D3VbWest Week 2 Top 25

We now have two weeks of data so I think it’s time to start fresh on the rankings. What we think we knew is replaced by what we think we know. There is a subtle difference there but what makes rankings great is the “think”. We don’t actually know what will happen when two great teams face off despite statistics and past history. So, for this week, I’ll be going through all of the ranked teams (mine and AVCA) plus the undefeated teams plus a few others and looking at their records this year and their Points/Set. What goes away is what I thought in preseason and what I think they should be. With that said, I’ve seen some teams in person and the stream and the eyeball will always get a vote. Here is what I came up with and you can find some explanation down below.

My rank, (my previous rank, AVCA rank), record; key results; P/S (for/against).1 (1, 1) Juniata 6-0, W: CNU, CMU, Berry; 17.9/11.1. 2 (3, 3) Hope 6-0, W: Wittenberg, Ohio Wesleyan; 18.23/12.86. 3 (16, 14) WashU 6-1 W: JHU, CMS; 17.04/16.04. 4 (4, 8) UW-Oshkosh 10-0, W: Carthage, ONU, Millikin; 18.3/12.9. 5 (6, 12) Emory 6-0, W: Tufts, Colorado College; 18.5/12. 6 (8, 7) Johns Hopkins 4-2, W: Colorado College, CMS L: WashU; 16.81/13.83. 7 (2, 2) Claremont-M-S 4-2, W: Trinity L: WashU, Johns Hopkins; 17.6/13.8. 8 (5, 4) Calvin 6-1 W: Wittenberg L: Ohio Wesleyan; 17.30/14.07. 9 (11, 9) UW-Whitewater 6-1, W: Cornell, Coe L: Northwestern; 17.89/11.57. 10 (7, 5) Northwestern 4-1, W: UW-Whitewater L: Cornell; 16.47/14.13. 11 (17, 24) Cornell 6-1 W: Northwestern L: UW-Whitewater; 15.5/14.03 12 (15, NR) Ohio Northern 6-1 W: Millikin, Carthage L: UW-Oshkosh; 16.7/14.4. 13 (18, 11) NYU 6-1, W: Babson; 18.28/13.35. 14 (21, NR) Mt St Joseph 6-0 W: IWU, UW-Stevens Point; Chris Newport; 16.13/12.65. 15 (20, NR) La Verne 6-0 W: UC Santa Cruz; 16.43/13.91. 16 (NR, NR) Ohio Wesleyan 6-2 W: Calvin L: Hope; 15.83/14.21. 17 (NR, NR) Augustana 6-0 W: Coe; 15.88/13.08. 18 (25, 22) Mary Washington 6-0 W: None; 17.4/10.8. 19 (13, 20) Wesleyan 4-0 W: None; 16.73/13.13. 20 (9, 15) UW-Stevens Point 6-2, W: None L: Mt St Joseph, IWU; 15.4/11.83. 21 (NR, 17) Tufts 2-2 W: Trinity L: Colorado College, Emory; 15.59/15.59. 22 (12, 6) Trinity 4-3 W: None L: Tufts, CMS; 15.81/15.37. 23 (14, 13) MIT 6-1 W: None L: Ithaca; 17.18/10.0. 24 (NR, 18) Gustavus Adolphus 7-1 W: UW-Eau Claire; 16.08/13.84. 25 (24, 16) Transylvania 6-2 W: None; 16.55/15.26.

Dropped Out: UC Santa Cruz (10), Wittenberg (19), Chicago (22), Berry (23)

Some big names dropped out this week although some are just the victim of tough schedules. Still, you have to beat some of the teams on your court. Transy held on just barely even though they have a loss at home against Berry who I dropped. I never said I was fair. I had a ton of teams begging to be on the list but I just needed a quality win or two. Teams like Virginia Wesleyan, Washington & Lee, UW-Stout and Elmhurst. Some teams looked the part but got tripped up enough that I passed on them. North Park, Ithaca and Carnegie Mellon are examples there. I definitely spent more time on the bottom two then the other 23. I took the Banana Slugs off, although they are 7-3, because they didn’t look right this weekend taking losses to 3 SCIAC teams and almost a fourth before a late rally. Wittenberg has played a tough schedule but I need some wins there. Chicago dropped matches to both Stevens and North Park, which is too much for me to carry without an outstanding Points/Set number. Berry was a struggle to drop. They are 3-3 with losses to Calvin, Juniata and Carnegie Mellon and a good win over Transy. I figure they will be back but once I couldn’t justify CMU getting on, I dropped them. Should I, instead, have dropped Transy? As I write this, probably. They played an easier schedule this past weekend and got rewarded by me for it. I guess I still like to see a good record.

Looking at the rankings and I think Juniata is far and away the best right now. They are the defending champions and playing that way again. They are undefeated and have played outstanding teams while accumulating great Point/Set numbers. Looking further down the road, they will get an easy regional and probably will only be challenged once they get to the Elite 8. If Vegas has some good odds, this is where my money is.

