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At-Large Mock #1 (2023)
(Update: I forgot NYU!?! I have Emory winning the UAA and NYU would be one of the first teams to get an at-large bid. Sorry.)
(Update: Looks like I have Virginia Wesleyan twice. Now I have space for NYU!)
We have all of the regional ranking data we need and with help from “Ned” and his QWI files, we KNOW who is going to win each conference so it seems like we can jump ahead 10 days and figure out who is in the NCAA Tournament this year. Let’s have a look at the conference champions first. (Please note that these teams mostly come from QWI but I have altered some because I’m smarter than QWI.)
Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference Penn-State BehrendAmerican Rivers Conference DubuqueAmerican Southwest Conference Mary Hardin-Baylor*Atlantic East Conference MarymountCentennial Conference Johns Hopkins*CUNY Athletic Conference HunterCoast-to-Coast Athletic Conference SalisburyCollege Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin North ParkCommonwealth Coast Conference WentworthEmpire 8 Athletic Conference St John FisherGreat Northeast Athletic Conference SimmonsHeartland Collegiate Athletic Conference TransylvaniaLandmark Conference JuniataLiberty League IthacaLittle East Conference Plymouth StateMassachusetts State College Athletic Conference Westfield State*Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association HopeMiddle Athletic Conference Commonwealth EasternMiddle Athletic Conference Freedom StevensMidwest Conference CornellMinnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference Gustavus AdolphusNew England Small College Athletic Conference WesleyanNew England Women’s and Men’s Athletic Conference SpringfieldNew Jersey Athletic Conference StocktonNorth Atlantic Conference Eastern NazareneNorth Coast Athletic Conference DePauwNorthern Athletics Collegiate Conference EdgewoodNorthwest Conference Pacific LutheranOhio Athletic Conference OtterbeinOld Dominion Athletic Conference Virginia WesleyanPresident’s Athletic Conference Bethany CollegeSkyline Conference ManhattanvilleSouthern Athletic Association BerrySouthern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference CMSSouthern Collegiate Athletic Conference TrinitySt Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference GreenvilleState University of New York Athletic Conference SUNY CortlandUnited East Conference GallaudetUniversity Athletic Association Emory Upper Midwest Athletic Conference NorthwesternUSA South Athletic Conference MeredithWisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference UW-Oshkosh
Pool B (Independent) Bid Covenant
* Teams I selected over what QWI had listed.
That’s 42 teams that are getting the Automatic Qualifier (AQ) or the Pool A Bid. We have one independent team getting the Pool B bid. That leaves 21 at-large or Pool C bids to give out and I’m the man that’s going to do it.
As a reminder, the teams listed above will obviously be crossed off from the regional rankings and not considered for an at-large bid because they don’t need one. Seems obvious, but if you are wondering why your team didn’t get an at-large, first check the list above.
I want to save time, especially here at the start, so I’m going to look through the regional rankings for teams that will obviously get an at-large bid. I will then list the teams left for each region that have yet to get a bid.
From Region II, MIT and Babson. From Region V, Gettysburg. From Region VI, Mary Washington. From Region VII, Calvin and Carnegie Mellon. From Region VIII, UW-Whitewater and WashU.
Region I
Middlebury
Colby
Tufts
Williams
Trinity (Connecticut)
Bowdoin
Region II
Coast Guard
Emerson
Smith
Wheaton
Region III
SUNY New Paltz
Rochester
William Smith
Region IV
Kean
Ramapo
William Paterson
Montclair State
Region V
Stevenson
Franklin & Marshall
Region VI
Christopher Newport
Centre
Region VII
Ohio Wesleyan
Case Western Reserve
Ohio Northern
Region VIII
Mount St Joseph
UW-Stevens Point
UW-Platteville*
Millikin*
Carthage*
* Added by me as I think we will need them later
Region IX
Saint Benedict
St Olaf
St Catherine
Region X
La Verne
East Texas Baptist
Colorado College
Pomona-Pitzer
Whittier
That’s 8 teams already off the board and now only 13 spots available for the rest. Some of those schools may have surprised you. Maybe they are not ranked. Maybe you’ve never heard of them. Looking at their criteria, however, they should go off the board early. Why did I remove two New England teams when I complain about them so often? Because the New England regions typically get 3 teams because they have an advantage at constructing the selection criteria. Both MIT and Babson have good records, good Strength of Schedule (SOS) and great Ranked Records. They will be getting in.
