top of page
Search

Conference/Region Previews!

Writer: goldenstateservicesj
goldenstateservicesj
Aug 12, 2022
9 min read

Two big trips planned this month (one done and one to come) have hindered some writing/research so I was pretty confident that I would skip conference previews this year. I mean I just did the statistics loss articles and there isn’t much else for us to go by. Anyway, I just sent out a DM to each of the four Region X conferences to see when they were going to release their conference previews and it got me to thinking that maybe I should do the conference previews. (Side note, I will determine conference love by who responds the quickest.)

What I’m doing with this article is looking at all of the Region X conferences (sorry C2C and UCSC) and providing some thoughts in addition to my predicted order of finish. I will list the 2021 order of finish and what I have for their points statistic loss, which may or may not include Super Seniors and which will definitely be wrong because most rosters aren’t finalized. I’ll also look to see how bad my 2021 predictions were.

Starting with the ASC, here is their 2021 order of finish with their points loss:

  1. UMHB 45.2%

  2. UT-Dallas 36.6%

  3. LeTourneau 41.5%

  4. ETBU 39.7%

  5. Sul Ross State 8.9%

  6. Concordia 6.6%

  7. McMurry 26.9%

  8. Hardin-Simmons 24.2%

  9. Howard Payne 16.4%

  10. Belhaven * No longer in the conference

As we may remember, UT-Dallas “upset” UMHB in the conference tournament final to gain the only NCAA Tournament bid received by this conference. The UMHB 2021 schedule was so poor that despite their outstanding record, they were not regionally ranked at the end of the season. Unfortunately, the Cru has repeated this scheduling mistake for 2022.

Before I predict the 2022 season, here is what I had for my 2021 predictions:

  1. UT-Dallas

  2. UMHB

  3. LeTourneau

  4. Concordia

  5. McMurry

  6. ETBU

  7. Sul Ross State

  8. Hardin-Simmons

  9. Belhaven

  10. Howard Payne

Not horrible, right? Remember that we didn’t have a lot of data to go from after our Covid year. I take three wins for the ordering of the top 3. Concordia struggled early and just made it into the conference tournament. McMurry faltered from my predictions but I also think they had some Covid issues, if memory serves. ETBU finished better than expected and Sul Ross State stepped into the void McMurry left. Overall, I think I had it pretty close.

ASC 2022 Predicted Order of Finish

  1. UT-Dallas

  2. UMHB

  3. Concordia

  4. Sul Ross State

  5. ETBU

  6. McMurry

  7. HSU

  8. LeTourneau

  9. Howard Payne

Now I remember why I didn’t like doing these things. I always have to annoy every school but one. I think UT-Dallas is getting more players back than UMHB and has a tougher schedule so they should be in fine form. I really like Concordia this year (although I really liked them last year, too, and that didn’t work out so great) and had thoughts of moving them into the second spot but kept UMHB there. UMHB always attracts good players so, even though they are losing a lot, they should be fine. Sul Ross State is getting Annika Canaba back for a Super Senior year, which positions them well for a top 4 finish. I have ETBU worse than where they finished last season but I think they will be a better team this year so it won’t surprise me if they finishing higher. I see McMurry taking the last conference tournament spot although it’s a tossup with Hardin-Simmons. The big prediction here is a fall for LeTourneau. Outside of UMHB, they appear to be losing the most statistics. I just have to see what the new staff can do with their recruiting and development but I fear a drop for the program with a bounce back next year. Howard Payne isn’t sitting too bad but the rest of the conference is just too good so I have them in the last spot. I don’t think anyone (especially at home) will be an easy win this year.

Next up is the NWC and here was how they finished last year (with points loss):

  1. Whitworth 5.6%

  2. Pacific Lutheran 42%

  3. Puget Sound 47.2%

  4. George Fox 4.0%

  5. Pacific 30.7%

  6. Willamette 16.1%

  7. Lewis & Clark 45.5%

  8. Whitman 10.7%

  9. Linfield 9.5%

Here were the 2021 predictions:

  1. Whitworth

  2. Pacific Lutheran

  3. Pacific

  4. Puget Sound

  5. Lewis & Clark

  6. Willamette

  7. George Fox

  8. Whitman

  9. Linfield

I got the top two correct and five of the top six. Lewis & Clark fell off a couple of places and George Fox had a nice season finishing 4th. Honestly, if I had swapped those two teams, I would have been really close top to bottom. Looking back at my write-up, I thought GFU was in for a mini-rebuilding year but that didn’t happen in part because they had a great recruiting class.

