D3VbWest Top 25 (10/21/2024)

I am officially to the point where I don’t care about these rankings so I am going to mix things up a bit this week. My apologies to any coach that has been using my rankings for their voting. We have the NCAA official release of the NPI Rankings and this is what counts. You can find our simulated rankings and the link to the NCAA rankings here. I still think it’s important to look at the teams with a human eye so we can see areas where maybe NPI is falling short so I still wanted to do something. What brought this on was that at this point, the teams really don’t change out much because conference play is in full swing and few conferences have more than one or two good teams in it. I’ve also wanted to bring in a few teams these past two weeks but really haven’t had the room to do it. You are probably thinking, “Hey Robert! That just means your rankings are too good!” Well, that’s not for me to say but thank you. So, for this week, I thought I would put teams in tiers and see how that plays out. (I think you intelligent coaches that have been using my rankings can still figure out a Top 25 from this.)

As a reminder, this is what I published last week. (I wonder how many people are not going to read the preceding paragraph and think this is my current ranking?)

My rank, (my previous rank, AVCA rank), record; key results; Points/Set.1 (1, 1) Juniata 17-0, W: Susquehanna, Wash & Lee; 18.8. 2 (2, 4) MIT 17-0, W: None; 18.02. 3 (3, 3) Johns Hopkins 18-2, W: Gettysburg, Stockton; 18.17. 4 (4, 6) Emory 16-1, W: CMU, Chicago; 17.89.  5 (6, 7) UW-Oshkosh 19-4, W: None; 17.49. 6 (5, 2) Hope 16-2, W: Swarthmore; 18.02. 7 (7, 5) UW-Whitewater 16-2, W: North Park; 18.48.  8 (8, 10) Millikin 22-3, W: Calvin, Swarthmore; 17.56.   9 (9, 12) Marietta 14-0, W: Otterbein; 17.27.  10 (13, 8) WashU 18-4, W: NYU; 17.67.  11 (10, 9) East Texas Baptist 17-1, W: None; 18.08. 12 (14, 24) Colby 16-1, W: Middlebury; 17.00. 13 (16, 15) La Verne 14-3, W: CMS; 17.88. 14 (11, 14) Case Western Reserve 17-3, W: None L: NYU; 15.42. 15 (15, 19) UW-Platteville 19-3, W: None; N/A. 16 (18, NR) Centre 14-4, W: None; 15.96.  17 (19, 11) Claremont-M-S 13-4, W: None L: La Verne; 17.87. 18 (20, 18) Chicago 18-4, W: None L: Emory; 17.24. 19 (21, 17) Washington & Lee 19-1, W: Bridgewater, Susquehanna L: Juniata; 17.03. 20 (22, 20) Ithaca 14-3, W: None; 17.90. 21 (17, 16) Southwestern 15-2, W: None L: Colorado Col; 16.88. 22 (23, 22) Trinity 13-6, W: None; 17.03. 23 (12, 13) Northwestern 12-6, W: None L: UW-Eau Claire; 15.83. 24 (24, NR) William Smith 14-2, W: None; 16.97. 25 (25, NR) Gettysburg 16-2, W: None L: Johns Hopkins; 16.72.

Dropped:  None

Below, I’ll list my tiers. My process is to go through the above teams and assign them to a tier. I then want to pick up any AVCA ranked teams I don’t have and assign them. I then want to go through the top 40 or so teams according to NPI and assign them. Then, depending on my sanity, we’ll talk about it.

Tier 1

Juniata (20-0)

I don’t think there is much debate here. I do believe they are in a tier by themselves at this point in time. Yes, MIT could be placed here but, if they played, it wouldn’t surprise me if the result was a sweep.

Tier 2

MIT (20-0), Johns Hopkins (20-2) and Emory (17-1)

This tier could have been smaller or larger. What’s interesting is that MIT beat JHU who beat Emory. Still, I think there is a Top 4 right now so I’m going with two top tiers.

Tier 3

UW-Oshkosh (21-4), Hope (19-2), UW-Whitewater (18-3) and Millikin (23-3)

I’ve consistently said that I like our Top 8 in the nation. What separates this group is a strange loss or a loss within this tier. Oshkosh lost to Platteville and Edgewood back-to-back. Hope has a 3-set loss to Oshkosh. UWW has a loss to Oshkosh and Hope. Millikin has a loss to both Oshkosh and Whitewater.

Tier 4

Marietta (17-0), WashU (21-4), East Texas Baptist (19-1), Colby (19-1), La Verne (15-3) and Case Western Reserve (18-4)

This next tier just has some general questions and often is without a win against a team in a higher tier. Marietta is perfect and plays in a tough conference but their best win is against CWRU who is 18^th in the NPI. WashU’s best NPI win is La Verne (23^rd). ETBU has played a lower quality schedule with their best win being CMS (27^th). Colby just has one loss but they’ve basically stayed in New England. Their best win is Middlebury (28^th). La Verne has a loss to Whittier but also wins over CMS (27^th) and Centre (35^th). CWRU has a loss to Muskingum but does have wins over WashU and Platteville.  

