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At-Large Mock #2 (2023)

Writer: goldenstateservicesj
goldenstateservicesj
Nov 9, 2023
13 min read

We had a team targeted for their conference Automatic Qualifier (AQ) eliminated from contention in their tournament the other day. Pour one out for Westfield State whose season is done. Below are the current projections to win their conference’s AQ. I overrode the ASC winner (ETBU) with Mary Hardin-Baylor just because (means less now that ETBU is ranked 7th in their region). These teams will not be considered for an at-large bid because they don’t need one.

Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference Penn-State BehrendAmerican Rivers Conference DubuqueAmerican Southwest Conference Mary Hardin-Baylor*Atlantic East Conference MarymountCentennial Conference Johns HopkinsCUNY Athletic Conference HunterCoast-to-Coast Athletic Conference SalisburyCollege Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin North ParkCommonwealth Coast Conference WentworthEmpire 8 Athletic Conference St John FisherGreat Northeast Athletic Conference SimmonsHeartland Collegiate Athletic Conference Mt St JosephLandmark Conference JuniataLiberty League IthacaLittle East Conference UMass-DartmouthMassachusetts State College Athletic Conference Worcester StateMichigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association HopeMiddle Athletic Conference Commonwealth EasternMiddle Athletic Conference Freedom StevensMidwest Conference CornellMinnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference Gustavus AdolphusNew England Small College Athletic Conference WesleyanNew England Women’s and Men’s Athletic Conference SpringfieldNew Jersey Athletic Conference StocktonNorth Atlantic Conference Eastern NazareneNorth Coast Athletic Conference DePauwNorthern Athletics Collegiate Conference EdgewoodNorthwest Conference Pacific LutheranOhio Athletic Conference OtterbeinOld Dominion Athletic Conference Virginia WesleyanPresident’s Athletic Conference Bethany CollegeSkyline Conference ManhattanvilleSouthern Athletic Association BerrySouthern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference CMSSouthern Collegiate Athletic Conference TrinitySt Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference GreenvilleState University of New York Athletic Conference SUNY CortlandUnited East Conference GallaudetUniversity Athletic Association Emory Upper Midwest Athletic Conference NorthwesternUSA South Athletic Conference MeredithWisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference UW-Oshkosh

I believe that Covenant will be awarded the Pool B bid regardless of future results.

Here are the teams left and what order they are to be considered for each region. I have included their Record, SOS and Ranked Record.

Region I

  1. Middlebury (0.636/0.645/6-8)

  2. Tufts (0.609/0.608/6-7)

  3. Colby (0.680/0.587/7-6)

  4. Williams (0.652/0.604/5-7)

  5. Trinity (CT) (0.636/0.576/4-7)

  6. Bowdoin (0.591/0.578/4-6)

Region II

  1. MIT (0.867/0.586/9-4)

  2. Babson (0.815/0.598/8-4)

  3. Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4)

  4. Emerson (0.609/0.627/4-7)

  5. Smith (0.571/0.566/1-9)

  6. Clark (0.586/0.552/2-7)

Region III

  1. SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3)

  2. Rochester (0.667/0.557/2-6)

  3. William Smith (0.609/.561/0-7)

Region IV

  1. NYU (remembered them, this time) (0.867/0.656/16-4)

  2. Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7)

  3. Ramapo (0.958/0.527/4-1)

  4. William Paterson (0.828/0.501/1-4)

  5. Montclair State (0.552/0.576/0-11)

Region V

  1. Gettysburg (0.840/0.573/6-2)

  2. Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6)

  3. Swarthmore (0.625/0.591/4-6)

  4. Stevenson (Added them just in case) (0.778/0.583/3-4)

Region VI

  1. Mary Washington (0.900/0.595/7-3)

  2. Christopher Newport (0.645/0.634/3-11)

  3. Centre (0.714/0.590/1-7)

Region VII

  1. Calvin (0.769/0.592/4-4)

  2. Carnegie Mellon (0.741/0.620/5-6)

  3. Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5)