From here, we only have to consider the top team from each region. So, starting round 9, we have Middlebury, Coast Guard, New Paltz, Kean, Stevenson, Chris Newport, Ohio Wesleyan, Mount St Joseph, Saint Benedict and La Verne. Those are the only schools that can get a bid this round. That’s why it’s important to be ranked highly in the regional rankings. Here are their bona fides (Record, SOS, Ranked Record):
Middlebury: 0.667/0.643/5-7 Coast Guard: 0.708/0.544/5-4 New Paltz: 0.750/0.522/2-3 Kean: 0.615/0.604/4-7 Stevenson: 0.760/0.593/4-4 Chris Newport: 0.679/0.634/3-9 Ohio Wesleyan: 0.800/0.551/3-3 Mount St Joseph: 0.952/0.556/4-1 Saint Benedict: 0.739/0.576/3-3 La Verne: 0.870/0.535/3-3
Scanning that list, you can see that Mount St Joseph will win every Record comparison while Middlebury will win every SOS comparison. Those are big advantages in national selection. The other two criteria are head-to-head and common opponent so they need to be factored in, too. As I start to do random comparisons, I’m getting the feeling that both Mount St Joseph and Middlebury are going to be in the middle of everything and win a number of comparisons. I’ve decided to save a little more time and give them both bids. Yes, that’s three New England bids but, again, unless there are a number of RAC Chairs willing to put up a fight, I think it’s going to happen. That will bring in two new teams to replace them (Colby and UW-Stevens Point).
Colby: 0.708/0.585/6-5 Coast Guard: 0.708/0.544/5-4 New Paltz: 0.750/0.522/2-3 Kean: 0.615/0.604/4-7 Stevenson: 0.760/0.593/4-4 Chris Newport: 0.679/0.634/3-9 Ohio Wesleyan: 0.800/0.551/3-3 UW-Stevens Point: 0.750/0.637/4-5 Saint Benedict: 0.739/0.576/3-3 La Verne: 0.870/0.535/3-3
La Verne now has the best Record of the group while UW-Stevens Point has the best SOS. Colby looks like they need to be selected ahead of Coast Guard so I will table them for a bit. I also think New Paltz might be behind both so they get tabled. Kean loses common opponent to Coast Guard so that hurts them although they are about equal with Colby. I believe Stevenson wins over Colby. Chris Newport probably wins the comparison with Stevenson although it’s mixed against the other teams mentioned. They are a bit of a problem because of their 3-9 Ranked Record. Their wins are over Carnegie Mellon, Colorado College and Virginia Wesleyan (split with them). That’s fine but not outstanding. Still, I take that over the New England teams that don’t leave their region. Ohio Wesleyan Ranked Record is 3-3 with wins over Calvin, Albion (will go away) and Otterbein. I probably take them over Chris Newport. UW-Stevens Point has a win over Chris Newport and a common opponent advantage over Ohio Wesleyan that tips the scales in their favor. Saint Benedict is very close to Ohio Wesleyan as is La Verne. La Verne’s three ranked wins are CMS, Saint Catherine and TLU (goes away). (Note – When I say a win goes away it’s because they are no longer ranked this week. Ranked Record is always about who was ranked the week before except for the final rankings used for selections, which use past week and current week.) As I continue with UWSP, it’s clear they are the choice here. I am also going to take (in order to save some time) Ohio Wesleyan, Saint Benedict and La Verne. They were all really close to each other when I did the comparisons, but I’m telling you right now this ordering is going to be tough if it stays this way.
That’s 14 bids with just 7 left to be awarded. New teams coming in are Case Western Reserve, UW-Platteville (best guess that they may be next), St Olaf and East Texas Baptist.
Colby: 0.708/0.585/6-5 Coast Guard: 0.708/0.544/5-4 New Paltz: 0.750/0.522/2-3 Kean: 0.615/0.604/4-7 Stevenson: 0.760/0.593/4-4 Chris Newport: 0.679/0.634/3-9 Case Western Reserve: 0.720/0.576/4-5 UW-Platteville: 0.731/0.604/4-5 St Olaf: 0.680/0.534/4-3 East Texas Baptist: 0.864/0.528/1-2
Since this is a Region X website, let’s talk about ETBU for a second. They have the best record of the group but the second worse SOS. Their one ranked win is Centre who is ranked 7th in their region and has no ranked wins (not sure how they are still ranked). They will lose every SOS and Ranked Record comparison. Their only hope is a common opponent advantage but then your battle is a team with common opponent and record versus one with SOS and Ranked Record. As luck would have it, they do have a common opponent advantage over UW-Platteville. Do you like the team with an RPI of 0.608 and an RPI Top 100 record of 1-2 or a team with an RPI of 0.652 and an RPI Top 100 record of 9-5? No contest, right? First team was ETBU and the second was UW-Platteville. ETBU, at this point, is done. They will not be selected and no other team in Region X will be considered. Now, we have had cases where a RAC Chair will skip a team when something like this happens. Colorado College is the next team ranked so when I get done, I’ll do a little sanity check with them at the end.
