D3VbWest Top 25 (9/9/19)

Here are my rankings for the second week of the season. At the bottom of this post I will be using my Watch List data to construct a “proper” West Regional Ranking per the selection criteria. Intermixed will be snide comments and knowing me I’ll probably say something mean about the New England Region.

My rank, (my week 1 rank, AVCA rank), record, key results last week1 (1, 1) Emory 6-0 W: Chris Newport, Berry. 2 (2, 2) Calvin 6-0 W: Wittenberg. 3 (6, 9) Berry 6-1 W: UMHB, Chris Newport; L: Emory. 4 (NR, RV) Carnegie Mellon 7-0 W: Ithaca, Juniata. 5 (12, RV) Augsburg 7-1 W: Whitewater, Eau Claire. 6 (4, 6) JWU (RI) 5-1 W: None. 7 (13, 5) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 7-1 W: None. 8 (NR, RV) St. Thomas (MN) 8-0 W: Whitewater. 9 (9, RV) UW-Stevens Point 6-2 W: None; L: Bethel. 10 (10, 13) Chicago 6-1 W: None. 11 (5, 3) Juniata 4-2 W: Ithaca; L: Carnegie Mellon. 12 (14, RV) Clarkson 7-0 W: None. 13 (15, 10) Colorado College 7-1 W: None. 14 (3, 7) Trinity 6-2 W: None; L: UT-Dallas, Pac Lu. 15 (17, 22) Saint Benedict 7-1 W: Eau Claire. 16 (19, 12) UW-Whitewater 6-2 W: Carthage; L: Augsburg, St. Thomas. 17 (11, 19) Carthage 7-1 W: None; L: Whitewater. 18 (NR, 17) Hope 5-1 W: Wittenberg; L: DePauw. 19 (16, 8) Wittenberg 3-3 W: None; L: Calvin, Hope. 20 (7, 4) UW-Eau Claire 4-3 W: None; L: Saint Ben, Augsburg. 21 (20, 21) Ohio Northern 5-2 W: None. 22 (NR, RV) Transylvania 6-2 W: UMHB. 23 (22, 16) Wesleyan 3-0 W: None. 24 (18, 15) Ithaca 3-3 W: None; L: Juniata, Carnegie Mellon. 25 (25, 20) Mary Hardin-Baylor 4-4 W: Chris Newport; L: Berry, Transylvania. Dropped out: Christopher Newport [8], Birmingham-Southern [21], Johns Hopkins [23], Gustavus Adolphus [24]

I really don’t like the last two picks of my Top 10 but there were so many losses this week (31 losses by the AVCA Top 25) and a couple of teams sort of hold up other teams in my mind right now. Because of those losses, the Top 25 saw a lot of movement as we get more data to figure out these rankings.

Leaving the rankings are Christopher Newport and Gustavus Adolphus who both lost 4 matches this weekend. I haven’t looked but it wouldn’t surprise me if injuries impacted that but for now we have to go with the results. Birmingham-Southern and Johns Hopkins are dropped simply because they either haven’t played anyone or were off last week and there are teams getting significant wins. I just couldn’t hold their spots at the expense of others.

Coming into the rankings are Carnegie Mellon after a couple of nice wins against Ithaca and Juniata. I believe I have placed them too high but they are undefeated and although the Ithaca win may be a little devalued, the Juniata win gets them in at #4. St. Thomas also jumps into the ranking and the Top 10. Again they are an undefeated team with a good win over Whitewater. Hope has been in the AVCA poll and with their Wittenberg win I couldn’t keep them out any longer. Transylvania is the fourth team to make an entrance as they have wins against Wittenberg and UMHB but are held up slightly due to their loss to Ohio Northern.

