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D3VbWest Preseason Top 25
It’s time for the D3VbWest Preseason Top 25! I think the world considers this the start of the volleyball season and, although the pressure is immense, I’m here for it. The NCAA Power Index (NPI) has really made the rankings more pointless than they were previously, but I think it’s always good to check the landscape and see who might be the surprise teams of 2025. As is my tradition, I first start off checking my results from last year’s preseason rankings. Sort of my metric on how well I’m doing.
In the previous year (2023), I hit on five of the teams in the Elite 8 including getting the national champion positioned in the first spot. For this past season, I also hit on five of the eight (and got the champion correct) as I started off strong with Juniata, Hope, JHU, Oshkosh and Emory. I missed on La Verne (ranked 11th), Whitewater (24th) and Washington & Lee (unranked). I’m proud of the La Verne love but I just didn’t have the courage to get them into my Top 10. That will not be a problem this season. Whitewater was losing a ton of talent but got a couple of excellent transfers (that I was unaware of at the time) and came ohsoclose to winning the title. Washington & Lee was just a miss but it shows everyone that is not on the below rankings that they have a shot. (It’s almost like I left W&L off the 2024 rankings on purpose to prove this point.) In 2023, I did get the entire Elite 8 in my first 14 selections so an off year last season for me. As always, I’ll endeavor to be better.
Here are my rankings followed by some thoughts on these teams below. My methodology is a lot of guessing, relying on history and then some statistical analysis thrown in just to mess it up. I concentrated on Points Lost to graduation, 2024 Points/Set and 2024 NPI. I also used 2024 Opponent NPI to eliminate some teams as I couldn’t trust their stats against weaker competition. Last season, I was really sure about those top 5 teams and that panned out. This season, I think it’s wide open and I actually went away from history a lot, which makes this ranking a lot of fun with teams you might not expect but probably error riddled.
D3VbWest Preseason Top 25
La Verne
UW-Eau Claire
Colby
NYU
Millikin
UW-Platteville
Trinity
Christopher Newport
Washington & Lee
MIT
Emory
Johns Hopkins
Illinois Wesleyan
Franklin & Marshall
Gettysburg
Carnegie Mellon
Juniata
Ithaca
Smith
East Texas Baptist
Calvin
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
William Smith
UW-Oshkosh
Hope
I really didn’t want to put La Verne first. That’s a lot of pressure to take although I strongly doubt the AVCA follows my lead here. Here’s the thing, I just kept eliminating the teams in the same tier from last season based on how much they were losing to graduation. With La Verne, they lose a couple of good players but they retain (soon to be Player of the Year?) Mya Ray and still have a strong supporting cast plus they add a couple of transfers including one on the defensive end where they probably needed some help. Bottom line, Coach Jeff Hendershot is all-in on Mya Ray’s senior season and, I guess, I’m along for the ride, too.
UW-Eau Claire is going to be a surprise this high up but they just don’t lose a lot to graduation although Ella Kiebel (setter) is also gone so that’s not going to help things. Still, they have Hannah Thole returning along with a good first year recruit. They had a 17.18 Points/Set number in 2024 and should be better so getting close to 18 won’t be a surprise. If they do that then they justify this ranking.
I can’t tell you how I hate putting New England teams high in my rankings simply because they never perform when it gets to be Elite 8 time. In addition, the Selection Committee is no longer giving the region a free pass in the tournament. With that said, I give you Colby. They are going to be better than last year so I have them as the best team in the New England regions. What I really like here is that they are going to make a trip over to Whitewater in October to play both Oshkosh and Whitewater so they are going to know what they need come NCAA Tournament time. I think this is an Elite 8 team that will be hosting a regional and I don’t think whomever the Selection Committee puts in to challenge them will win. So, no reason to shy away from this position.
The Points/Set number from NYU last season worries me a tad. They lost to MIT in the second-round last year but this is another case of a team that really isn’t losing much compared to others. I moved them up a bit higher than I had them once I saw some video of junior transfer Tatum Chase. She is going to raise that Points/Set number in 2025. They have to replace a second setter and their libero but their offense is going to be a lot better.
I’m going to handle Region VIII teams UW-Platteville and Millikin together because I really struggled to separate these two. After learning Millikin will be losing setter Gracie Shaffer while Platteville will be losing their libero (Bri Gartner) and middle Delany Graves, I’ll give Millikin the 5th spot in my rankings. This region is going to be tough, regardless, as I already have 3 teams in the Top 6, which is really self-defeating. One of these teams, at least, will be in a regional with Eau Claire if my rankings hold true so there is no way I’m going to be right here. Both of these teams are really deep and both made it to their regional final last season.