Tier 5

UW-Platteville (19-4), Centre (17-4), CMS (13-4), Chicago (20-5), Washington & Lee (21-2), Ithaca (16-3), Southwestern (17-2), Trinity (15-6), NYU (15-9), Salisbury (19-2), UW-Eau Claire (16-6), UW-Stevens Point (17-7) and Carnegie Mellon (13-8)

This group is rather large because they are so messy. UWP has some strange losses but a great win over Oshkosh. They just seem to have a high ceiling but also a low enough floor to be here. Centre is 5-0 in 5-set matches. They easily could be two tiers lower but have a win over CMS. Speaking of CMS, their loss to Centre put them here but their other losses are to teams in a higher tier. Their best win is over Trinity (29^th in NPI). Chicago is a bit up and down. Nice wins over NYU and Calvin but losses to UW-Eau Claire and Carnegie Mellon. Washington & Lee is a tough team to place. They certainly are a lot higher in the NPI Rankings. The problem I have with them is their lower SOS and their best win is Salisbury. Their loss to Christopher Newport keeps them here. Ithaca’s losses are to Stevens, Johns Hopkins and NYU. Nice wins over William Smith, Trinity and Middlebury. I’ve watch Southwestern the most this year and have seen a wide range of play. At their best they beat Trinity and UW-Stevens Point easily and at their worst they struggle with teams they should sweep. I think Trinity could be in a higher tier as they’ve been playing better of late. Another tough team to place. NYU isn’t in my Top 25 but are probably right with Trinity and Ithaca so a good tier for them. Salisbury has been a tad overlooked due to their losses to Carnegie Mellon and Washington & Lee. Still, they have some nice wins over Chris Newport and NYU (both recent). Some good wins and weird losses for UWEC. Still, I think their ceiling puts them here. UW-Stevens Point is here based on a Whitewater win and better results after the first two weeks. CMU is another hard team to place. Good wins and some poor losses. This is a team that makes rankings a tough thing to do.

Tier 6

Northwestern (13-7), William Smith (15-3), Gettysburg (16-4), Whitworth (18-2), Franklin & Marshall (17-3), Babson (20-1), Christopher Newport (15-7), Middlebury (13-5), Ohio Northern (17-5), Eastern (14-6), Calvin (14-7), Cortland (18-5), Endicott (15-5) and IWU (15-6)

An injury has knocked them down. Fully healthy and playing well, this team could be as high as Tier 4. William Smith has a loss to Chicago and Ithaca with their best win being Gettysburg. Two recent losses to Gettysburg and a loss to William Smith have them in this tier. Whitworth doesn’t appear in my Top 25 but this seems like a good tier for them. Their best wins are North Central and UW-Stevens Point. Just not a lot of data points with them. Their losses are Oshkosh and CMS. F&M was in my rankings at one point. They have a win over Gettysburg but losses to William Paterson and Eastern keep them here. Babson’s only loss was to Franklin & Marshall. They really don’t have great wins but do have one over Endicott. NPI does love them but that SOS leaves me wanting. CNU just had a great win over W&L but too many losses to move them higher especially with Salisbury in the tier above (who they lost to). Middlebury is your typical New England team that hasn’t proven much but is greatly loved by the masses (or NPI). Their losses are Ithaca, St John Fisher, Smith and Colby. Their best win is Wesleyan. No idea what to do with ONU. They have a loss to Transy and Baldwin Wallace. Best win is Calvin? Eastern has early wins over F&M and UWEC but a loss to Haverford. Tough season for Calvin. They do have a win over Carnegie Mellon but losses to Chris Newport, Edgewood and ONU. Cortland’s best win is Eastern, I think. Losses to St Ben and teams in this tier keep them here. I watched the Endicott win over Trinity and they are a good team. That’s what makes tier 5 and 6 so tough. These are all good teams. Losses to Eastern, Brandeis and Babson hold them back. IWU has a win over Millikin but just too many losses to move them higher.

Tier 7

Gustavus Adolphus (15-9) and Virginia Wesleyan (18-3)

Hard to argue with a win over Oshkosh, which Gust Adolphus has, but just too many losses since the first match of the season. Virginia Wesleyan’s losses are to F&M, CNU and W&L. That pretty much forces them in this tier.

There are so many other good teams out there but I’m growing tired. Things start going south around Tier 4 and Tier 5 is the group that causes the Top 25 to be so difficult. Looking back at my Top 25 from last week, and I can see some changes that need to be made. There are 27 teams through Tier 5 but I have 2 teams ranked out of Tier 6. Even if I cut them out, I still have to discard 2 teams out of Tier 5. Maybe this week’s matches will help those decisions.