Jumping back to the top and going through the rankings, I still like Emory and Calvin as my top 2. I think Emory has better wins than Calvin right now. Berry takes Emory to 5-sets and really it was that loss as opposed to a few nice wins that secured the #3 spot. Augsburg jumps in the Top 5 and have now beaten CMS, Whitwater and Eau Claire. Who knows, maybe they will even be ranked by the AVCA this week. JWU and CMS are still getting some preseason respect from me although the best win between the two is probably St. Olaf (by CMS). I wasn’t happy with Stevens Point and Chicago in the Top 10 but they have to be somewhere. Juniata drops out of the Top 10 due to their week 1 Christopher Newport loss, which is looking problematic now. Clarkson is too high but they do have the Colorado College win. Trinity falls out of the Top 5 held up by their Saint Benedict win in week 1. Whitewater’s win over Carthage this week slots them both in at 16 and 17. Honestly Wittenberg is still in the rankings only because of their Ohio Northern win. Wesleyan could be really good but I just don’t know. They took care of Bowdoin and Wellesley but I have no idea how good they are right now. This is a team that could fly up the rankings once they play someone with a resume, which right now looks like Juniata in mid-October. (Was that mean? Well, I did warn you up at the top.) Ithaca could have been bounced but their losses are really good and I hate to penalize a team for that. Same goes for UMHB. With that said, it won’t take much to put Johns Hopkins back in or BSU or DePauw or St. Olaf or a couple of West Region teams like UT-Dallas or Pacific Lutheran.

Alright, since I’ve put the Watch List together I thought it may be fun to use the selection criteria to see who the RAC would rank in the West Region. If you need an education on the selection criteria then check out the FAQ page and look for the link to the Championship Manual. (Or search a bunch of articles on this website.) I’m using the Massey Ranking’s SOS numbers because I needed something. Since we don’t have regional rankings I obviously don’t have Ranked Wins but you may be surprised how much I have to use them to break ties.

West Region Rankings (9/9/19)

1. Trinity

2. UT-Dallas

3. Cal Lutheran

4. CMS

5. Whitworth

6. Pacific Lutheran

7. UMHB

8. Colorado College

Kind of wonky, right? Let me explain.

Trinity has the second best SOS and a good record. Factor that in with a ranked win advantage because of the better teams they have played and they get the top spot. Pacific Lutheran just beat them but they lose out on SOS and when you have two close teams we’ve learned to discard the head-to-head as it doesn’t help nationally. UTD also has the head to head but loses out on record and SOS.

UT-Dallas gets the second spot on the strength of their SOS and their wins over Trinity and Pacific Lutheran helping them in Ranked Wins.

Cal Lutheran is kind of a surprise at #3 especially over CMS but they have an SOS advantage over CMS and the Augsburg win is probably one of the better wins right now in the West Region.

CMS is hurt by their SOS and their only significant victory is St. Olaf. It’s hard to give them a ranked win advantage over anyone.

Whitworth has a win over Southwestern and a nice record and SOS. Nothing else in the way of quality wins but they are hard to pass over with the record and SOS numbers.

I would put Pacific Lutheran here even though Southwestern should be slotted above them. The Lutes lose out on SOS and head-to-head but Pac Lutheran would have a better chance to be nationally selected. (This is a subtle jab at the West RAC to get this kind of thinking into your heads.)

UMHB has played a tough schedule and they lose to everyone in record but also have the highest SOS. So, with them it comes down to the quality of their wins. It gets them by a few teams but Pac Lutheran’s Trinity win stops them cold at #7.

I again skip over Southwestern for Colorado College due to national selectability. The Tigers have a better record but are hurt by their low SOS. Southwestern has a higher SOS and a win over Pacific Lutheran but what tips it for me are the out-of-region wins that the Tigers have. Not a selection criterion but I would have a much better chance with Colorado College come selection time. (A stronger jab to the West RAC followed by a right cross.)

So, Southwestern really could be as high as #6 on this list if I’m strictly playing by the rules. The same rules that had UT-Dallas getting blocked by La Verne last year and the same rules not followed by the New England Region. (An uppercut to the jaw and down goes the West RAC!)

I considered Chapman, Pomona-Pitzer, McMurry and Concordia but none of them have any quality wins that helped them in this ranking exercise.

A lot is going to change and conference matches are going to help the ordering but it should be kind of obvious that the teams that are better on the court don’t always get regionally ranked that way on paper. If you are new to DIII volleyball then let that sink in. If you are a grizzled veteran of the selection wars then go back to sipping your tea or chugging your beer.