C2C Statistics Loss (2025)

This is our last conference specific look at statistics loss. Our next, and last, in this series will look at teams nationally. So, a lot of work ahead of me but today our focus is on the C2C Conference as Region X UC Santa Cruz makes their home there. All of the schools we will look at today have been tracked in the past with the exception of Warren Wilson.

As a reminder, “statistics loss” or “statistics lost” are the statistics accumulated the previous season by seniors. These are the stats that will be lost to the team in 2025 due to their graduation. I like to look at this data as it gives us an indication as to how the team should fare in the upcoming season. Of course, with any rule or theory, we have caveats. Caveats like some seniors are seniors academically but may have another year of eligibility. This would be a caveat that helps the team. Caveats that hurt the team further are players that leave due to injury or homesickness or financial reasons. These statistics also don’t account for the recruits coming in or that prized DI transfer. This is simply a baseline of where the team is probably going to be without those caveats running amok. From doing this for a number of years, we’ve learned that teams are much better at replacing assists and digs. Where teams can struggle is with Points Lost and getting to 45% or higher is a red flag. Points are kills plus aces plus blocks.

Here is the C2C table that shows not only the Points Lost but also assists and digs lost to graduation. I also include the Points/Set number from last season. Remember that 18+ is elite, 17+ typically gets you into the NCAA Tournament, 16+ is good and then we go down from there. Below the table, I’ll give out some general thoughts and then dive into each team.

Just five teams in the C2C Mount Mary moves to the NAIA this season. Two other teams will find their way to the conference (and DIII) in JWU (NC) and Regent. Just a quick glance at the table and I’m ready to declare Chris Newport your 2025 C2C Champions! You really had a great season and good luck in the tournament! It won’t be that easy for the Captains but their main competition in the conference are all above the 40% mark in Points Lost with Mary Washington taking a second consecutive season hit by reaching the 60% mark! They dropped down from 30 wins in 2023 down to 14 wins last season, so…yikes! I’m sure UCSC and Salisbury will make a run at it so don’t engrave the trophy just yet. Let’s take a look at each team.

Mary Washington lost 69.4% of their points in 2023 and are now following it up with a 64.8% drop. That’s a tough one-two punch. They also lose their setter and libero and have to work from a 14.86 Points/Set number. There will be a lot of opportunity for the younger players to step up and help out Avery Gallahue and Libby Porter but this looks a bit bleak to me. Still, this is a quality program that always puts a quality product on the floor so expect some outstanding first-years to contribute, as well.

UC Santa Cruz will look to rising seniors Heidi Collins, Drew Bryant and Olly Gordon to continue to improve and tack on the points in 2025. Kate Lau will also be there to help out but there will be opportunities here, as well. The team did have 7 first-years in 2024 so it will be interesting to see if any of them can fill in for the offense lost to graduation. The Slugs get a new coach in Chad Koenegstein (formally an assistant at Colorado College) so we’ll get to see his stamp put on the program. Since 2016, this program has never been over the 45% mark in Points Lost so this will be new territory in that regard, too.

Salisbury comes in just under the 45% mark and they are always a tough team to play. They did reach 50.5% in 2022 but came back with an almost identical record in 2023 so this may be a program that isn’t impacted by points lost as much as others. Of course, with Super Seniors raiding and devouring the countryside these last 4-years, it was hard to really know the impact of points lost. Still, this is a program to watch to see if they do take a step back in 2025. As long as rising senior Gwen Eustace (406.5 Points) returns, they probably will be just fine.

Warren Wilson played just 15 matches last year due to the destruction of Hurricane Helene, which caused widespread damage to the campus. Sometimes, and this is rare, volleyball isn’t the most important thing going on in life. Let’s hope that the school and the program can come back strong in 2025.

Christopher Newport has already been awarded the trophy by me but they do have to replace libero Noelle Starr, 5-1 setter Alyssa Vitale and their 2^nd most productive hitter in Macy Burk. Still, they have a lot returning and definitely look like they are the best team offensively going into the new season. They also don’t ever seem to have an issue recruiting and look to have some bench players ready to step up. Expect another great season from this program and another trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Top to bottom, there are certainly some unknowns. I’d probably have CNU, Salisbury and UCSC as the top three in conference right now. All three had good Points/Set numbers and the ability to replace their losses. The wildcard will be Mary Washington and how they handle their losses. Warren Wilson should be the fifth team but will also be a program everyone pulls for in 2025.

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