Bubble Teams – Looking Forward

I was skipping through channels the other day when I found a show talking about the college football landscape and the chances teams will make the 4 team playoff. At one point, a commentator said if Team X runs the table then they are in the playoff and someone else said why are we talking about that because a lot of other things have to happen. And I thought why are you doing the show then? Just wait until the end of the season for everything to unfold. But what fun is that! And that leads me into this post that attempts to discuss some of the scenarios that can unfold as we have two weekends until selection Monday.

I primarily want to focus on the bubble teams and my assumption is that the following teams have a ticket to the tournament:

• Colorado College

• Claremont Mudd-Scripps

• Southwestern

• Trinity

• Pacific Lutheran (Pool A bid)

At this point, my loyal readers are thinking that I really hate Whittier for not including the #3 West RAC ranked team. I hope you know that’s not true and that I love the Poets and applaud their great season.

Absent of a huge SCAC upset, one of the above teams will get a Pool A bid and two others will get Pool C (at-large) bids. Let’s assume the West will get 4 Pool C bids total so I just used up half of them. I don’t see anyone else from the NWC getting a bid so that wraps up the NWC and SCAC for the purposes of this post.

I always start with the ASC so let’s change things up and go with the SCIAC first. There are five teams (realistically) fighting for the 4 SCIAC tournament spots. CMS has the #1 seed locked up, but here are the standings, the teams left to play and the “expected” outcome:

1. CMS 13-1; @Whittier (Win); Cal Lutheran (Win)

2. Whittier 10-4; CMS (Loss); @La Verne (Loss)

3. La Verne 10-4; @Oxy (Win); Whittier (Win)

4. Cal Lutheran 9-5; Caltech (Win); @CMS (Loss)

5. Chapman 8-6; @Pomona-Pitzer (Win); Oxy (Win)

By “expected” outcome I’m really giving the best record team and then the home team the benefit of the doubt. (It’s not who I think will win.) If these outcomes hold, then the final standings, after tiebreakers are applied, for the SCIAC will look like:

1. CMS 15-1

2. La Verne 12-4

3. Cal Lutheran 10-6

4. Chapman 10-6

5. Whittier 10-6

That’s right folks, if this scenario plays out then the #3 West RAC ranked team will not make the SCIAC tournament. (As to the tiebreaker, Cal Lu has a better head-to-head record when comparing all three teams. Chapman has a better set record when compared directly with Whittier.)

To be clear, a lot of results have to break exactly right, but all of the results are probably the odds on favorite to occur. The counterpoint is that La Verne has been up and down recently so wins at Occidental and home against Whittier will both be tough. Chapman is also very capable of losing to either away at Pomona-Pitzer or Occidental (at home). For those wondering, if La Verne spits the bit in the last two and ends up at 10-6, then we would have CMS, Whittier, La Verne and Cal Lutheran. Chapman would be out on tiebreakers.

All of this makes predicting the 8 West RAC ranked teams very difficult. To make things easier, let’s not say the 8 teams but let’s just assume we are only worried about the last 3 and let’s assume CMS wins the SCIAC tournament.

First off, let’s focus on Whittier:

• Whittier drops last two matches and doesn’t qualify for the SCIAC. Their ranked record would move to 5-5 and they would have 9 losses on the season. This would make them a bubble team.

• Whittier drops last two matches and makes the SCIAC. This probably means they get the 4^th seed and lose to CMS. Their ranked record would drop to 5-6 and they would have 10 losses. This would make them a bubble team.

• Whittier does anything else (and by else I mean either beats CMS and/or La Verne). In this case I think they earn a Pool C bid.

La Verne:

• La Verne drops last two matches and then loses their SCIAC match. Their ranked record drops to 3-7. This would make them a bubble team.

• La Verne wins one or both of their last matches then loses in SCIAC. I think they are a Pool C team if they win both.

• La Verne wins out but loses SCIAC finals. They are definitely a Pool C team.

Chapman:

• Chapman wins out, makes SCIAC and upsets CMS but lose in the finals (yeah, I know I said CMS wins the SCIAC). Their ranked record goes to 5-6 and they have 10 losses on the season. I just don’t think this would be enough. I think Chapman has to win the SCIAC.

Cal Lutheran

• See Chapman.

So, to summarize the SCIAC, assuming CMS wins the SCIAC tournament I only see Whittier and La Verne with chances at Pool C bids, but I also see very real scenarios where they become risky bubble teams. Just remember that the winner of the Whittier at La Verne match is probably a Pool C team so the third Pool C bid that I’m allocating to the West is now gone. (It’s also quite possible that both Pool C bids are gone if both teams make it to the SCIAC tournament. Whittier beating CMS this weekend and then losing to La Verne would be an example.)

There are three ASC teams that have a chance at a Pool C bid, but I believe that one of them will win the Pool A bid. The three teams are UMHB, UT-Dallas and UT-Tyler. Both UMHB and UTD play in a tournament hosted by Trinity this weekend where they will play Trinity, TLU and Schreiner. I don’t think either team will beat Trinity but I’ll consider it below. UTT goes to a different tournament and will play Millsaps, Centenary and Austin College. All teams they should beat, although Austin College could trip them up.

Now, the ASC tournament is set and it’s being hosted at UTD. If this tournament was hosted at UMHB, I would say this is a done deal and the Cru will get the Pool A bid and neither UTD nor UTT will get a Pool C bid. We’d be back to Whittier/La Verne getting the last bid and the West ending up with 8 teams and probably Claremont hosting. But it’s not so here are the options:

• UMHB wins the tournament against either UTD or UTT. See below…I think UTD would be done but UTT might still have a breath left.

• Either UTD or UTT wins the tournament. This would eliminate the other team from a Pool C bid and would leave just UMHB with a Pool C chance.

• If anyone else wins the ASC, then only UMHB would still have a chance at a Pool C bid.

For those wondering what I think the chances are for the ASC title, I would go UTD 45%, UMHB 45% and UTT 9.9%. I think home court is that important.

As I look at the teams, I think UTD has a real Pool C problem, even if they beat Trinity this week. Their record isn’t stellar, their SOS is just alright and their ranked wins are few. After going through this, I think UTD makes the tournament only with an ASC tournament win.

With regards to UTT, I think it will be tough to get past Whittier in the rankings but I see a different story with La Verne. If we assume UTT wins their matches this weekend (includes Austin College) and makes the ASC finals before losing to UMHB then they share some common opponents with La Verne (Austin College and UTD) and come out ahead. It’s possible that the only advantage La Verne would have over UTT would be the SOS criterion and that might not be enough if things break right for UTT.

UMHB is in a stronger position as they are ranked ahead of La Verne right now. A Trinity win this weekend and a finals loss probably keep them ahead of a faltering La Verne. A Trinity loss might still keep them ahead, but it’s hard to say. A Trinity win might also propel UMHB ahead of a faltering Whittier but a Trinity loss probably wouldn’t.

Even with so few matches left, things are still convoluted. I think the most likely scenario is that both Whittier and La Verne find a way into the SCIAC tournament. If UMHB wins the ASC then the West has 8 solid teams ready for the NCAA tournament. If UTD or UTT wins the ASC against UMHB then the NCAA can go with 9 teams from the West (extra airline trip) or snub either UMHB, Whittier or La Verne. (Mind you, I’m only including Whittier in the case where they lose out.) The one aspect I haven’t mentioned is the other regions and how qualified their teams are when compared against our bubble teams. That is really the key when seeing if the West gets 7, 8 or 9 teams into the tournament.