NWC 2022 Predicted Order of Finish

  1. Whitworth

  2. Pacific Lutheran

  3. George Fox

  4. Pacific

  5. Puget Sound

  6. Willamette

  7. Whitman

  8. Lewis & Clark

  9. Linfield

I think Whitworth is the runaway winner in this conference. Maddie Lee is back for her Super Senior season and this team was really good last year and should only be better this one. Did I mention they went undefeated in conference last season? If you follow this conference then you know Pac Lu (only I call them that evidently), will finish second because Whitworth and Pac Lu always finish either first or second. It’s just a lot of statistics loss for them but then Puget Sound also has some serious losses to overcome, too. If there is one thing I’ve learned from doing these predictions, it’s that you stick with history despite what you think may occur so Pac Lu gets the second spot. I’m trusting their recruiting, which is always good. Things get really difficult at this point but let me make amends to GFU for my doubt last year and put them 3rd. They return pretty much everyone and those good first-years and sophomores should only get better. I’m putting Pacific fourth but this was a coin flip with Puget Sound. I like that Pacific has a JV program that they can pull from in addition to their normal recruiting. I think Puget Sound recruits better (usually) so I have some confidence they can overcome the largest points loss in the conference but it just feels right to have them 5th. I do think 3 through 6 is kind of wide open, which brings me to Willamette. They would be may dark horse pick so don’t be surprised if they finish higher than where I have them here. Another dark horse could be Whitman who always puts up a fight regardless of who they play and they should be returning most of their team. Lewis & Clark and Linfield complete my ordering. I will be interesting to see if Linfield can continue getting better and a finish in the 8th or even 7th spot won’t be too surprising to me.

I’m starting to realize that having three lists of the same teams for each conference may be confusing. I thought about redoing my organization but if this helps you forget my predictions then I’m happy with my formatting.

Next up is the SCAC and here was their 2021 order of finish with their points loss:

  1. Trinity 50.1%

  2. Colorado College 47.3%

  3. Southwestern 19.6%

  4. TLU 41.7%

  5. Austin College 5.5%

  6. St Thomas 24.6%

  7. Dallas 51.4%

  8. Schreiner 7.6%

  9. Centenary 47.4%

Did you know that the SCAC is the only conference where the conference tournament rotates between schools? The NWC doesn’t have a tournament while the other two give the top seeds hosting duties (Ha! Made you say “duties”. Yes, I have the mind of a 12-year-old.) More on this later (not my mind…the tournament location). In 2021, Trinity went undefeated in conference play and made a fine run at the NCAA championship.

Here were my predictions prior to the 2021 season:

  1. Trinity

  2. Colorado College

  3. Southwestern

  4. St Thomas

  5. Austin College

  6. TLU

  7. Schreiner

  8. Dallas

  9. Centenary

Okay! Getting better, right!?! Top three were correct (although it’s always these three in some order every year). I had St Thomas a little higher but they swapped with TLU, who were very good last season. Schreiner and Dallas swapped spots but other than that I had it right.

SCAC 2022 Predicted Order of Finish

  1. Southwestern

  2. Trinity

  3. Colorado College

  4. Austin College

  5. St Thomas

  6. TLU

  7. Schreiner

  8. Centenary

  9. Dallas

Remember how I foreshadowed the conference tournament location earlier? It will be at Colorado College this season and that is one of the best home court advantages any school in the nation holds. Six thousand feet high makes things difficult for visiting teams so expect the Trinity budget to include a lot of oxygen canisters and maybe even an altitude chamber or two. In all seriousness, if Colorado College doesn’t win the regular season, then securing the top spot will be ultra-important in avoiding them until the finals. I’ve got Southwestern taking the top spot but I’m not overly confident with this selection. I just can’t see past those points loss for the Tigers (both Trinity and CC), but this is no slam dunk for my Pirates. Right now, I don’t see a lot separating the next three teams so I’m basing my ordering on the points loss. Austin College is in the best position returning while TLU is losing some good talent. This could be St Thomas’ first year as a full DIII member so extra incentive for the team as they will probably be eligible for the NCAA Tournament. I also see the next three schools as being pretty close to each other and, again, I’m using points loss to break the ties here. What this all means is that there can certainly be movement in all three tiers of the conference depending on the recruiting classes and any secret Super Seniors out there.

