ASC 2025 Statistics Loss (+ UCSC)

With this article, we are done with the Region X teams as I take care of the ever-shrinking ASC teams but with a dash added of UC Santa Cruz. This is actually the fourth in our series with just the national teams left to review. I’ve previously covered the SCAC, the SCIACand the NWC. As reminder as to why I do this:

Through the years, I’ve noticed that when it comes to DIII, it’s the Points that matter and really nothing else translates into wins and losses. Programs seem to more easily replace setters and liberos than hitters so when we see a Points loss of around 45%, we get concerned. (Points are kills + aces + blocks.) We’ve also seen that the bigger programs are more easily able to replace those losses because of their ability to recruit and because of the talent on their bench. Still, even the biggest programs will struggle with Points losses start to exceed that 45% mark.

Remember that we still have Super Seniors out there so these statistics are always going to be off for some schools. Of course, it doesn’t factor in players that graduate early or just leave the program before they are seniors.

Here are the statistics lost to senior graduation in the ASC sorted by Points Lost:

Here are the statistics lost for UC Santa Cruz:

At first glance, the ASC is looking really good for the upcoming season. No one is even close to the 45% mark. We lose a couple of setters and half the teams lose their libero but, remember, only the points matter here. As for UCSC, they are in the same situation losing their libero but maintaining most of their points.

LeTourneau starts us off and they will be losing their amazing libero in Morgan Nix. Regardless of what history says that will be a tough player to replace. The big hitter that they lose is Allison Smith and her 242 points. They do return their top two hitters and have a number of rising juniors that should help. Because of this, I expect the YellowJackets to at least maintain their 2023 results if not improve slightly.

Oh, UTD. What did you go and do? Leaving us for DII is so sad for me personally. I will always remember the epic matches between my daughter’s team and the Comets. Of course, the regional finals win against them on their home court will never be forgotten. Hey, I don’t need to be nice to them anymore, right? I guess nothing is official as we expect a formal announcement in the coming months. I believe they will do the Sul Ross State maneuver and stay in the ASC one more season but be ineligible for the conference tournament or the NCAA Tournament. Erin Rogers is the big hitter that will be missed but setters Emma Sevening and Izzy Sundquist are also out the door. This team does have a number of underclassmen and they recruit well so they should be fine. Of course, for our perspective, they will just be running out the string.

Mary Hardin-Baylor put up a 27-win season but lost in the conference tournament and didn’t receive an at-large invite. They did play a silly easy schedule which led to that and I’ll be interested to see if that approach changes this year. Don’t get me wrong, this is a really good team and I think they would benefit a bit from being challenged more. The big hit will be Hannah Frasca who has been a wonderful player to watch play these last 4-years. It’s really a triple-whammy because she was so good in the service receive and defensively in addition to pounding out over 300 points. The Cru are still loaded, however, and should have enough on the bench to compete for the ASC title.

The last three teams are all under 10% points loss, which is always a good place to be. Howard Payne had a great rebuilding year finishing with 12-wins and anything less than 0.500 this season will have to seem like a disappointment. They do lose setter Riley Brittain but have their hitters coming back not to mention a rather large roster filled with underclassmen. Exciting times for the Yellow Jackets (yes, LeTourneau and HPU share a mascot but spell it differently).

ETBU is probably the team to watch for in the ASC and nationally. They won the title last year and made it to the second round in the NCAA Tournament losing in 5-sets. They will be returning Avery Reid and Graycee Mosley who combined for nearly 1000 points between them so they are in really good shape. We do say goodbye to another amazing libero in Lillie Hill so certainly a hole that will need to be plugged. It sure seems like a number of great liberos are leaving Region X this year across all four conferences. All-in-all, ETBU looks ready to run with anyone in 2024 and will be a tough out in the tournament.

Hardin-Simmons is losing DS Lydia Headley but look to be retaining everyone else. What’s fun about HSU is that they were right at 16 Points/Set last year so they probably underachieved that statistic in their record. If we say their base is 16 for 2024 then they really just need to improve 1 Point/Set to make this conference a three-horse race and nobody rides horses better than Cowgirls. (Yeah, a little corny but once I started writing the sentence I had to finish it that way.)

Switching over to our C2C representative, UC Santa Cruz, and we see that they take a hit on the defensive end and a small hit offensively. They have three seniors listed in the NCAA database in Sydney Ahrendt, Emily Pasion and Peyton Tazelaar and each was very important to the Banana Slugs these past four years. Statistically, it’s Tazelaar that had the most points but Ahrendt was a heavy hitter that was hurt off and on in 2023 so she will be missed, as well. Both Tazelaar and Pasion contributed the most to the service receive and defensively so that will have to be addressed, too. This program seems really stable to me now and pointed in the right direction. They recruit well and play a tough schedule that always puts them in contention for a tournament bid. Do they have enough in their recruits and bench to improve on that 14.52 Points/Set number is the real question. I would be surprised if they are below 0.500 in 2024 but they do need to secure a couple of big hitters.

Looking at all four of the Region X conferences and the ASC seems to be in the best position statistically. I really hope we see strong schedules from HSU, UMHB and ETBU this year because they look to have a real chance at getting multiple NCAA Tournament bids. I still see the strongest teams sitting in the SCIAC with the deepest conference being the SCAC. The NWC looks to be the most wide open and maybe the only one that won’t have a consensus preseason favorite.

Just the national teams to go but there are a lot of them.