Elite 8 Musing

(Update: Latvian hackers say seeding will be today.)

Whew. Anyone with PTSD this morning?

One of the nicer things with a Region X Regional is that the games come at you one at a time. You don’t have to juggle 2 or even 3 Region X teams at the same time. It sure made it difficult and then when trying to insert other interesting matches into the mix, you tend to not get the total picture of any match. On the flip side, you have the chance to get multiple teams to the Elite 8.

I’m hearing that the reseeding of the Elite 8 will not happen until tomorrow (Monday). The Selection Committee will run the criteria between the 8-teams and come up with their ordering. The teams will then be told and then the NCAA will delay the release for some reason as people like me try to figure out what is going on. It’s like another Thanksgiving Tradition!

In my post yesterday, I had this for a potential ranking:

1. Juniata

2. UW-Oshkosh

3. Hope

4. Northwestern

5. NYU

6. Johns Hopkins

7. CMS

8. Trinity

I had a coach text me yesterday with his thoughts and he was very criteria based with no human interaction into the ordering. His order was:

1. NYU

2. UW-Oshkosh

3. Juniata

4. Hope

5. Johns Hopkins

6. Northwestern

7. CMS

8. Trinity

He had some ties in there but I broke them for him. Why is it so different than mine? He used the criteria in a very clinical fashion and I didn’t, which is strange for me. I just don’t think the Elite 8 should be handled in that manner because the criteria is unfair, we only have 8 teams and we’ve had an entire season to see these teams. I believe his ordering will be closer than mine because I think the committee will be clinical in their application.

Here are the head-to-head results of the Elite 8 teams:

Juniata: Win Johns Hopkins 3-1; Win CMS 3-0. UWO: Win Hope 3-1; Win Northwestern 3-2; Win Trinity 3-0. Hope: Lost UWO 1-3. Northwestern: Lost UWO 2-3; Win NYU 3-0. NYU: Lost Northwestern 0-3. Johns Hopkins: Lost Juniata 1-3; Win CMS 3-1. CMS: Lost Juniata 0-3; Lost Johns Hopkins 1-3; Won Trinity 3-1. Trinity: Lost UWO 0-3; Lost CMS 1-3.

That’s 8 matches between these teams! Criteria says NYU may be the best team but they were swept at home to Northwestern a month ago. How do you marry that? It’s simple, the criteria is far from perfect so the human touch is needed. When you look at NYU, they had over 20 Ranked matches, which is a huge number. Coupled with their high SOS they are basically a lock for a high seed. It’s just that when they played one of these 8 teams that will be ranked lower, they lost in 3-sets: 21, 12 and 20. They also played a number of weaker regionally ranked teams (although not taking anything away from the UAA champion).

I will say this, I really don’t care as much about the reseeding as I have in the past. I think Juniata is the best team but my pick is UW-Oshkosh. Most of these other teams have played a much tougher schedule so I’m thinking Juniata could get tripped up here. Still, if there is one team I do not want to play, it’s Juniata.

Why don’t I care about the reseeding? Because we don’t have a team that doesn’t belong that the criteria will favor. You can read that as we don’t have a New England team in the Elite 8. To me, it’s Juniata then Oshkosh and everyone else together.

Speaking of New England and I wrote this yesterday, but this is the first time without a New England team in the Elite 8 since 1994. The tournament only had 32 teams back then and the “New England” regional had all New England teams in it and Stoney Brook (out of New York). Stoney Brook won. Since that time, we’ve always had a New England team. Keep in mind that a New England team has only ever been to the finals once. Most of the time, New England teams get a free pass and then lose in the quarterfinal regardless of their seed. With the move to 10 regions, we’ve seen the New England region start to get two regionals with free passes. Every other year, that MIT Regional would have had Middlebury as the 2^nd seed instead of CMS. What the selection committee did this year was very simple and long overdue.

