D3VbWest Top 25 (10/14/19)

Here are my rankings for the seventh week of the season. At the bottom of this post I will be using my Watch List data to construct a West Regional Ranking per the Selection Criteria. Remember, this ranking is without emotion although I do interject some opinion when dealing with ranked wins and the quality of the teams played.

A very boring calm week for my top 25 as no one really deserved to be bounced and really no one really deserved to be added. Some slight movements inside the ranking but for the most part not much to talk about. Remember that for a team to be listed as a win under key results it has to be a team I’m looking at for my top 25.

My rank, (my week 6 rank, AVCA rank), record, key results last week1(1, 3) Chicago 18-1 W: None. 2 (2, 2) Calvin 15-1 W: None. 3 (3, 1) Emory 16-1 W: Birmingham-Southern. 4 (4, 7) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 16-3 W: None. 5 (5, 12) Johns Hopkins 20-0 W: None. 6 (6, 9) UW-Whitewater 18-3 W: None. 7 (9, 8) Colorado College 21-2 W: DePauw. 8 (10, 10) Trinity 20-4 W: Ohio Northern, UMHB. 9 (16, 4) Carthage 20-1 W: None. 10 (7, 11) Ohio Northern 18-4 W: UMHB; L: Trinity. 11 (8, 6) Berry 17-4 W: None; L: Birmingham-Southern. 12 (24, RV) Saint Olaf 21-3 W: St. Benedict. 13 (11, 5) Saint Benedict 17-3 W: None; L: Saint Mary’s, St. Olaf. 14 (12, 16) Augsburg 16-4 W: None. 15 (13, 13) Carnegie Mellon 15-4 W: None. 16 (14, 19) Muskingum 19-2 W: None. 17 (15, 14) Juniata 14-5 W: None. 18 (17, 14) Tufts 16-0 W: None. 19 (18, 21) Transylvania 18-4 W: None. 20 (19, 18) St. Thomas (MN) 20-3 W: None. 21 (25, RV) Chapman 15-2 W: None. 22 (20, 20) Hope 13-4 W: None. 23 (23, 25) Wittenberg 10-6 W: Mount Union. 24 (21, RV) Mount Union 18-5 W: None; L: Wittenberg. 25 (22, RV) Susquehanna 21-3 W: None. Dropped out: None

No changes in my top 6 teams this week. One of the big movers was Carthage as I bumped them into my Top 10 at #9. When you look at their resume, their best win is St. Thomas with not much else behind it. They have beaten a number of good teams and their only loss is to Whitewater who I have ranked ahead of them. In the end, what they lack in resume was made up with the eye test and the fact they have no had any bad losses.

Berry can’t seem to beat Birmingham-Southern and it’s cost them a spot in the top 10. Their best win is Wittenberg but they also have a number of good wins on their resume. They are probably the team hurt the most by teams they have beaten being worse than we thought at the start of the season.

Another big mover was Saint Olaf with their recent wins over both Augsburg and St. Benedict. They have losses to CMS, St. Thomas and Gustavus Adolphus, which was holding them down the rankings but I just felt that I needed to reward their recent play.

For the most part, the rest of the movement is in response to the movement described above. I don’t think any team lost more than 3 spots in the rankings. Chapman got a little bump due to their CMS win but also their win against the rest of the SCIAC. Their only losses are to Augsburg and Saint Olaf, which doesn’t seem too bad at this point in the season.

Now we have the West Regional Rankings! Remember, I’m doing my best to follow the selection criteria. The number in parentheses was the rank from last week. I’m using the NCAA numbers for SOS, which was just updated today. Remember the real SOS used in selection is different and I don’t have the ability to simulate it.

West Regional Rankings (10/14/19)

1. Colorado College (4)

2. Chapman (8)

3. CMS (1)

4. Trinity (2)

5. UT-Dallas (3)

6. Whitworth (5)

7. UMHB (6)

8. La Verne (NR)

Man! Skip a week and everything changes! Please remember that I’m doing my best to follow the selection criteria without having Ranked Wins.

