An NPI Hypothetical

We all know the NCAA Power Index (NPI) is the greatest thing to happen to DIII volleyball since this website was created. What can I say…greatness comes in twos. Last season, NPI didn’t mess up and was perfect in every way, right? There really wasn’t a controversy with the at-large selections but it was due in large part by a couple of teams earning their conference’s Automatic Qualifier (AQ) rather than being eligible for an at-large. Well, let’s go over a hypothetical for 2025 that was actually similar to what I complained about in the NPI simulations and see how perfection could look.

First hypothetical deals with Whittier and their 2025 at-large qualifications. From the schedule analysis done on this team, we know that their maximum NPI is 72.62 and that they are playing 7 elite teams on their 2025 schedule. We know that they can afford to lose 6 matches and still be above the anticipated 2025 at-large cut-line. Assuming they are above the cut-line at the end of the season, this would mean that Whittier had beaten one elite program (say one of the CMS matches) in addition to 2024 Quality Win Bonus teams like UC Santa Cruz three times, Gallaudet, Mount Union, and Pomona-Pitzer twice. They probably take another loss in the SCIAC semi-final match to a CMS or La Verne (both considered 2024 elite teams), which would make their at-large chances a little dicer. Their true NPI would be something like a 60 but NPI would probably have them in the 59 range. Their Opponent NPI number based on 2024 results is 0.542, which is respectable. NPI says they may be an at-large team. What do you think?

Our second hypothetical deals with Mary Hardin-Baylor and their 2025 at-large qualifications. I didn’t do an analysis on them but their schedule has been released. In a nutshell, they play two elite teams with both being in-conference ETBU with their next highest 2024 NPI opponent being Methodist at 55.90. Their Opponent NPI number based on 2024 results is 0.495. This is the worst number of the teams I’ve looked at so far. Their maximum NPI is 65.75 (also the worst I’ve seen), which is only achievable if they win all of their matches. If they lose their two matches to ETBU but win every other match their NPI will be 60.67. This will be above the anticipated at-large cut-line. The conference Mary Hardin-Baylor plays in (the ASC) only has 4 teams this season. They will expand to 6 teams next year, which will allow them to keep their volleyball AQ. Let’s say they beat Hardin-Simmons in the semi-finals of the ASC Tournament and lose to ETBU (for a third time) in the finals. Their NPI would move to 60.17, which is still above the cut-line. They would earn an at-large bid with a 25-3 record. They would have one win over a QWB team in Methodist (who were barely over the 55.5 threshold) and it would be a home win to boot. The rest of their wins would all be against teams with a 2024 NPI of less than 55. If Mary Hardin-Baylor plays like a true 56 or 57 NPI team in 2025, this outcome is very possible. It’s just that NPI would think they are really a 60 NPI team. NPI says they are an at-large team. What do you think?

Both teams are out of Region X and I can guarantee you that with the old selection system and the RAC applying the criteria, Whittier would be ranked higher than Mary Hardin-Baylor. It’s quite possible with that poor schedule that Mary Hardin-Baylor would not be ranked in the published list of seven teams.

I’m disappointed to see Mary Hardin-Baylor taking this approach to scheduling again. They had an improved schedule (although not great) last season. It is true that it only takes one loss to a non-ETBU team for Mary Hardin-Baylor to be done as far as an at-large bid goes (assuming those losses to ETBU). The problem is that they are probably going to be the heavy favorite in all of those matches. The other disappointment here is that it basically eliminates every player from that team from getting AVCA honors before the season even starts. The AVCA likes to look at player performances against the elite and in this hypothetical that would consist of only the two losses to ETBU. The last point I’d make is that the three best out-of-conference teams within a relatively short driving distance are Trinity, Southwestern (30-minute drive away) and Texas Lutheran. None of those teams are on the schedule. It’s so easy for Mary Hardin-Baylor to play a respectable schedule but they choose not to do it. I don’t understand it but I respect their decision for whatever reasons they have. But, in no way should a team playing this schedule be allowed anywhere near an at-large bid and the current NPI formula will allow it. This will be an interesting follow during the season and a big hit on what perfection looks like if it happens.