Championship Analysis

Championship time! Last year I reached out to coaches for their analysis of the championship and I did the same yesterday. What follows are their thoughts on the upcoming match. I will chime in to play the part of the court jester. If any coach wants to add their thoughts after this is published, just email me and I’ll do what I can. All coaches were granted anonymity.

Coach #1

Whitewater needs to get Juniata out of system, which means winning the serving game. This will help take away the quick tempo middle attack which allows the defense (aka Monster Block – look up their block/set #s for just regionals alone) to focus on shutting down the pins. Hope did this especially well in set 1 yesterday. Hope also was so successful at getting positive block touches against the Juniata tempo sets through the middle. Offensively, especially out of system, Whitewater needs to blast/tool Juniata’s block- this is where they’re vulnerable (sometimes). So many teams swing deep/hard against them (Hope certainly tried) and it’s too easy for Juniata to dig since their defense sits so deep. If Kennedy Christy gets hot again, the Whitewater OHs should tip over the block to take her out of the transition offense.

Juniata needs to swing high and cover. If they’re in-system, I don’t think tomorrow will be close. If Juniata’s serve and pass is just 10% better than it has been the last two matches then it also won’t be close.  

Hoping for another 5-setter though!

(My thoughts – First off, Whitewater is currently averaging 3.79 Blocks/Set in the tournament compared to Juniata’s 1.44. That is a “monster block”! Notice the difference in the observations. A lot on what UWW needs to do and a little on Juniata. Despite Juniata not looking perfect, the respect is there with this coach basically just saying play.)

Coach #2

Whitewater – Serve KSRH tough to her left – most players are better passing on their left than their right, but she plays in left back and makes so many defensive moves to her right, that I think she is better that way.  I think they need to take line away from Podolan and dig her cross court with two defenders by shifting the zone 6 defender towards 1.  She has great vision and will tool any block that is late getting to the line, but that vision also means she sees the line block early and will swing cross, where I do not think she brings quite as much heat.  They need to side out on first ball as much as possible – JC is deadly with the middle in transition.  They also need to pass in play – limit Juniata’s aces.  Juniata is super aggressive from the service line, and that is how they generate so many point scoring runs.  Tip short over Foley – Schubert plays deep behind her expecting teams to swing over her – take the easy point.  Try to make Muth beat them – I thought Hope did a great job of putting a lot of Juniata’s success on Muth’s shoulders, and she responded.  Can she do it two nights in a row?  I still think that is their best shot.  They also need to terminate a bit more than they did against Hopkins – you will not beat Juniata averaging 12 kills/set (excluding the 5^th set).  Attack the DS’s and tool the block, especially the seam when Coley is blocking.

Juniata – This will sound very simple, but play the way they have for the past 2+ years.  I think the biggest thing that has made them look human the past two nights was worrying too much about the other teams rather than being the consistent, system-oriented team that has allowed them to win the past two championships.  They definitely need to serve receive better than they have at the beginning of the past two matches, and they need to get hot from the service line.  They won’t dial back the aggressiveness, and they are due for a big night from behind the line, so I think their serving effectiveness, specifically with aces, will be a huge factor.  They need to run their middles (which they always do) to limit UWW’s pin blocking ability and keep the Warhawks middles at home a split second longer when they do set them.  They need to set Kennedy Christy more and use her more in the back row, especially if UWW is blocking the pins well.  In my opinion, Christy is the best all-around player in the country, and I am always a little surprised that they keep her in the O2 spot – that limits either her swings or Coley’s swings (or both).  However, JC runs through the middle, always has and most likely always will, so expect a heavy dose of Coley.

This should be another fun match, and I am excited to see how the emotional game goes.  Whitewater has seemed to thrive under the bright lights this week, while Juniata has looked like just maybe the pressure is starting to build.

(My thoughts – I love me some Kennedy Christy as loyal readers know. She was a big reason for Juniata coming back against Hope on Thursday. She was not good early but was amazing after the initial hiccup. Echoing the UWW thoughts, their JHU match has me worried. They had two horrible sets and that can’t happen against Juniata. Here is another coach that believes Juniata just being Juniata is enough for another ring.)

Coach #3

I would love to help you but it’s against policy.

(My thoughts – Funny guy.)

Coach #4

Juniata:  Find a new script.  They can’t afford a slow start.  Against ULV and Hope, they got away with it, but with Whitewater riding high emotions, I just don’t think they can afford to play from behind. [Paraphrasing here…Watch out if Juniata wins the first set. It could be a sweep.] They also need to receive the ball a little better so the offense can stay balanced. If Hernandez has more than 6 digs in the first set, I think it’s a good sign.  Pretty sure Whitewater will swing away from her, but if she finds a way to touch the ball, I think that’s the spark JC will need (despite their business-like demeanor).  Can they keep serving tough?  Put pressure on the Whitewater front row outside hitters to pass perfect.  I also feel if the blocking numbers stay close, it’s a huge bonus.  One match to go………….this one has more pressure than any other.  Can they keep that out of their minds?  Stay away from the “what if this is the one we finally lose” thoughts.

Whitewater:  I feel like their coaches are phenomenal when they have time to prepare.  I see some real patterns with the JC hitters, so can they take that away?  Force their hitters in to their secondary swings.  If they are in the positive in aces given vs aces taken, that will be a huge sign for the upset.  Essentially, ace more than you get aced.  Tremendous block.  But don’t get tooled.  Get playable touches where you can create opportunities to swing in transition.  Play “keep away” from Rousette-Hernandez.  I would overload when Foley is blocking.  Run the 3 and dare her to help block, and if she does, you can open up the line swing on the OH.  Outscore JC when Coley is out.  Think runs of points when she’s on the bench.  Use the emotions to be agitators.  JC normally doesn’t get phased, but what I said earlier is true:  This match has all the pressure to finish.  Make them think about the “what if”.

(My thoughts – There’s almost a check list here that maybe I need to track during the match:

• Slow start (again) for Juniata?

• KSRH number of digs first set?

• JC serving UWW front row outsides?

• Who has the blocking advantage?

• Who has the ace advantage?

I think the blocking difference has to go to Whitewater. If it goes to Juniata then there is no point checking anything else. Aces is interesting. Huge advantage for UWW to stay close here. Still, that’s not a death sentence for JC if it happens. I didn’t track the Emory/UWW match as we hadn’t arrived, yet, but Johns Hopkins really didn’t target a specific person serving. They went after the libero most of all when I was looking at it. It will be interesting to see who JC goes after.)

Coach #5

Whitewater needs to continue to block and slow down the Juniata offense. Juniata needs to do what they do best and push the middles offensively. Juniata has struggled a bit in the Elite 8 but that’s due to the best teams being there. The best coaches being there. They are doing a great job in their defensive placement against JC.

(My thoughts – Blocking versus the middle attack is a common thread with all of the coaches.)

Bonus

Since we had a coach mention the blocking statistics, I thought it would be interesting to see these two teams side-by-side.

Opponent hitting percentage is virtually identical. The only stat in Whitewater’s favor is Blocks/Set but by a large margin. The Digs/Set is interesting. Even if you added 2 digs a set due to the performance of the block, it’s still a low number.

Thanks to the coaches that responded! I’m sure we’ll all be entertained!