D3VbWest Preseason Top 25

I’m a little late getting this out but it’s still way too early. Maybe this is a plan by me to move the release of my preseason Top 25 out further, which would be brilliant on my part. I think the thing to remember here is that I’m going to be wrong…a lot…and it really doesn’t matter when I release it. To prove that, I’m first going to look at how I did last year and the 2022 results. Nothing too long, but enough to show you that I am clueless. Then, once I have your confidence in a classic reverse psychology gambit, I will layout this year’s preseason Top 25. The big problem with a preseason Top 25 is that we just don’t know who the schools will be returning and who they are adding. A lot of this is based on reputation with a mixture of statistics loss (see my recent articles) and Points/Set numbers from last year. Lacking any real information, I’m not sure what else I could use.

Alright, some history. Last year at this time (although a bit earlier), I had CMS, Calvin, Berry, NYU and Northwestern as my top 5. All five did make the NCAA Tournament with both NYU and Northwestern making the Final 4. My next five were Juniata, Transy, Wittenberg, Whitworth and Southwestern. Juniata won it all and Transy was a very astute selection that made the Elite 8. Although Wittenberg made the tournament, my next two picks did not. This probably tells me I need to back away from the Region X teams a bit. So, out of my Top 10 from last year, I had the eventual champion and four Elite 8 teams. I think that kind of result should be the low bar to shoot for so not too proud of that. As for the other Elite 8 teams I missed:

• Hope and Johns Hopkins – not ranked

• MIT was ranked 13

• Trinity was ranked 16 (I probably need to focus on Region X teams more)

Now, in my defense, it’s been reported somewhere that both Johns Hopkins and Hope cheated last year so maybe I should feel better about my results. Regardless, I will try to do better this year but frankly don’t count on it or was this reverse psychology again?

Here are my rankings followed by some thoughts on these teams below.

D3VbWest Preseason Top 25

1. Juniata

2. CMS

3. Johns Hopkins

4. Emory

5. Hope

6. Transylvania

7. Northwestern

8. UW-Stevens Point

9. UW-Oshkosh

10. UC Santa Cruz

11. UW-Whitewater

12. NYU

13. Wittenberg

14. Trinity

15. Wesleyan

16. Colorado College

17. Calvin

18. MIT

19. Berry

20. Ohio Northern

21. Chicago

22. Mary Washington

23. Johnson & Wales (RI)

24. WashU

25. North Park

I think we have to return Juniata to the top spot to start the year. It’s always hard not to have the defending champion here unless they are losing a lot of players. In this case, they don’t seem to be losing too much so I think they are an easy choice as number 1. Even with their anticipated losses, they should be returning 17 Points/Set (their “base”), which was obtained against a really strong schedule.

I think CMS has played in the best Regional Final the last two years. They took down Wartburg in 2021 in a thrilling match but lost to Trinity (who would finish second to Juniata) last year in a match that will forever be hard to explain. I swear CMS looked like the better team but Trinity just won the points they needed to win. Every time. Trinity just had that “it” factor (experience?). CMS averaged nearly 19 Points/Set last year and should return close to 14 Points/Set this year. Having played multiple lineups last year, they have the players to step in and should, at least, get to 18 Points/Set this season.

Johns Hopkins is basically returning their entire squad and getting a DI grad transfer that should improve their defense over a pretty good defense from last year. Their starting point is right at 16.9 Points/Set so a little more offensive improvement from the returnees puts them in contention for a national title.

I struggled with Emory last year when I watched them but they were a young team and are returning almost their entire squad. They were at 17.5 Points/Set but didn’t perform as consistently as you might expect. That should change this year and I could see them as another title contender.

Rumor has it that Hope is bringing in some DI transfers to augment a rather young core that needs to replace about 7 Points/Set. If true, they shouldn’t have a problem getting back to the 17.5 Points/Set range they were in last season. More rockets from Lockett (Annie) incoming.

Transylvania looks to be losing just one player from an Elite 8 team last season. This was another 17.5 Points/Set team last year so it was no fluke where they ended up. I mean they had to take down Emory and Berry in the tournament so I am backing the Vampires again this year. (Yes, I know they are the Pioneers but please.)

Northwestern looks to be returning around 12.5 Points/Set and still have their top 2 hitters so they should be just fine. They just recruit so well and are always a strong program so it’s difficult to bet against them.

These UW schools are tough and I find it interesting that I’ve got them grouped. Can Ashley Kopp (UW-Stevens Point) be better than last year (664.5 Points)? Can they find more offense around her to take off some of the pressure? They are losing some of their defense but Kopp gives them the edge over the other UW schools in my mind.

I struggled a bit with Oshkosh and have had them in multiple spots as I did this write-up. They finished at 16.2 Points/Set last season but aren’t losing anyone. They had a great season that was ended by Calvin in the tournament. I think this is probably their floor but they are also playing in an always tough WIAC and then will get a horrible draw in the tournament. I guess my final thought on the Titans is that they will be better than whatever final ranking they get.

UC Santa Cruz averaged just over 17 Points/Set and should be returning their hitters this fall. They are playing a very tough schedule and now have NCAA Tournament experience (although it wasn’t a pleasant experience). Are they ranked a little too high? Yes. Are they getting a D3VbWest bounce? Yes. Are they really this good? Yes.

Whitewater looks to be losing a hitter, their setter and their libero. They also are losing players from the service receive. Still, I worry primarily about Points and they have a base of just under 13 Points/Set so if they can fill in the holes and get some production for their lost hitter, they should be really good team again this season.