We’ve got Colorado College back in the #1 spot this week after being dropped from that spot all the way to #4 two weeks ago. They hold off Chapman as they have a better record and SOS. I assume they will also do better in Ranked Wins. The Tigers actually have criteria leads against everyone but are tied with UT-Dallas.

Chapman makes the big jump to #2 and this really surprised me. Their SOS is pretty low when you look at the other leaders and it’s hard to make up for an automatic criterion loss. What helps is that they have the second best record in the region and I can’t stress enough how important that is for Chapman. Even a single loss has the ability to drop them a number of spots and it only gets worse when comparing teams nationally. It’s possible that the RAC could have UT-Dallas in the second spot and really it will come down to the Ranked Wins criterion.

NOTE – I did the regional rankings before and after the SOS update today. Using Friday’s SOS numbers I had UT-Dallas in the 3^rd spot. They had a big drop over the weekend and now sit in 5^th. These teams are close in the criteria and SOS plays a significant role in where you are ranked.

UT-Dallas is pretty equal with the two teams ahead of them and they do have a claim on the top spot. They move ahead of CMS because of a better SOS although when Ranked Wins gets factored in this may make this comparison a tie. They move ahead of Trinity as they now have a better record and SOS and a head-to-head win.

CMS takes the big dive down to the #3 spot. Colorado College has record and SOS advantages. Chapman has record and head-to-head advantages. With respect to Trinity it could go either way but I think CMS is the better team. Ranked Wins could change this ordering but both teams should do well in this criterion.

As I said, the Trinity/CMS comparison could really go either way. They each have common opponent advantages over the other and it really comes down to whether you like record or SOS better. I think CMS is better so I moved them ahead but that’s not a criterion. It would not surprise me if the RAC faced with the same decision decided they favor SOS and had Trinity ahead of CMS.

As I said in my note, I had to move UT-Dallas down because of their drop in SOS. Remember that the SOS used in selection is different than what the NCAA publishes. It’s just a big unknown at this point. With respect to CMS, record and SOS are virtually identical. I took CMS because they have better wins. With Trinity, UT-Dallas has the head-to-head but I can make a case that Trinity has a common opponent advantage. As I’ve said in the past, if you have two teams that are identical and one has the head-to-head advantage, take the team that lost. It means their national resume is better and that’s why I’ve got Trinity ahead of UT-Dallas.

Whitworth slides a spot in the rankings and they really could go as low as 9^th. The comparison with UT-Dallas isn’t really close but it is with both UMHB and La Verne (and Cal Lutheran). They simply can’t afford losses with their SOS. They do have a win over Birmingham-Southern and that gave them the edge over UMHB.

I took UMHB in this spot because of national selectability. The comparison with La Verne is really close but I think the Leopards record is too poor to get an at-large bid if selection was today. When Ranked Wins comes into play, it’s possible that La Verne will jump the Cru.

La Verne enters the rankings for the first time and as I’ve mentioned they could be as high as 6^th. Their problem is the record and I don’t see that improving too much with only SCIAC matches left. They hold off Cal Lutheran due to record and their head-to-head win over the Regals. Cal Lu would be my 9^th ranked team.

Both Pacific and Concordia were non-starters due to their SOS numbers. They also don’t have significant wins within the region to compensate.Pacific Lutheran has that Trinity win but their record and low SOS don’t give them enough traction to move up the rankings.

Southwestern has the SOS number that the selection committee will like but they are not winning the matches they need to in order to move up the rankings.

Overall, if I was selecting today, I think we have a good chance to get 7 teams into the tournament but UMHB is scary. Ranked Wins could change my mind on this (negatively). I will say that the top 5 are solid for this week but Chapman is the most volatile. If you read my Wrap-Up from today then you know I don’t see Santa Cruz getting a Pool B bid unless a lot of crazy happens. Assuming we get the 7 teams in then it would mean a regional hosted by Trinity as there are 3 Texas teams. Keep in mind my note above. That change in SOS means UT-Dallas went from hosting to being placed in the 5th spot. When the first regional ranking comes out next week, we’ll be able to factor in Ranked Wins and see how that changes things. Expect some surprises in their calculated SOS, too. Stuff is about to get real.