On the AVCA cheat sheet, I noticed a number of coaches didn’t list the number of years at the school. I think in Julie Jenkin’s case it’s because she is Trinity volleyball. She will always be Trinity volleyball. Heck, I think the school should list how many years it has been in existence prior to Coach Jenkins coming on board. This is another regional finals team that I’m placing above the team they lost to last season simply because they are keeping more of their talent. Also, in Trinity’s case, I know they are going to recruit well so they get the respectful nod from me while I’m cursing them under my breath.
Their schedule ensures that Chris Newport will not be at this position most of the season and I don’t see them getting a Top 8 protected spot but I think they are a strong Elite 8 contender. They are returning most of their talent while also getting Avery Hanly back after an injury ended her season early. This is already a battle tested squad and yet another regional finals team that I have ranked ahead of the team that beat them. Betting against last year’s Elite 8 is a suckers bet but that’s where my money is.
I’m not sure how to replace two players like Allie Buchholz and Avery Myers and for the longest time I had W&L lower in my rankings but they are only the second Elite 8 team from last season to be in my preseason Top 10. I may not know how to replace these players but I’ll put my trust in Coach Bryan Snyder. It will be interesting to see how much of an impact first-year player Cara Hamil has with this team and I think that will be a big story for the Generals this year. She looks to be an extremely smart hitter that can attack from the back row. The rest of the team, especially the defense, will be high-level and I think it’s a matter of whether the offense can reach that level.
Look. Do I have MIT here simply because Coach Paul Dill is my BFF? Of course. Do I really think two New England teams will finish in the Top 10 this season? Probably not. In fact, if two teams did, Smith probably has an equal chance of doing it. Seriously, this is about MIT always being good and they should be well positioned for a deep NCAA Tournament run where they always seem to make a regional finals.
To say that I don’t really trust most of the 2024 Elite 8 teams this season is an understatement. I slid Emory up my rankings late in my process despite the loss of Madison Cail and Alana Dawson simply because they still have a lot of talent, are always a deep team and recruit well. I also don’t like betting against Kate LaRocco who is just fun to watch.
Similar to Emory, I’m not sure how much I trust Johns Hopkins this year but, like LaRocco, I’ll bet on Simone Adam and a big impact from transfer Michela De Marzi. It will be interesting to see how the coaching change from Matt Troy to Bayleigh Braswell works out. A lot of times, a simple change in messaging is enough to push a team over the edge and the 2024 version of this team was right there last season. Still, losing a Simrin Carlsen and Jilienne Widener will be tough to replace and why I do not have them in my Top 10.
IWU was a team on a roll at the end of the season and they needed every bit of it to make the tournament eventually losing in the regional final to Oshkosh. They return the bulk of their squad so here is another regional final team ranked ahead of the team they lost to last season. Their Points/Set number is a little lower than those ranked here but this is about how they played to end the season and that they should be a better team in 2025.
F&M seems to be putting out tougher and tougher teams each season and I don’t see that ending in 2025. They had a really good Points/Set number and most of the players that contributed to that number are returning.
Gettysburg’s won 24 matches last year and made it to the second round of the tournament before losing to Middlebury. They lose Cat Holtz but retain their top 3 hitters. They should have similar success this season and probably actually improve a bit. I will say that I struggled with having Gettysburg in the rankings but not having a spot for Middlebury. Gettysburg just had a better year (and numbers) overall.
Carnegie Mellon is my 3rd UAA team to make the rankings. They beat a tough Cortland team in the tournament last season before losing to Johns Hopkins. They just squeaked in last season but I think they are in better shape now. I was a little worried about their smaller roster but they are picking up a transfer in Kate Giang along with 6 first-years. If they can hit on just one of those recruits, they will be in great shape to add to a really good squad.
My fifth Elite 8 team from last season ranked is also our defending champion, Juniata. There will be a lot of voters that put Juniata first and I understand that level of respect. Who knows, they may still be the best team in the nation simply because their second team had to play the best every day in the gym (that line was stolen from a coach who has them #1), but I don’t see it. They will still win their conference and they will still be in the NCAA Tournament but it will be a race to see how good Coach Pavlik can get this squad before it begins. They play a really tough schedule and everyone is going to want to say that they beat the champions. I came really close to not ranking Juniata but I also have a ton of respect for this program. With that, I tip my Southwestern cap to Olivia Foley, Kennedy Christy, Sky Rousset-Hernandez, Mackenzie Coley, Lily Podolan, Sydney Ohl and Courtney Williams. “That’ll do.”
Give me Ithaca at this spot. There are so many teams that are bunched that this is like throwing darts. Ithaca always has a strong team and will be returning libero Ellie Benedict for a fifth season. Their offense is mostly intact and this is another team that recruits well. I’ll be shocked if Ithaca doesn’t finish in the Top 25 at the end of the season.
I had Smith a little higher but they got moved down in my last run through just because all of the teams are so close. To be frank the NCAA Tournament loss to Ithaca had me slot them behind the Bombers. Smith is really building a great program and it will be interesting to see if they continue to recruit well.