We conclude with the SCIAC and their 2021 order of finish with points loss:

  1. CMS 17.5%

  2. Pomona-Pitzer 11.3%

  3. Chapman 53.4%

  4. Cal Lutheran 18.5%

  5. Whittier 46.7%

  6. Caltech 34.7%

  7. La Verne 0.0%

  8. Occidental 21.9%

  9. Redlands 42.4%

Here were my 2021 predictions, but we have to remember that I actually pulled names out of a hat based on tiers because they hadn’t played at all for almost 2-years prior to last season:

  1. CMS

  2. Chapman

  3. Cal Lutheran

  4. Whittier

  5. La Verne

  6. Pomona-Pitzer

  7. Redlands

  8. Occidental

  9. Caltech

Not much to say about all of that. When I did my predictions, I split the nine teams into three tiers (based on recent history). I then randomly selected the teams inside each tier. I guess what was interesting was that Pomona-Pitzer and Caltech each jumped a tier last year. That meant Cal Lu and La Verne dropped down a tier.

SCIAC 2022 Predicted Order of Finish

  1. CMS

  2. Pomona-Pitzer

  3. Cal Lutheran

  4. La Verne

  5. Chapman

  6. Whittier

  7. Occidental

  8. Caltech

  9. Redlands

I feel like there are three tiers, again, in the SCIAC this year. The first tier is just CMS. Like Whitworth in the NWC, I believe CMS runs away with this conference title. The second tier is Pomona-Pitzer, Cal Lu and La Verne and I really have no clue the order of finish with these three teams. Maci Haddad coming back for Cal Lu is huge. La Verne doesn’t lose anyone and has a really nice impactful recruit coming in. Pomona-Pitzer also keeps most of their talent and they’ve already proved they can win big matches in conference. The remaining teams are in that third tier and trying to figure out their order is equally tough. Oxy could jump to the top of that tier but I just didn’t have the guts to put them there. Caltech has done really well the last two seasons but replacing any kind of points loss is especially tough for them due to their academic requirements. I think Chapman and Whittier are just unknowns right now but they get the higher placement just based on recent history and nothing else.

BONUS

Our Region will regionally rank 7 teams this season so here is my best guess as to that order:

  1. CMS

  2. Whitworth

  3. Southwestern

  4. Trinity

  5. Colorado College

  6. UT-Dallas

  7. Pomona-Pitzer

I think CMS has a really good chance at the national championship this year. For Whitworth, it all comes down to how well they perform in their first two tournaments. If they stumble at all then they may not be regionally ranked. I think they have the class to start well against some very good out-of-region teams, but we shall see. As for the others, it really could be in any order. I like all of these teams and it would be tougher to list the 8th team as opposed to these seven. Of course, there are a lot of unknowns and future injuries and players that just didn’t put the time in this summer that could change all of this.

To sum it all up, this was all just filler to get us one day closer to the matches! I hope someone out there was entertained. I’ll be doing a preseason All-Region team again this year so look for that in the next week. We’ll also have the conference previews and I’m sure I’ll think of one or two other article ideas. One negative (for you…definitely not me) is that second trip I’m taking this month. I know I can get any drug known to man on the beaches of Jamaica, but the question is whether I’ll be able to get Wi-Fi. I really only require the latter although some of you may be thinking I’ve already partaken of the former prior to writing these previews.

Tracking the conference replies here:

  1. ASC loves me the most (They release their conference preview on August 16th.)

  2. SCAC responded a little bit later. (They are checking for me on the release date.)

  3. NWC and SCIAC don’t love me at all but I’ll update this when I hear when they will release their conference previews.

 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page