  4. Case Western Reserve (0.741/0.576/3-5)

  5. Mount Union (0.720/0.573/4-4)

  6. Ohio Northern (Added them just in case) (0.640/0.595/2-5)

Region VIII

  1. UW-Whitewater (0.857/0.666/7-4)

  2. WashU (0.759/0.653/7-7)

  3. Transylvania (0.793/0.615/6-6)

  4. UW-Stevens Point (0.710/0.633/5-6)

  5. UW-Platteville (Added just in case) (0.750/0.605/3-4)

  6. Millikin (Added just in case) (0.688/0.622/4-7)

  7. Carthage (Added just in case) (0.571/0.631/2-7)

Region IX

  1. St Olaf (0.704/0.548/6-2)

  2. Saint Benedict (0.654/0.595/3-6)

  3. Nebraska Wesleyan (0.741/0.502/2-2)

Region X

  1. La Verne (0.880/0.533/4-3)

  2. Colorado College (0.615/0.584/2-5)

  3. Pomona-Pitzer (0.593/0.559/4-7)

  4. Whittier (0.577/0.564/3-7)

  5. East Texas Baptist (0.875/0.517/1-2)

The first thing I’m going to do is award bids to the teams that just look like they should get one. So, congratulations MIT, Babson, NYU, Gettysburg, Mary Washington, Calvin, Carnegie Mellon, UW-Whitewater, WashU and Transylvania. I think UW-Stevens Point is a lock, but I’ll leave them out for now. That’s 10 spots gone of the 21 so just 11 to award.

Remember that the Selection Committee will now look at the highest ranked team from each region and choose who gets the next bid. Here are the 10 teams under consideration:

Middlebury (0.636/0.645/6-8) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7)

Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Christopher Newport (0.645/0.634/3-11) Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5) UW-Stevens Point (0.710/0.633/5-6) St Olaf (0.704/0.548/6-2) La Verne (0.880/0.533/4-3)

I find it the easiest just to work down the list and try to remember some of the decisions made because they will be needed later on. Now, I do use a scorecard for my comparison but will try to look deeper when teams are close. I do have Middlebury ahead of Coast Guard 2-1 with Ranked Results to go. Based on their RPIs and how close their Ranked Results are most likely to be, I’m taking Middlebury. The same thing occurs between Middlebury and New Paltz so edge to Middlebury. Middlebury takes down Kean 3-1 with Ranked Results to go despite the Kean head-to-head. Still cruising as they take down F&M. With Chris Newport they go down 1-0 with Ranked Results to go. SOS is too close to separate. Middlebury is 6-8 but those wins are going to be New England teams. CNU is 3-11, which is not good but I think those wins will be better. Let’s look. Middlebury’s wins are Cortland, Tufts, Bowdoin, Springfield, Babson and Trinity (CT). If you just look at the rankings there are some good wins here. They also have a bunch of losses to the same level of talent. CNU’s wins are Carnegie Mellon, Colorado College and Virginia Wesleyan. They have more losses but to (typically) better teams. This is close and I give the edge to Middlebury because I think that’s what the Selection Committee will do. I think Secondary Criteria (non-conference SOS) would favor CNU so they are my pick. I spot check CNU against the teams already mentioned and they are all really close but I’m sticking with CNU. If the Selection Committee doesn’t like their Ranked Record of 3-11 then things will go differently. Ohio Wesleyan is the same story but I’m sticking with CNU. UW-Stevens Point takes an easy win over CNU. Just eyeballing the three stats I’ve listed and knowing their ranked wins has me keeping UWSP. St Olaf has a win over UWSP but it’s not enough to win the comparison (3-2). La Verne are tied going to Ranked Results and ULV has a CMS win but I’m keeping UWSP. That’s a lot of work for just one selection but that’s how it goes. Think how much longer it would be with 10 people yelling at each other. We now replace UW-Stevens Point with UW-Platteville (who I think would be the next choice).