Of course, I might hedge my bet with some Hope action, too. Addie Vanderweide was one of the DI transfers we highlighted this summer and she has not failed to impress. Here is the rub with Hope right now…they are missing the Rocket in Annie Lockett due to injury. She’ll be back next month but they have picked up where they were last year and will only get better. I have Hope behind Juniata but that might change heading into the tournament once everyone is healthy.

WashU was probably the most impressive team I watched in person this past weekend. Jasmine Sells was just special and a joy to watch on the court. She’s a 6-rotation outside that gets served a ton (and does really well) and is the go-to player on the front row. We should be concerned about that Points/Set against number but they’ve played a tough schedule so I expect the number to drop.

Interestingly, Oshkosh has some common opponents with CMS (Trinity & Carthage) and has played them better. They are rolling and I’m comfortable with their ranking right now. I’m unsure if they are at a Juniata/Hope level but the statistics say they are.

Emory didn’t get to play the top teams at the East/West Challenge but they took care of business against good programs like Colorado College and Tufts. Their statistics look good but they don’t have some of the quality wins that others in Top 5 have. Still, they are doing what they have to do to the teams that share their court.

I was probably most impressed by JHU in set one against WashU. They just looked unbeatable. Of course, WashU then beat them but they did get an impressive win against CMS. They’ve played a tough schedule to date which is dragging down their statistics but you can’t argue with those wins.

I have seen CMS play twice in person and my problem is that I’m comparing them against past CMS teams. They are still really good but we are seeing cracks. Now those cracks will magically go away if they beat Juniata this weekend but right now this team is pretty even with my Top 10 so they needed to be lower in my rankings but still not out of the Top 10.

I haven’t seen Calvin play, yet. Statistics look good although Points/Set against is a little high. Ohio Wesleyan loss is interesting.

I’m going to keep UW-Whitewater, Northwestern and Cornell together as they just finished a tournament in Iowa where they split with each other. Going by Points/Set but also docking the home team and placing them third in this grouping.  Still, a nice jump up by Cornell.

I’d like to see a little better Points/Set number for Ohio Northern but they are doing just fine on the court.

Not sure what I have in NYU so far this year. Points/Set look great but they have a loss to Ithaca at home with their best win being Babson (I guess).

Mount Saint Joseph doesn’t have the great Points/Set numbers but have beaten some decent teams this year. They definitely belong in the rankings but where exactly is still a bit of a mystery to me.

La Verne: See Mount Saint Joseph.

Ohio Wesleyan was intriguing last week and then they take down Calvin. I always love the signature win.

I always describe Augustana as annoying. They just always seem to beat a good team every year but finish around 0.500. Well, this year might be different. They took down Colorado College and Wartburg week one and add Coe this week. Points/Set don’t look great but with no losses and those wins, they need to be ranked.

Mary Washington: See Mount Saint Joseph and then subtract out “beaten some decent teams this year”. (Okay, that was harsh but I don’t let facts get in the way of humor.) (Editor’s Note – I’m struggling with how to write that last line. What I mean is that if I find something funny that may not be entirely true, I’m still writing the humor. Facts will never prevent me from trying to be funny.) (Editor’s Note Again – Yeah, the original line probably wasn’t that funny, but I’m in too deep at this point.)

I have no idea what Wesleyan is right now. They beat an Emerson team in 5-sets and Emerson is usually pretty good. I’ll keep them ranked but behind teams that have losses but have better wins.

UW-Stevens Point Ashley Kopp has been more efficient this year overall but, in both losses, she hit under 0.200 and generated her two worst attacking error matches. The team needs more help around her and I’ll have to move them down the rankings until I see that happening.

I will go ahead and add Tufts to my ranking because they did look pretty good at times this weekend. They did beat a Trinity team in 5-sets so their placement is easy enough.

Trinity’s Point/Set numbers aren’t great but they’ve played a really tough schedule. The other problem is that their best win is Whitworth as they are not beating the highly ranked teams, yet. Having watched them play, they are struggling with putting the ball down. Taken on their 2023 merits, so far, they could be dropped from the rankings but watching them play they are still talented and dangerous. They will get better.

An Ithaca loss at home and wins against average teams tells me nothing about MIT. I’ll know more this weekend with matches at Trinity.

Gustavus Adolphus have a loss against Santa Cruz who I dropped this week. Not sure UW-Eau Claire is enough to get you on the rankings but it appears I did just that so what do I know. As I said above, I really struggled with these last two teams.

Do me proud Transy. I’m going to have every Berry supporter coming after me. Saying that, cross me and I’ll “Berry” you next week. (See what I did there? Berry. Bury. You guys are so lucky to get the quality of writing I write, right?)

As a reminder, Ricky has a Top 25 out so take a look there. Our picks are very close but he has Cornell in his rankings while I have Calvin in my Top 10.