Last round, we had Chris Newport over Stevenson so I’ll pick it up there. I’m not sure if I have stated this already in this article, but most national selections come down to Record, SOS and Ranked Results because there is so little cross region play. That’s why I’m not really talking about those other two criteria. (It’s also why I say that a team that is ranked ahead of another in region because of their head-to-head win is usually the worse choice nationally.) Looking at Ranked Results and it tips in CWRU favor over Chris Newport. With UW-Platteville, however, they win the comparison with both Record and SOS so game over on that one. UWP also destroys St Olaf so they are the next team taken and we replace them with Millikin. Remember that UW-Platteville was not publicly ranked. It’s my best guess that they would be the next team up in that region and, yes, teams that are not publicly ranked can be selected for the tournament.
Colby: 0.708/0.585/6-5 Coast Guard: 0.708/0.544/5-4 New Paltz: 0.750/0.522/2-3 Kean: 0.615/0.604/4-7 Stevenson: 0.760/0.593/4-4 Chris Newport: 0.679/0.634/3-9 Case Western Reserve: 0.720/0.576/4-5 Millikin: 0.690/0.612/4-6 St Olaf: 0.680/0.534/4-3 East Texas Baptist: 0.864/0.528/1-2
Starting back up with CWRU and they have a common opponent advantage over Millikin. I’m thinking if I dived into it, Millikin would win Ranked Results which would tie the two teams but I’m going to gloss over that for now and move forward with CWRU. CWRU has Record and SOS over St Olaf and maybe Olaf wasn’t the best team to rank there in Region IX. Saint Catherine is next and their SOS is only slightly better. We may be done with Region IX. CWRU gets the bid and are replaced by Ohio Northern.
Colby: 0.708/0.585/6-5 Coast Guard: 0.708/0.544/5-4 New Paltz: 0.750/0.522/2-3 Kean: 0.615/0.604/4-7 Stevenson: 0.760/0.593/4-4 Chris Newport: 0.679/0.634/3-9 Ohio Northern: 0.652/0.603/2-5 Millikin: 0.690/0.612/4-6 St Olaf: 0.680/0.534/4-3 East Texas Baptist: 0.864/0.528/1-2
We have five more spots left and I’m starting up again with Chris Newport who has Record and SOS advantages against ONU. Chris Newport has a common opponent advantage with Millikin and, once again, I could probably tie this up with Ranked Results but I’m going to gloss over it. St Olaf actually has a 0.001 advantage over Chris Newport but that’s just silly close so not going there. CNU gets the bid and will be replaced by Virginia Wesleyan.
Colby: 0.708/0.585/6-5 Coast Guard: 0.708/0.544/5-4 New Paltz: 0.750/0.522/2-3 Kean: 0.615/0.604/4-7 Stevenson: 0.760/0.593/4-4 Virginia Wesleyan: 0.828/0.575/3-5 Ohio Northern: 0.652/0.603/2-5 Millikin: 0.690/0.612/4-6 St Olaf: 0.680/0.534/4-3 East Texas Baptist: 0.864/0.528/1-2
Way back when, I had Stevenson ahead of the four New England and New York teams so I’ll start with them. Virginia Wesleyan has a common opponent advantage and Record so they go forward. ONU and Virginia Wesleyan tie so I have to dive into Ranked Results. ONU has wins over Albion (will go away) and Ohio Wesleyan. They have a win against CWRU (who comes into the rankings this week). Virginia Wesleyan has wins over Plymouth State (will go away), Chris Newport and Salisbury. RPI for both teams is close but I’ll give the nod to Virginia Wesleyan. Millikin also comes down to Ranked Results and their wins are Kean, Ithaca, Centre and Calvin. I’ve got to take those Ithaca and Calvin wins. Now, ONU has a head-to-head win over Millikin but Millikin has a common opponent advantage. Ranked Results goes to Millikin. St Olaf only has a chance against ONU so I’m going to take both Millikin and Virgnia Wesleyan here. They are replaced by (probably) Carthage and Centre.