Middlebury (0.636/0.645/6-8) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7) Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Christopher Newport (0.645/0.634/3-11) Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5) UW-Platteville (0.750/0.605/3-4) St Olaf (0.704/0.548/6-2) La Verne (0.880/0.533/4-3)

One pick in and we are already past the published lists! I’m starting with CNU since they made it through to UWSP last time. UWP doesn’t have great ranked wins. Their best is UWSP but the others are Colorado College and Dubuque (who was removed this week). They do have a Common Opponent advantage so I think that’s a lot for CNU to overcome with just Ranked Results so I’m taking UWP. Eyeballing the teams I’ve gone through, only Middlebury has a claim but I think they’ll get in soon so I’ll stay with UWP. UWP dominates St Olaf but lose to La Verne. La Verne has Record and Ranked Results over SOS. La Verne ties Middlebury with Ranked Results to go. I think I’d take La Verne over CNU. That CMS win for La Verne really plays in my head. The Selection Committee may not agree. I’m going to take BOTH UWP and La Verne here to save a little time. New teams in are Millikin and Colorado College. (Note – I compared Millikin, Carthage and UW-Eau Claire and they finished in that order as I try to keep my Region VIII rankings honest.)

Middlebury (0.636/0.645/6-8) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7) Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Christopher Newport (0.645/0.634/3-11) Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5) Millikin (0.688/0.622/4-7) St Olaf (0.704/0.548/6-2) Colorado College (0.615/0.584/2-5)

Back to Christopher Newport and away we go. Millikin wins the comparison with CNU. Man, Region VIII is tough! Spot checking them against previous teams and they do alright so I’m keeping them. St Olaf has a 2-1 lead with Ranked Results to go. St Olaf’s wins are Otterbein, St Kate (St Catherine), Northwestern (!), Saint Ben and UWSP. I have to take Olaf here. Eyeballing the previous teams and Colorado College and I want to go St Olaf here, but there is a big problem and that’s Franklin & Marshall. They win this comparison with Record and SOS. Franklin & Marshall’s ranked wins are Whittier, Pomona-Pitzer and Montclair State. Not the greatest.

Here’s where I am. F&M doesn’t get in before a few other teams in this list but they get in before St Olaf who gets in before everyone else on this list. Since I’m making the decision, I’m taking Olaf. F&M is part of Region V and they have been really good at getting their teams in when they don’t belong so I fully expect (in real life) that both go here. If I’m a RAC Chair in any other region, I don’t allow this. This is my warning to them. Make F&M win more than just one comparison against one team. To Gabby (Region X) I say that I think Colorado College gets in before F&M so don’t let them in without Colorado College going, too. (Note – Things are going to change in the next 3 days.) St Olaf comes off and Saint Benedict comes in.

Middlebury (0.636/0.645/6-8) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7) Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Christopher Newport (0.645/0.634/3-11) Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5) Millikin (0.688/0.622/4-7) Saint Benedict (0.654/0.595/3-6) Colorado College (0.615/0.584/2-5)

Back to Millikin. St Ben’s wins are Eastern, WashU and St Kate. Millikin’s wins are Kean, Ithaca, Centre and Calvin. That’s pretty close and Millikin has a 2-1 advantage to this point so I’m keeping them. Millikin dominates Colorado College so they are the pick. In comes Carthage.

Middlebury (0.636/0.645/6-8) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7) Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Christopher Newport (0.645/0.634/3-11) Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5) Carthage (0.571/0.631/2-7) Saint Benedict (0.654/0.595/3-6) Colorado College (0.615/0.584/2-5)

Millikin was our 15th team. Just 6 spots left to go and we start with Christopher Newport. I’m taking CNU over Carthage as they have Record with SOS tied. I think I like St Ben’s Ranked Results better and that gives them a 2-1 advantage. Carthage has the advantage over St Ben so I’m in trouble here. I also need to thrown Middlebury in here because they were really close to CNU. I checked Franklin & Marshall and they come up short against these teams. I’m going to delay things here and take Middlebury because they do well against all of these teams. In comes Tufts.