I know I get upset with the New England region a lot but they are just playing the hand that is dealt to them and they play it well. My hope is that the rules have changed (no more free passes) and that will cause the schools to schedule more out-of-region matches. This year, Tufts went to the East/West Classic and went 1-2. Let’s say they won all three (Colorado College, Emory and Trinity) and then followed it up only losing once or twice in New England. No issue with a potential free pass just like I can’t have too much of an issue with the Juniata free pass this year. My point? They must be made to earn it like everyone else.

One of the great things about the NCAA Tournament is that you get to see players from other regions and just appreciate the greatness that is all around us. That becomes even more true in the Elite 8. Here are the Top 5 in some statistical categories from the Regionals that will be in the Elite 8:

Kills/Set

• Simrin Carlsen (Johns Hopkins) 5.10

• Haley Holz (NYU) 4.80

• Abby Glanzer (Northwestern) 4.54

• Jenna Holmes (CMS) 4.33

• Sami Perlberg (UW-Oshkosh) 4.20

Assists/Set

• Helena Swaak (Johns Hopkins) 12.50

• Olivia Foley (Juniata) 11.33

• Lauren Lee (Hope) 11.00

• Georgia McGovern (CMS) 10.78

• Marisa Amarino (Trinity) 6.31

Digs/Set

• Marylyn Schryer (Northwestern) 6.69

• Lindsey Hirano (NYU) 6.40

• Abby Fregien (UW-Oshkosh) 5.30

• Kiona Sky Rousset-Hernandez (Juniata) 5.17

• Nadia Kern (Trinity) 4.85

Aces/Set

• Evelyn Batista (Johns Hopkins) 0.80

• Simrin Carlsen (Johns Hopkins) 0.80

• Kennedy Christy (Juniata) 0.80

• Izzy Coon (UW-Oshkosh) 0.80

• Grace Nelson (NYU) 0.80

Points/Set

• Simrin Carlsen (Johns Hopkins) 6.10

• Haly Holz (NYU) 5.35

• Abby Glanzer (Northwestern) 5.35

• Jenna Holmes (CMS) 5.17

• Riley Kindt (UW-Oshkosh) 5.05

Blocks/Set

• Riley Kindt (UW-Oshkosh) 2.00

• Mackenzie Coley (Juniata) 1.40

• Kamryn Burbridge (Hope) 1.38

• Leela Anvekar (NYU) 1.30

• 3 tied at 1.28

So strange not to immediately have to worry about going to the Elite 8 this week.

So strange that the Elite 8 will have a day off between the semi-finals and finals this week.

So strange that the matches will begin on a Wednesday and not a Thursday this time around.

AVCA All-Americans will be announced Tuesday, November 28^th. Remember, if a player was nominated for All-Region 1^st Team, they will be an All-American. We just don’t know what team they will be on. The following day we’ll have the announcement for Player and Coach of the Year. FYI to coaches, today is the last day you can update statistics for an all-region player.

We might as well look at Hitting Percentage. Remember, only the Top 11 have a chance at winning it this year. The Elite 8 teams in the Top 11 are:

• Juniata

• CMS

• Northwestern

• Johns Hopkins

• Hope

• NYU

UW-Oshkosh is tied for 13^th. Trinity is 16^th. UW-Oshkosh may cause me to change the Top 11 to Top 13 next year.

I want to thank the PLU fans for the great D3VbWest signs. Great showing by your team this week. To the Trinity parents let me just say I expected better from each of you. Julie and I are very disappointed in all of you. Seriously, well played! It was hard to see signs in the streams so if anyone else had one up about the site, thank you!!!!

I’ve mentioned that I have my media credentials for the Championship. My (hot) wife and I are thinking about a trip this upcoming week so I need to stay healthy and find an open flight next Tuesday to SoCal. Quick turnaround but it will happen if my health allows it. I’m happy that Ricky will be there along with a number of coaches I count as friends. I hope to meet any parents that follow the site, as well. I normally wear my yellow Southwestern hat so I’m pretty obvious. I did just get this Texas Rangers World Series Champions hat that may need to be worn but either way, I’ll be the only one with either hat on.

As for this week, depending on what happens with the trip, content may be sparse. I’d love to do a case study or two but those look doubtful right now.