COVID and a thought on Colin Powell

Thirty years ago while preparing for Desert Storm, Colin Powell is noted for demanding that the US-led force have an exit strategy or endgame.  His concern was that allied forces would go in, let objectives get fuzzy, and leave the US/united forces stuck in Iraq for an indeterminate amount of time.   There is, of course, irony here in that the president he served was George Bush, the elder and that it was the younger George Bush who led a second invasion of Iraq–but with fuzzy goals, a lack of understanding of consequences…and American forces still in Iraq (and Afghanistan for that matter) two decades after the notorious display of the ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner.

Like everyone else, I’ve been hanging out with downtime during mandated social isolation.  This gives me time to do something I like to do quite a bit–>think.  So here I am writing some stuff–with an apology that it may ramble slightly.

I don’t think the end game has been thought through by experts properly.  Indeed, I understand the rational frustrations some have shown as things have changed over the past two months.  As they say, the goalposts keep moving.  Are we under quarantine for the sake of ‘flattening the curve’ or now that it is “necessary” until a vaccine is found.

If it is until there is a vaccine–that’s outright stupid.  First, viruses mutate, so that any vaccine found may not be worthwhile six months down the road.  Second, we don’t know how long it will take to find an effective one.  Everyone idling for 4-5 years will not work.

It is unfortunate that President Trump was flippant with a comment.  He noted that “We can’t let the solution destroy the economy.”  He looked like he was putting the stock market (and honestly, his re-election chances) in front of the well-being of the nation.  With that said, is his assessment really wrong?  There are issues involved with staying at home:

1. No money for needy families where breadwinners don’t work in ‘essential’ positions.

2. I have not seen/do not know if they exist…what are the statistics related to domestic abuse over the past two months?  Are police going on more calls–or are victims scared to do anything for fear of being sent back into Hell?

3. Depression/mental health.  There’s no measure of the damage being done to peoples’ psyches.  I’m thankful it happened in spring when the opportunity to regularly go outside has been available.

4. The longer things are shut, the more likely they are to stay shut.  I heap scorn on the multi-billion dollar corporations that got handouts instantly–any self-respecting business should keep a 30-60 day reserve to survive emergencies.  In Illinois, we’re now about Day 67 of restrictions.  We are at the point small businesses are tapped out.

These are serious issues.  The counter is the health of millions which brings us back to Powell.  What’s the endgame?  If the virus cannot be stopped outside of its own mutation, what is the point we reopen businesses and return to a more normal life?

Another issue is rural areas vs. large cities.  Two of the places hardest hit have been Chicago and New York.  That is millions of people in a small area.  There are more people in the Chicago area than the Great Plains states combined–so a solution for the maximum benefit of Chicago completely cripples life in a rural area.  This is inefficient.  Should someone in Tolono face the same restrictions as Chicago?  Perhaps the answer is no, maybe it is yes–after all, while small towns don’t have population density, they also lack hospitals.

I believe (still) in social-isolation as a needed measure, but…it is difficult to accept the situation when the expansion of bed space/medical facilities for COVID treatment are disassembled and eliminated.  We return to the original rationale: We need isolation to flatten the curve and make sure medical facilities are not overwhelmed.  Eliminating capacity means it is excess which means what currently exists is sufficient in the minds of decision makers–which means the curve has been sufficiently flattened by the original goals of the situation.  Hospitals are beginning *elective* surgeries again.  These aren’t essential operations–if that’s the case, isn’t it logical to think that hospitals are no longer worried?  Or–has the 60-day isolation caused financial stress on hospitals so that continued full isolation runs the potential of closing some hospitals (which would happen primarily in rural regions)?

Of course, I can see both sides.  Unfortunately, many people are jackasses, certainly among those demanding reopening immediately.  It is inexcusable that a US Senator (Rand Paul) or a US VP (Pence) would go around without masks when they may have been exposed to the virus and then expose others–Paul wound up testing positive and forced at least six other senators into quarantine by his actions.  Michigan’s rednecks charging into the legislature armed with guns doesn’t help their situation–those same rednecks would scream bloody murder if it had been 200 black men with AR-15s doing what they did.  For people trying to see reason, that sort of behavior causes heels to dig in.  Rather than get us to the point of reopening, it extends the isolation.  Behaving like a 5-yr old achieves nothing other than get you attention (see: US President, 2016-2020).