Tufts (0.609/0.608/6-7) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7) Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Christopher Newport (0.645/0.634/3-11) Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5) Carthage (0.571/0.631/2-7) Saint Benedict (0.654/0.595/3-6) Colorado College (0.615/0.584/2-5)

Looking at Tufts ranked wins and they are Trinity (!), Trinity (CT) twice, Williams, Springfield (!) and Bowdoin. Regardless of what you think of Trinity and Springfield, they are both #1 ranked teams. Tufts beats F&M pretty handily, by the way. They also take down Coast Guard and New Paltz. They tie Kean but I give the edge to Tufts. CNU beats out Tufts easily (Record, SOS and Common Opponent). I think Tufts beats out Ohio Wesleyan, Carthage and Saint Benedict but lose to Colorado College. I checked Ohio Wesleyan again and their wins are Calvin and Otterbein (they will also pick up Mount Union next time). They are really close to CNU. I only have 5 spots but I’ve got 6 teams doing the Spiderman meme. What’s interesting here is that Region V dropped Stevenson but they beat out a number of teams here. I have to get through F&M and Swarthmore (just added) to get to them.

I’m taking Christopher Newport here. I double-checked them and they pretty much win against the other teams. In comes Centre.

Tufts (0.609/0.608/6-7) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7) Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Centre (0.714/0.590/1-7) Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5) Carthage (0.571/0.631/2-7) Saint Benedict (0.654/0.595/3-6) Colorado College (0.615/0.584/2-5)

I was surprised to see a ranked win for Centre. They just beat Christopher Newport! Ugh. These last few bids are tough. Still, it is what it is and that Ranked Record is a problem for Centre.

I just went through my mess of teams (leaving out Coast Guard, New Paltz, Kean, F&M and Centre). Tufts wins out except for Colorado College. To my shock, Colorado College wins out except for St Ben. Ohio Wesleyan only beats St Ben. Carthage beats out Ohio Wesleyan and St Ben. I’m going to take Tufts but I want to check Colorado College against the teams I left out. The think with Colorado College is that they have ranked wins over Trinity (ranked 1st) and Tufts (ranked 3rd). That’s more impressive than most despite all of the losses. They barely get by Coast Guard. They take down New Paltz. They tie Kean and I have no idea how that would get broken. They take down F&M. They lose to Centre! Crazy! Common Opponent and Record trump Ranked Results. I think humans would look at Colorado College and see them flawed. Their RPI just isn’t that good compared to the other teams, too. I’m just taking Tufts here and in comes Colby. (Spoiler – Colorado College will not make it in this mock. This is how close they were. This is why the RAC Chair gets the big bucks.)

Colby (0.680/0.587/7-6) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7) Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Centre (0.714/0.590/1-7) Ohio Wesleyan (0.741/0.568/2-5) Carthage (0.571/0.631/2-7) Saint Benedict (0.654/0.595/3-6) Colorado College (0.615/0.584/2-5)

I have three spots left and New England has 4 teams in already. I think that’s too many but that’s what the criteria says because the criteria is flawed towards New England teams. It will be interesting to see if the humans (RAC Chairs) fight this. Remember, I had Colby making it last week, too.

Colby has 7 ranked wins! They are Stevens, Bowdoin, Coast Guard, Tufts, Smith, Middlebury and Wheaton (just removed). Outside of their two regions, their best win is Stevens who is ranked 4th. Middlebury is 2nd in their region. Do you like over a team like Carthage who only have ranked wins over Gustavus Adolphus and Cornell. They are 2 and 3 in their region. I like Carthage in this case as I think both of those teams win out against the teams Colby played. Colby made use of their advantages and it will be interesting to see if the Selection Committee rewards them.

I’m going to cheat a bit here because this is taking a ton of time. I’m going Carthage and Ohio Wesleyan and we are down to one open spot. Region VIII probably brings in Eau Claire. Region VII brings in Case Western Reserve.

Colby (0.680/0.587/7-6) Coast Guard (0.704/0.543/5-4) SUNY New Paltz (0.741/0.522/4-3) Kean (0.667/0.590/5-7) Franklin & Marshall (0.750/0.591/3-6) Centre (0.714/0.590/1-7) Case Western Reserve (0.741/0.576/3-5) UW-Eau Claire (0.536/0.614/5-7) Saint Benedict (0.654/0.595/3-6) Colorado College (0.615/0.584/2-5)

One spot to go and I’ll start over to make sure everyone gets a shot. Colby wins over Coast Guard. Colby over New Paltz. Both came down to Ranked Results. Colby over Kean. Colby ties Franklin & Marshall but I’m going to give the edge to Colby. Colby and Centre tie but the edge goes to Colby. By edge, I’m looking at RPI and what their non-conference SOS might be. I’m taking CWRU over Colby. They have Record and I think the SOS would tie. I like CWRU’s ranked wins better, too. CWRU ties F&M but that NYU win for Case Western is just so strong. Edge to CWRU. They do well against the other teams mentioned previously. Looking at Eau Claire and they are in play here. I think I still take CWRU in part because Region VIII won’t get this many teams in. St Ben is a tie but again the edge goes to CWRU. CWRU also takes care of Colorado College so they are the last pick.

