D3VbWest Top 25 (9/17/18)

Here are the rankings for the third week. The Top 25 is for the nation and then below I rank the Top 8 in the West Region. Remember that UT-Tyler is eligible for the Top 25 but not the West Region ranking as they are not eligible for the NCAA Tournament this season.

D3VBWest Top 25 (9/17/18)

My rank, (my Week 1 rank, AVCA rank), record, key results last week1 (1, 2). Colorado College 11-0 W: None. 2 (2, 1). Calvin 10-0 W: IWU. 3 (5, 4). Wittenberg 8-1 W: Ithaca, Thomas More, Ohio Northern. 4 (22, 13). Juniata 6-3 W: WUSTL, Emory, Cal Lutheran. 5 (7, 12). Washington (Mo.) 8-3 W: Cal Lutheran, CMS; L: Juniata. 6 (6, 5). Johnson & Wales (RI) 9-1 W: None. 7 (3, 3). Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 9-2 W: Emory, UT-Dallas; L: WUSTL. 8 (17, 14). Thomas More 11-1 W: None; L: Wittenberg. 9 (8, 23). UT-Tyler 7-1 W: None. 10 (10, 6). Emory 8-3 W: UT-Dallas; L: Juniata, CMS. 11 (23, 20). Ohio Northern 9-3 W: Hope; L: Wittenberg. 12 (4, 17). Hope 10-1 W: Ithaca; L: Ohio Northern. 13 (11, 10). Pacific Lutheran 9-1 W: None. 14 (12, 7). Trinity 10-2 W: None. 15 (21, NR). UW-Eau Claire 11-1 W: NW-St. Paul, G. Adolphus. 16 (13, 9). Gustavus Adolphus 10-2 W: None; L: UW-Eau Claire. 17 (NR, NR). Concordia (Wis) 7-2 W: Chicago, Carthage. 18 (14, NR). Chicago 12-1 W: IWU, Carthage; L: Concordia (Wis). 19 (15, 24). Berry 7-2 W: None. 20 (18, NR). UT-Dallas 6-4 W: Cal Lutheran; L: CMS, Emory. 21 (20, NR). Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-1 W: None. 22 (25, NR). Christopher Newport 5-2 W: None; L: Hurricane Florence. 23 (9, 11). Illinois Wesleyan 5-5 W: None; L: Chicago, Calvin, DePauw. 24 (NR, NR). Springfield 9-0 W: MIT. 25 (NR, NR). Johns Hopkins 7-0 W: None. Dropped out: Cal Lutheran [16], Ithaca [19] and Muhlenberg [24].

Teams also under consideration were Carnegie Mellon, Augsburg, Stevens, St. Olaf and a few others.

Cal Lutheran was dropped after going 0-4 on the week but it was the La Verne loss that did them in. Ithaca was dropped after going 0-4 with losses to Heidelberg and Mary Washington. Both good teams but not Top 25 worthy, yet. Muhlenberg was dropped after losses to Carnegie Mellon and Franklin & Marshall(!).

A few big risers caused some reshuffling in the rankings. Juniata jumps into the Top 5 with a HUGE weekend at the East-West Challenge hosted by CMS. Thomas More probably should have had more of a rise last week from me but gets it here. Ohio Northern piggybacks on to Thomas More as two of their losses are to them. UW-Eau Claire also rises up with nice wins this week. Concordia (Wis) may be too high but I wanted them ahead of Chicago who they beat this week. IWU with the biggest drop this week and they would have been bounced but I didn’t like my alternatives.

A big D3VbWest welcome to Concordia (Wis), Springfield and Johns Hopkins. I would have liked another week with Springfield and Johns Hopkins but they seemed to be the best of the lot and I had spaces to fill.

Christopher Newport had to cancel their matches this week due to the hurricane. Positive thoughts to all impacted on the east coast.

As for the positioning of the Top 10…I still like Colorado College at 1 and Calvin at 2. Wittenberg had a number of nice wins to move into the 3 spot. The next four were positioned based on this weekend and the JWU win over CMS on the first day. UT-Tyler hold on to a Top 10 spot along with Emory with Thomas More sliding into the 8 hole.

Oh, I mentioned this on the wrap-up yesterday but I was tracking the Top 25 a little more closely this week and was looking at “upsets”. Since the AVCA and I have different teams (and ordering) I figured that a count of the upsets might clue is in on who had a better Top 25. My unofficial count had the AVCA with 23 upsets while D3VbWest had only 16. An upset is when a team ranked lost to a team ranked lower or was unranked. I’ll try to mention this information whenever my Top 25 turns out better.

As for my West Region Rankings, here you go:

West Region Top 8 (9/17/18)

1. Colorado College

2. CMS

3. Pacific Lutheran

4. Trinity

5. UT-Dallas

6. UMHB

7. Chapman

8. La Verne

The Top 4 spots stay the same and the only question with them in my mind is the positioning of Pacific Lutheran and Trinity. If they played today I probably would take the Tigers, but I would have said the same thing at the Southwestern Regional last year and see where that got me. Lutes get the benefit of the doubt here, but a good weekend by the Tigers will change this ordering. Cal Lutheran dropped out of the 5^th spot and it was just a matter of where they would land. UT-Dallas beat Cal Lutheran as did UMHB so I had to move them to at least 7. With the La Verne loss at home hanging over their heads I really had to compare the Regals to both the Leopards and Panthers (Chapman). In the end, I liked Chapman more than both and the head-to-head put La Verne in the 8^th spot. Other than Cal Lutheran, the other 2 teams still on the Watch List are McMurry (not a strong enough schedule) and Whittier (a UMHB win but a Puget Sound loss).

I mentioned last week that there was a gulf after the Top 8 teams. In other words, it’s difficult to make an NCAA at-large argument after the 8 teams. Right now, I have a hard time making an argument past UT-Dallas. Even with 4 losses, UT-Dallas has that Trinity win on their resume. UMHB big win is Cal Lutheran and with them dropping down the pecking order that win means less right now. Chapman doesn’t have a great win, yet, and La Verne has a UT-Dallas win but a couple of questionable losses. I can make a case for Cal Lutheran but if they get buried in the West Region the RAC will never have a chance to make the argument. Too early to get worried but we really need the SCIAC to un-muddy the waters with their teams.

For those tracking this at home, with this ordering, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps would host the West Regional. With that said, I doubt 8 teams would make it out of the West right now so that would move the regional over to Trinity.