Colby: 0.708/0.585/6-5 Coast Guard: 0.708/0.544/5-4 New Paltz: 0.750/0.522/2-3 Kean: 0.615/0.604/4-7 Stevenson: 0.760/0.593/4-4 Centre: 0.720/0.583/0-6 Ohio Northern: 0.652/0.603/2-5 Carthage: 0.577/0.632/3-6 St Olaf: 0.680/0.534/4-3 East Texas Baptist: 0.864/0.528/1-2
To start with, I don’t know if Carthage would be the team because we are very much past the published rankings in Region VIII. They actually tie Augustana so it depends on who’s Ranked Results you like. You could also make a case for UW-Eau Claire although their Record is 0.500. With Centre coming in, by the way, there is now a team ETBU can take down. There are only two more spots available and I’m back with Stevenson. Stevenson wins the comparison with ONU as I consider their SOS numbers a tie. ONU wins the Carthage comparison (I was curious). Carthage and Stevenson comes down to Ranked Results. Carthage’s wins are Cornell, Coe (goes away) and Gust Adolphus. Stevenson’s wins are Gettysburg, Kean, Lebanon Valley (goes away) and Eastern. Ugh. The RPI between these teams is really close but a slight edge to Stevenson. I think if these two teams played, I’d bet on Carthage but I think Stevenson gets the nod. The other thing to remember is that Region V has been amazing at this game the best couple of years so don’t bet against them this year. Stevenson is the pick. In other news, I just spot-checked Colorado College against our last two picks and they lose to both. In comes Franklin & Marshall for our final round and these are the only teams that can get the last spot.
Colby: 0.708/0.585/6-5 Coast Guard: 0.708/0.544/5-4 New Paltz: 0.750/0.522/2-3 Kean: 0.615/0.604/4-7 Franklin & Marshall: 0.762/0.599/1-5 Centre: 0.720/0.583/0-6 Ohio Northern: 0.652/0.603/2-5 Carthage: 0.577/0.632/3-6 St Olaf: 0.680/0.534/4-3 East Texas Baptist: 0.864/0.528/1-2
I’m going to start from scratch so the New England and New York regions are back in it. I think I still like Colby from the first four teams. Kean is close so if Colby wins out then I’ll dive deeper into that. F&M’s only ranked win is Pomona-Pitzer but they will pick up Whittier next week. Colby has Stevens, Coast Guard, Tufts, Middlebury and Wheaton. I want to poo-poo that but Stevens, Tufts and Middlebury aren’t that bad. I’m keeping Colby and bypassing Centre because they have no ranked wins. ONU is next and it comes down to Ranked Results with their wins being Albion and Ohio Wesleyan. I think you have to take Colby here. Carthage has a common opponent advantage and they had nice wins over Cornell and Gustavus Adolphus. RPI is close but I’m taking Carthage here but remember that I checked ONU and Carthage and thought ONU came out on top. We have a three-way tie! St Olaf loses to Colby and Carthage but hangs with ONU. Ranked Results doom ETBU. This last pick could go in any direction, which is probably what happens most years for real. Given the teams and the strength of the RACs I’m going to guess that Colby wins out here.
Alright here are your Pool C (at-large) teams:
MIT
Babson
Gettysburg
Mary Washington
Calvin
Carnegie Mellon
UW-Whitewater
WashU
Mt St Joseph
Middlebury
UW-Stevens Point
Ohio Wesleyan
Saint Benedict
La Verne
UW-Platteville
Case Western Reserve
Christopher Newport
Millikin
Virginia Wesleyan
Stevenson
Colby
I won’t be happy if New England gets four teams in and they probably won’t if the other RACs point out that they are always favored by the criteria but have only made the championship once (and lost) despite getting easy regionals and now (with extra regions) getting multiple regionals. (Where we won’t fly in teams from the West Coast.) No teams from Regions III and IV may not happen. They may get one in because everyone loves the loveable loser. I’m pretty confident Region V gets Stevenson in because they are awesome at this. Region VI did very well in my predictions. Region VII also did well and could get ONU in, too. Region VIII is just silly strong but will the NCAA select that many teams from a non-New England region? They haven’t in the past so I doubt they do this time. That’s why I didn’t take Carthage. My guess is that Millikin doesn’t go and is probably replaced by Kean. Region IX struggles after Saint Benedict and Region X struggles after La Verne.
Where would the regionals go in this instance? I know someone will ask. I have no clue! “Ned” is putting together a bracket predictor and maybe he could simulate it. For Region X teams; CMS, La Verne and Pacific Lutheran would head to the mid-west/Wisconsin area. Mary Hardin-Baylor and Trinity would head to Emory or another East Coast location.
I hope you enjoyed this little exercise and gained a better understanding of the process and how important SOS is when it comes to selection. The lesson here for ETBU, if they need an at-large, is you have to schedule stronger. You need to shake out funds that will get you flying a couple of times. You need three tournaments so condense your conference schedule. You need to convince UMHB to schedule stronger because they just killed you with their weak schedule. Yes, it hurts them as they are not even considered if they need an at-large but it also hurts the conference and the region. Very selfish, to be very frank about it.
(Update: With my NYU error, add them in and remove Colby.)
(Update: Keep Colby now with my Virginia Wesleyan error.)
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