Here are your mocked Pool C (At-Large) teams:

  1. MIT

  2. Babson

  3. NYU

  4. Gettysburg

  5. Mary Washington

  6. Calvin

  7. Carnegie Mellon

  8. UW-Whitewater

  9. WashU

  10. Transylvania

  11. UW-Stevens Point

  12. UW-Platteville

  13. La Verne

  14. St Olaf

  15. Millikin

  16. Middlebury

  17. Christopher Newport

  18. Tufts

  19. Carthage

  20. Ohio Wesleyan

  21. Case Western Reserve

Some thoughts…

  • St Benedict, Stevenson and Colby made it last time but not this time.

  • Instead, we got St Olaf, Carthage and Tufts.

  • Transylvania also made it but they had a Pool A bid last time (replacing Mt St Joseph who have the Pool A bid this time).

  • I think Stevenson may be the better hope for Region V than either Franklin & Marshall and Swarthmore. Stevenson was dropped from the rankings this week.

  • We have some teams, like Colorado College and Franklin & Marshall that do well against some teams but not all. Other teams do well overall or are close. No idea how the Selection Committee will deal with this.

  • Unlike last week, Colorado College was in play as opposed to ETBU who was considered last week.

  • Ohio Wesleyan did delay another team from getting out in Region VII and may have cost Mount Union a spot.

  • In neither mock was Mount Union ever considered. I think they get selected if they are considered. They are (0.720/0.573/4-4) with wins over Carnegie Mellon and Johns Hopkins. I think Region VII is the wildcard for selection and a lot depends on how they rank their teams. (Note – I double-checked their work and they did it by the book.)

  • Case Western and Mount Union are tied with Mount Union having a head-to-head. They gave the Ranked Results to CWRU to break the tie. CWRU has wins over NYU, Rochester and Otterbein. Mount Union has wins over Carnegie Mellon, Salisbury, Case Western and Johns Hopkins. Which do you like better? That decision (in this case) was the difference in which team got a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

  • I don’t think New England gets five teams in but four look to be a lock.

  • I don’t think the WIAC get five teams in unless there is an upset in the final. Four looks likely but the Selection Committee, in the past, hasn’t done the WIAC any favors.

  • I only have one New York team getting in (NYU). I feel like another will get in because the Selection Committee typically does that if it’s close. Kean?

  • Region V will also be a wildcard. I can see Franklin & Marshall, Swarthmore and Stevenson all getting in based on past performances from their RAC.

I think if you add in all the teams that I think might get in, we’d be at 28 bids! It’s possible New England only gets 3 bids. It is very possible Region VIII doesn’t get in Millikin and Carthage. Christopher Newport has some warts (bad losses) so they are risky. I was surprised St Olaf made it in pretty easily. Nice Ranked Results.

A lot is going to depend on what the Selection Committee favors. Do they like Ranked Results or SOS (those are usually the choices)? How will they value those ranked wins from the New England teams? That question alone is probably the difference between 3 spots or 5 spots for them.

Again, I hope you see how important the regional rankings are and how they can block potentially better teams from getting a spot. This is a tough job but an important one. One last thing. Do I think we have the 21-best teams here? Heck no! If the selection criteria was just whatever I decided, I lean heavily into Region VIII and trim down the New England Regions. You have to earn a bid and one region did that and the other (two) didn’t. I’m fine only giving NYU a bid out of the New York regions. Mount Union would also be in and I’d probably get at least one Region V team in. (Note that I was pretty critical of Franklin & Marshall here but I’ve seen them play and they are a good team. I’d probably have them in but the criteria, in my mind, doesn’t like them.)

 
 
 

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