NYU is interesting because they should be losing Holz and Spaethling, which will hurt but you just never know about those Super Seniors. In the case of Spaethling, I think she actually has 2 more years of eligibility despite being an academic senior last year. Without them, they are returning a little over 10 Points/Set. I think they are in a pretty good position to replace the statistics but I’ll point out that they only averaged 16.7 Points/Set so they were a slight outlier with how well they did last season.

Wittenberg was confusing last year with some really nice wins and some questionable losses. They kind of did the same thing the year before. They are a historically great program that seems capable of great things but are losing a good middle from the squad. They have a base Points/Set of 12 and they shouldn’t have an issue replacing those statistics. I’d just like to see more consistency for a higher ranking.

Trinity is going to suffer some serious losses this season and even with their true seniors coming back, I see them starting around 10 Points/Set. I do see them being fine outside and recovering nicely in the middle so it will come down to the right side for how high they end up on these rankings at the end of the year. Bottom line, Trinity is one of the best at recruiting so I’m very confident I have them too low here (again).

Wesleyan always has a pretty good squad and does well in the New England regions. They are losing a hitter, their setter and most of their defense but they will probably be able to replace it all. The question is how does it translate against top teams from other regions (just looked at their schedule and I guess I don’t need to worry about that outside of NYU).

Just looking at the statistics, Colorado College should be higher on these rankings. They are a young team losing just one senior and returning over 16 Points/Set. It seems logical they can find another 1 Point/Set this season with the additional experience and be the best team in the SCAC and maybe a top 10 team overall. I guess I just need to see it all come together first. If UCSC gets a D3VbWest bounce then CC is getting the D3VbWest drop.

Three big hitters should be leaving Calvin along with their entire service receive and most of their digs, but this is Calvin. They are starting around 6 Points/Set but their reputation gets them this ranking, which isn’t really fair but there you have it. Bottom line with the Knights is that they probably won’t be here at the end of the year. They will either be Top 10 or out of the rankings. Of course, the AVCA voters love Calvin’s reputation, too. (I can’t wait to criticize them for it without concern that I’m doing the same thing.)

MIT should be losing two good hitters and will drop down to around 11.5 Points/Set. I think they will take a step back but someone from the New England region has to make the Elite 8 (NCAA Bylaw 102.4 subsection 3) and MIT is usually one of the best programs in their regions.

Berry is losing two wonderful hitters and their outstanding setter. They do have a big squad and this is another team that recruits well. By all rights they should be above Calvin but I’m banking on Calvin’s reputation. Both teams are a bit of a wildcard to me.

Ohio Northern underperformed their Points/Set number last year but they play in a tough conference and region. They are returning pretty much their entire team so I think it makes sense to bring them into the Top 25-fold. Don’t make me look stupid!

Chicago played a crazy tough schedule last year and would look like world beaters when I watched them at times and then look very mortal at other times. They lose a good hitter but this squad has to be super tough after 2022 so no reason they can’t take another step up.

Can I make this my Mary Washington/Christopher Newport spot? I figure one of them, if not both, will do enough to be in the Top 25 so maybe I should have just put both here. They each are starting around the same base Points/Set and CNU probably has a better reputation to replace their losses but I’m just feeling Mary Washington a little bit more. Uh…in a volleyball sense only. Don’t go sideways on me!

There will be another New England school in the Top 25 if not a couple more. Tufts, Babson, Bowdoin could all be here. Heck, they put Williams here at the end of last year. * eyeroll * They are all good programs that replace talent well but their starting Points/Set have scared me off. In this case, I went with JWU as they are returning a lot of talent. The question for them is can they elevate their Points/Set another point or two with this same group. I guess I’m betting they will.

Washington-St Louis is losing two big hitters, their libero and most of their service receive. Pretty much Calvin revisited and the program is also very impressive when replacing talent through the years. Still, I see them stepping back a bit this year before coming back strong in 2024. It’s rare not to see them in the Top 25 at the end of the year so another reputation pick for me.

North Park won their conference in 2022 and averaged 16.9 Points/Set while beating teams like Hope, Chicago and Millikin. They are another team that is returning their squad so the question shouldn’t be why they are here, it’s why I don’t have them higher.

From the 2022-year end final rankings, I’ve dropped 6 teams (Gustavus Adolphus, Otterbein, Christopher Newport, Williams and Coe). The final rankings get corrupted because a number of voters treat the NCAA Tournament bracket as fair. If a team makes a Regional Final, then they must be one of the best 16 teams in the nation. It’s really hard to let that amount of stupidity wash over me when it happens but I’ve become more numb to it. It’s like the voter that just goes off record when they vote during the year without regard to whom a team plays. Johns Hopkins plays Juniata, Wittenberg, WashU, Colorado College and CMS in five of their first six matches. They could easily be 4-2 and still be the third best team in the nation. That voter, however, will have them behind a slew of really mediocre teams playing bad schedules with one or no losses. Of course, we also can’t forget the need to have New England schools in the Top 25. Just too many voters from that region that prop themselves up because of their “success” in two weak regionals where the NCAA is too afraid to send quality teams. Whoa! Look who’s getting ready for the 2023 Volleyball Season! This guy!

There were a number of teams that just missed out but I don’t feel like naming them here. Rest assured that the team you follow was number 26. If only you had contributed to the site more maybe they make that jump into the rankings. Bribes also work well in case you were wondering. In an unrelated note, shout out to those great Mary Washington parents!

All joking aside, there it is. The AVCA will come out with their rankings in mid-August. I still hope that one coach will just use my rankings for their input but I’m sure someone would get mad at them. Failing that, since all of the teams have zero wins, just put in a 400+ team tie.