Fall 2021 & Covid

I’ve tried to stay away from Covid articles for the most part since it somehow became a political issue very early on. With that said, I do want to touch on Covid and the upcoming 2021 season. We are seeing schools requiring students to be fully vaccinated in order to attend on-campus classes for the fall. A lot of these are in the Northeast but they do stretch from coast to coast. The last list I saw included West Region schools like Caltech, Chapman, CMS, Occidental, Pomona-Pitzer, UC Santa Cruz, Colorado College, Lewis & Clark, Pacific Lutheran, Puget Sound, Willamette and Whitman. A quick search, however, shows that Trinity University just announced that students studying or living on campus will need to be vaccinated. Southwestern also looks to be requiring a vaccination. Hardin-Simmons, on the other hand, does not require the vaccination for the fall. (Remember that, regardless, Texas requires exemptions for “Reasons of Conscience”.) I will say that time is running out on the decision. Whitworth and Cal Lutheran have said no decision has been made yet but you have to assume a 2-month period to become fully vaccinated. That already puts us in mid-July if the incoming student body received their first shot today.

Another thing that is happening in 2021 is realignment as we go from 8 volleyball regions to 10. You can read about it hereand if you are unfamiliar with what I’m talking about I suggest you do it. The last point I’ll make before I get to the crux of what I wanted to write about is that we have to remember that everyone played either a condensed schedule or didn’t play at all in 2020-21. The schools that didn’t play at all were typically in the Northeast and California (well, and the WIAC…Hey Ricky!).

So, with that lead in, how will Covid play a role in the 2021 fall season or will it be a non-issue? My opinion is that it will still be a significant issue (factor) in the upcoming season although I’m not sure enough thought has been given on what to do with schools that don’t require vaccinations. I suspect the NCAA will be able to back off a lot of the Covid safety protocols put in place, which will give the conferences more freedom to operate. We have a blueprint that worked in place and now it just needs to be tailored down as more vaccinations are given. Even conferences that didn’t play should be able to take from others and create their own policies. But how will a school or conference that may be 100% vaccinated operate versus one with an unknown number? I think that’s a fascinating question and one that got me thinking about this article.

Let’s start with the Northeast. You are a school that didn’t play in 2020 and now find yourself in a smaller region but with two new regions really close to you (due to realignment). Are you going to travel out of your part of the country when you can play your standard schedule and get more credit (via NCAA Tournament selection criteria) for out-of-region wins because more teams are now available to you? Leaving the region was a rare and special thing when it happened before in the Northeast but coming off the heels of Covid, I don’t like the odds. I had my Latvian hackers do a quick search of the top teams in the old New England Region and they did find two preliminary schedules but neither had trips that would require flying. The longest trip found was to Union, New York. There is still a chance a team can come in and provide some clarity as to the strength of the region in a Northeast hosted tournament but it will be interesting to see how many quality schools are planning on traveling in 2021.

Moving over to California. You’ve had some Covid issues, I don’t need to be the one to tell you that. Schools have primarily been online. I believe through my discussions with coaches that volleyball schedules will be as close to normal as possible, but have you thought it out? I’ll assume you are all will be vaccinated. Are you good with Hardin-Simmons coming in for a tournament? Or coming out to Texas where they are in the building? I’m not trying to put the scarlet letter on HSU but there are going to be some programs that don’t require vaccination. Heck, all of the Texas schools must allow for an opt-out so some risk exists. What if Cal Lutheran doesn’t require it? How is the Occidental student-body going to react when they all had to get the vaccine and Cal Lu comes in for a home match? In theory the vaccinated programs should be fine but there is still a lot we don’t know. Maybe it means the conferences don’t let up on the Covid protocols in place? The hoops this requires in the area of testing, however, is really significant. It probably means we’ll see more Covid cancellations and periods where teams will not be allowed to play as we saw in this spring season.

Bouncing to Texas and, if you hadn’t heard, we are in the wild west. We’ll have schools fully vaccinated and others that don’t require it. We’ll have opt-outs on teams but in the end the two conferences in this state have gone through a full (sort of) conference schedule. Will the conferences act as if no one is vaccinated or will they back off on the protocols? Typically, you’d have to think the NCAA and the conferences will fall on the side of safety, but if there are not allowances made for vaccinated student-athletes in their protocols then I think huge mistakes are being made.

Nationally, I’m hearing that there is some scrambling going on with quality schools trying to find tournaments and tournaments not happening because of lack of schools. Normally, for the power programs, schedules would be close to being finalized. I can only assume this means that less teams will be traveling in 2021. I would think the major reason is because of Covid concerns. The other, to be fair, is going to be financial. Remember that we had the 2020 recruits where some took a gap year and now, we have the 2021 recruits. We have seniors that are still seniors. The end result will be large rosters this year at schools that have just taken a huge hit financially. Athletic programs all have increased costs of operation due to the Covid protocols in place. It’s not a good combination that leads to increase travel.

This all leads, believe it or not, into schedules and I have my Latvian hackers trying to find them. This year, when I analyze them, it will be less about statistics loss (simply because I’m not sure who’s leaving) and more about traveling and traditionally strong opponents. At this point I’ve seen the two programs from the Northeast schedules (disappointed) and one from a top program in the West (impressed). So, from that standpoint, looks like 2021 could be business as usual.