ETBU could be placed a lot higher simply because of Graycee Mosley and the strength of their season last year, but they lost a great outside in Avery Reid along with their 3rd and 4th best hitters. That’s tough to make up no matter how well Coach Matthews recruits. Normally, I’d say that Mosley would have to step up more to make up the difference but I feel she’s already maxed out with the number of swings she takes. This is going to be a really good team…I just don’t think they will hit the levels of last season.
Calvin and Hope. They are always linked in my mind. Hope has been the alpha of late but I think that changes this season but it’s going to be close. I think Calvin’s easier (NPI friendly) schedule will ensure that they are ranked but I’m not sure it will tell us how good they are. They are losing their 2nd and 4th best hitter but everyone else returns. They missed out on an at-large bid last season by the smallest of margins, but I think that changes and matters will be helped if first-year recruit Sarah Bradley comes in strong.
CMS is my fourth and last team from the West in my rankings. Another team that performed at a high-level last year but one that is losing a lot of talent. One thing to watch is how CMS replaces setter Georgia McGovern. I think they move to a 6-2 rotation, which means they better have two opposites ready to take a big load of the offense. (Breanna Bell was the primary opposite last year and she has graduated.) If that happens then expect CMS to have another strong offense but they also have to replace libero Dede Carranza. Just too many questions for me to rank CMS higher.
William Smith is the only team that I’ll rank that didn’t submit anything to the AVCA and their cheat sheet. I have them with no graduation loss and this is a team that made the NCAA Tournament last season. They should be better and could have been ranked higher.
For those scoring at home, I left one Elite 8 team off my Top 25 as I finally get to Hope here. That team is Whitewater. A Top 8 protected squad that pushed Juniata to a fifth set in the championship. More on them in a second. With Hope, this is all about the program always being one of the best in nation. Depending on their recruits, they could be Top 10 easy. I can only go off the information I have and it appears they will take a dip this year as they do not have their annual DI transfer coming in and they lose Addie VanderWeide, Alison DeWeerd and Annie Lockett. That’s nearly 1200 Points across the stage and out the door! I came close to Whitewater’ing them and leaving them off but I think they have a better path to get to the tournament than UWW.
Oh boy! Betting against the Elite 8 is a fool’s game so I made sure to stuff a few of them in at the end. Great programs will be great but they can have an off year. It’s rare, but it does happen. Will that happen to Juniata, Oshkosh, Hope and Whitewater this season? Doesn’t seem likely but that’s what this ranking is saying. I hope, if nothing else, you respect the limb I’m on and not take a saw to it.
As for Whitewater, it would have been easy to leave off William Smith and put them on but I did this to teams that could have been ranked already with the others so I thought I would take a stand. My big issue with Whitewater is that they play a tough schedule and in one of the toughest conferences, which have three teams in my rankings. They can be better than I think and still struggle record-wise.
I had 46 teams on my list when I was done. Some teams that I backed off from due to their graduation losses were Whitewater, Transy, Marietta, Northwestern, Salisbury, Chicago, CWRU, WashU, UW-Stevens Point, Ohio Northern, Cortland, Berry and Wesleyan. There are some serious heavy hitters there! Teams I wanted to find room for were Centre, Southwestern, Gustavus Adolphus, Middlebury, St Olaf, St Benedict, Wellesley and Virginia Wesleyan. Most of this last group were really good last season and are returning a lot of talent.
Last season, I felt really good about the Top 5 teams. This season I don’t feel good about any of this. I really don’t. I have La Verne first because they may have the best player in the country, have tournament experience, scored over 18 Points/Set last season and are returning the bulk of their team. If their name was Juniata, Hope, Whitewater, Oshkosh, Johns Hopkins, Emory or even Washington & Lee then I think everyone would have them first. I have no clue about 2 to 5. Eau Claire is a bit of a reach. Colby is a reach based on history. NYU feels good but they had the lowest Points/Set number last season than any team in my Top 10 other than Washington & Lee. Millikin (or Platteville) look strong to me but I think both have a lower ceiling than the other teams.
One thing to remember in all of this is location. Some of this ordering just can’t happen because of where the schools are located and who they will play. I tried to not let that impact my thinking too much. I mean, if I’m right, Colby could be undefeated when they go to Whitewater and be the #1 team in the nation (their toughest tests will be away matches against MIT and Smith to that point). That doesn’t make them the best team but the schedule (and NPI) will make it so if they perform to their schedule. We still have a lot of regional bias built into our sport at this level. With that said, Colby is going to be really good.
Bottom line, I said that 2024 was going to be the greatest season in DIII volleyball history and I think I was right. The talent level across the board was outstanding. I think 2025 may be the most competitive from 1 to 50 than we’ve ever had. I think the championship is wide open but I hope, in the end, that I’m giving Coach Hendershot a big hug come December.
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