santa Cruz battle a bunch over those 4-years. In Rylan’s IG post, she thanked “…my parents, family, friends, and coaches at Forza…”. No specific mention of D3VbWest? Yes, I’m disappointed, but I’ll be the bigger person here. On the flip side, I do notice Rylan at a lot of away tournaments while school is in session if there is a SoCal truant officer reading this.
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