Anyone telling you this is about a government takeover–that’s bullcrap.  Governors don’t make ‘power grabs’.  In US history, that’s always been the president and Washington DC doing that.  Governors are doing what they are supposed to do–that’s a good thing.  When the President says he is ordering governors to obey, that he is in control–THAT is a power grab because the president has no power over them–check out the 9th/10th Amendments to the Constitution.

Do not believe those who say the government is infringing on the right to free speech (such as social media constantly deleting the P*a*d*m*c video) or freedom of religion.  This isn’t true in either case.  Freedom of speech can be restricted when it can be shown to have the potential to cause great harm to the general public (why you can’t yell “Fire” in a movie theater)–which is why governors have the right to disallow in-person religious services since congregations are easy places to spread disease (especially if singing is involved as singing MASSIVELY increases the chance of virus communication).  It is only a constitutional infringement if the government steps in and bans online services, televised services, or radio services.  It is an infringement if your transcripts of a service are confiscated and destroyed.  That hasn’t happened–what you have is a few selfish ‘pastors’ more interested in tithes/the collection plate/protecting their mansions than the good of their flocks.   Now, if a preacher wants to hold a service in a parking lot, keep people in their cars–I have no problem with that.  Want them to stand as a family, one for every three parking spots and you can keep them distanced…go for it.  In the pews of a megachurch–nope, you’re a greedy bastard hucking fake cures.

My state, Illinois, put a plan in place with multiple steps/stages for reopening.  It is an unrealistic plan, by the way, with standards that theoretically could never happen.  Other states have stage plans as well, some of which are well thought out–shout-out to Governor DeWine in Ohio for this.  The problem is–I’m coming to the conclusion that reopening can’t happen in stages.  This is going to be a rush back to ‘normal’ behavior, like a hole in a dam…it won’t stay small–pressure is going to tear that hole bigger until the dam collapses.

Think about it–if jobs start up, then you have to permit daycare…otherwise a bunch of people can’t work.  If daycare is open, then there’s no reason to keep schools closed–in which case, why are universities closed?  We are now permitting 40-30,000 groups together…which eliminates the logic of any other general restrictions.  What makes a hair stylist essential but not a car salesman?  Why a dog groomer but not a secretary?  Why a taxi driver but not an attorney?  Road repair crew, but not new house construction?  We blur the line of what is essential until the term is meaningless.

A different issue with schools is that distance learning is ineffective with young people.

1. Attendance online in public schools runs from 30-75%.

2. Not every student has access to the internet.

3. Not every student has a computer or tablet.

4. Some families have a computer–which of the 4 kids gets to use it?

5. Young children lose the socialization skills that come with actual school attendance.

The Economist noted a strike in half of Belgium twenty years ago which eliminated almost an entire school year for kids in that area.  Twenty years down the road, kids from that half of the country lag behind the other half by something like 20% in terms of employment rate and income and are 20-30% beyond it in divorce rate and other issues like drug use.  At the college level, something like 70% of students cheat when taking on-line classes–there’s no accountability and it’s easy to sit with two other people and do the work together during what is supposed to be class.  There are limited ways to restrict this–and they aren’t available during enforced social isolation.

Just as important–I mentioned states are in charge, not the federal government.  That’s going to cause pressure to reopen.  The minute Iowa/Missouri lift restrictions–what  happens in Illinois which is under lockdown?  While the governor has the right to put restrictions in place, he has *no* right to put restrictions on interstate travel–that’s clearly a federal decision.  Do you keep Illinois closed–because anyone within 30 minutes of an open border WILL go there?

So…that’s what I think.  I think I’ve decided things need to reopen, put a fixed date on full reopening–make it something like June 1 or June 15 and then be braced for a surge in virus cases–which will happen.   This is not about me wanting to see people die (because I have former players who have been thru hell with COVID)–I just think that things such as disassembling of hospital setups, etc means the curve is flattened.

Those are my thoughts today.  I reserve the right to change them.  Present cogent thoughts to the contrary in the comments and I reserve the right to have you change my mind.

Also of note–I’m aware of groups which run a higher risk.  I belong to a couple of them…over 50 and a family history of lung issues…and being 20lbs overweight.  So, back to the initial query–>What’s the answer to Powell’s query…what is the exit strategy?

If you can’t identify it…think about why that’s the case…your blame should lie with that answer.